Sure, if we have no injuries we'll likely do better, but what are the chances of that? Heaton is made of paper, Jack is fouled hundreds of times a game and SJM + Mings dive head first into every challenge. It's also a more compact season, so more fatigue and likely more injuries.
I think people underestimate how much more of a squad we need next season. We have very little to offer from the bench, so having the likes of Trez, AEG and Connor as subs is key. I don't think we have anything like that amount of quality in every position.
The days of MON playing 14 players in a season are going to look pretty distant (if they don't already).