Relegation Thread Version...99?!

[Kingman]

26 minutes ago, PussEKatt said:

With that sort of money, if we dont come streight back up we will not be able to compete with the clubs that get relegated.

Will the relegated clubs still get parachute payments ? and how much ?

Would estimate the teams that get relegated as of next season (2016-2017) will be £50m better off with the new parachute payments over 3 years. (Give or take a couple of quid)

Financially there is already a large gap between the Premier League and the Championship, where clubs currently receive around £4 million a season, comprising £1.9 million central distribution from the Football League deal plus a £2.3 million solidarity payment from the Premier League. Those clubs relegated from the Premier League receive a parachute payment, which was £24 million for year 1 in the 2013/14 season, in place of the solidarity payment.

 

 

This means that the majority of clubs in the Championship last season received a hefty £58 million less than the club that finished bottom in the Premier League. Those clubs receiving parachute payments had £22 million more than a “normal” Championship club, but still £36 million less than the lowest Premier League club.

 

 

From 2016/17 that gap is likely to become an abyss, despite the Football League announcing last week what they described as “a significant financial boost on two fronts” with an extension to the current broadcasting agreement with Sky Sports and a new (higher) mechanism being put in place for the solidarity agreement.

 

 

 

 

No financial details were divulged for the Football League TV deal. It was portrayed as “the most lucrative in The Football League’s history”, but it is only a one-year extension covering the 2018/19 season (with the League also having an option to further extend the arrangement into 2019/20). Given the deal before the current one was worth £2.5 million a season (i.e. higher than he current £1.9 million), let’s assume that the extension might be worth around £3 million.

 

The new approach to the solidarity payment is more interesting, as this has now effectively been formally linked to the size of the Premier League TV deal, being equivalent to 30% of a third-year parachute payment. Note: League 1 and League 2 clubs will respectively receive 4.5% and 3% of a third-year payment. Based on my assumptions, that would increase the annual solidarity payment to £6.5 million from the current £2.3 million.

 

 

That would imply that TV money for a Championship club would rise to £8-9 million, while a club with a year 1 parachute payment would receive a mighty £38 million. However, here’s the thing: the gap to the bottom Premier League club would still increase from £58 million to £84 million. Mind the gap, indeed.

 

 

 

Note that the 2016/17 parachute payment to relegated Premier League clubs of £36 million is an estimate, based on the current approach, whereby the amount distributed as parachute payments is linked to the size of the TV deal, specifically to the equal shares received by Premier League clubs for both the domestic and overseas deals: 55% in year 1, 45% in year 2 and 25% in each of years 3 and 4 (adding up to a total of 150%).

 

Last week’s Football League announcement noted that from 2016/17 parachute payments will be reduced from the current four seasons to three seasons. I have assumed that the total paid out will be the same in percentage terms (i.e. 150%) and I have also maintained the methodology that has higher payments in the early years. There is obviously a number of assumptions here, but the central point about the gap to the Premier League increasing is likely to remain valid.

 

 

It does feel like the Football League has to be grateful for any crumbs that they might be given from the top table. Granted, this is still a lot of money, but everything is relative. The risk is that clubs will continue to extend themselves either in pursuit of promotion to the Premier League or to stay in the top tier. 

 

http://swissramble.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/the-premier-league-tv-deal-master-and.html

Edited February 7, 2016 by Kingman

[PussEKatt]

10 minutes ago, PaulC said:

They showed the cost of their team on MOTD. The combined cost was little over 22 million. Our team cost more than that

And how much did they spend in the transfer window compared to us ?

[PaulC]

They only bought Gray for 3.7 mil, didnt they? But look at what they spent in the summer compared to us.  

[PussEKatt]

Kingman:

So, after 2 seasons the championship will have an elite of 6 clubs that will bounce between the Premier League and the championship and the other championship clubs will not get a look in,except for the odd exception every now and then ?

[Kingman]

32 minutes ago, PussEKatt said:

Kingman:

So, after 2 seasons the championship will have an elite of 6 clubs that will bounce between the Premier League and the championship and the other championship clubs will not get a look in,except for the odd exception every now and then ?

 

Yeah, I guess we could be looking at a new "Super Breed Of Yo-Yo Clubs"  

[VillaChris]

1 hour ago, Kingman said:

 

Only one point worse off than Leicester this time last season! 

1		(1)	Chelsea	25	18	5	2	55	21	34	59
2		(2)	Manchester City	25	15	7	3	51	25	26	52
3		(5)	Manchester United	25	13	8	4	43	24	19	47
4		(3)	Southampton	25	14	4	7	38	17	21	46
5		(4)	Arsenal	25	13	6	6	47	28	19	45
6		(6)	Tottenham Hotspur	25	13	4	8	39	34	5	43
7		(7)	Liverpool	25	12	6	7	36	29	7	42
8		(8)	West Ham United	25	10	8	7	36	28	8	38
9		(9)	Swansea City	25	9	7	9	28	33	-5	34
10		(10)	Stoke City	25	9	6	10	28	33	-5	33
11		(11)	Newcastle United	25	8	8	9	31	37	-6	32
12		(12)	Everton	25	6	9	10	31	35	-4	27
13		(13)	Crystal Palace	25	6	9	10	27	35	-8	27
14		(16)	West Bromwich Albion	25	6	8	11	24	34	-10	26
15		(14)	Sunderland	25	4	12	9	22	36	-14	24
16		(15)	Hull City	25	5	8	12	23	34	-11	23
17		(17)	Queens Park Rangers	25	6	4	15	26	43	-17	22
18		(18)	Aston Villa	25	5	7	13	12	34	-22	22
19		(19)	Burnley	25	4	9	12	24	43	-19	21
20		(20)	Leicester City	25	4	5	16	22	40	-18	17

 May 

1		(1)	Chelsea	38	26	9	3	73	32	41	87
2		(2)	Manchester City	38	24	7	7	83	38	45	79
3		(3)	Arsenal	38	22	9	7	71	36	35	75
4		(4)	Manchester United	38	20	10	8	62	37	25	70
5		(6)	Tottenham Hotspur	38	19	7	12	58	53	5	64
6		(5)	Liverpool	38	18	8	12	52	48	4	62
7		(7)	Southampton	38	18	6	14	54	33	21	60
8		(8)	Swansea City	38	16	8	14	46	49	-3	56
9		(9)	Stoke City	38	15	9	14	48	45	3	54
10		(12)	Crystal Palace	38	13	9	16	47	51	-4	48
11		(10)	Everton	38	12	11	15	48	50	-2	47
12		(11)	West Ham United	38	12	11	15	44	47	-3	47
13		(13)	West Bromwich Albion	38	11	11	16	38	51	-13	44
14		(14)	Leicester City	38	11	8	19	46	55	-9	41
15		(17)	Newcastle United	38	10	9	19	40	63	-23	39
16		(15)	Sunderland	38	7	17	14	31	53	-22	38
17		(16)	Aston Villa	38	10	8	20	31	57	-26	38
18		(18)	Hull City	38	8	11	19	33	51	-18	35
19		(19)	Burnley	38	7	12	19	28	53	-25	33
20		(20)	Queens Park Rangers	38	8	6	24	42	73	-31	30

 

http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/matchday/league-table.html?season=2014-2015&month=MAY&timelineView=date&toDate=1432422000000&tableView=CURRENT_STANDINGS

The trouble with last season's table is Leicester were only 5 points adrift of getting out and there were plenty of teams on 24-27 points.

It's annoying Swansea have gone on such a good run lately as their last four games are very tough....away to Leicester, home to Liverpool, away to West Ham (last ever game at Upton Park) and home to Man. City who hopefully will still be in title contention.

I think to stay up we also must win at Swansea.

[useless]

Leicester's run in, last season was very kind in terms of opposition, in comparison to other teams who were in the relegation battle and in comparison to our run in, this season. That said I don't think we should be focusing on what other teams haven't or have done in the past, it's of no use to us whatsoever. We've just go to do what we've got to do.

[Tayls]

We do just need to focus on what we have to do, see out the season, try and get some wins and a 'style' of play figured out. 

Unfotunately I think we will be relegated, it's too late for us now. With only 3 wins from 25, you'd think we'd have to win about 7 of our remaining 13 games in order to stand a chance... That isn't going to happen. I'd like to see us give it a go but I'm afraid we have all the ingredients that make up a championship bound side. 

Massive shame, but, there we go. We had enough warning. 

[Kingman]

Leicester last season, Remember the season before last, In the last 6/7 games Sunderland got results at Man Utd, Man City and Arenal whilst also beating Sandwell Town and Cardiff to beat the drop! 

Theres Always A Way Chaps!.. 

Edited February 7, 2016 by Kingman

[Tayls]

Yea don't worry about Leicester. They have carried on that form from the final 13 games last season and are about to win the Premiership... We can safely say we wont be recreating that form. 

Sunderland got lucky, just as we have for the past 5 seasons - relegation will get you in the end though...

Edited February 7, 2016 by Tayls

[VillaChris]

I've always said 9 wins this season will be enough as we'll draw a couple more this season it's fair to say.

So we need 6 more.

As I've said before I break down each month and needing 7 points on average. We narrowly failed in January getting 5.

Already this month we're on 3 so 4 points from Stoke and Liverpool is needed.

April it looks possible given the fixtures but March looks very hard.

But if we can average around that each month then we'd go into the Newcastle home game on 34/35 points. We certainly wouldn't be relegated at that point so I'm sure pretty much everyone would sign up to that scenario.

[HanoiVillan]

2 hours ago, PussEKatt said:

With that sort of money, if we dont come streight back up we will not be able to compete with the clubs that get relegated.

Will the relegated clubs still get parachute payments ? and how much ?

If final league positions were actually determined purely by revenue, we could stop the troublesome process of actually playing football, and just declare Man Utd the champions for all eternity. 

[Gary Thomas]

Yep its tough but history tells us crazy things happen in the last 10 or so games. It's a cliché but every games like a cup (semi) now. We should go into every game like we have to win that one game to survive, regardless of who we're playing, home or away, we must win it.  I don't care if it is Arsenal, Man City, Man United, lets go at that them as hard as we can and not give them too much respect.  If it proves not to be enough so be it, but lets at least go down fighting.

 

Edited February 7, 2016 by Gary Thomas

[Woodytom]

I'm actually as confident as I've ever been for a while tbh.

[Woodytom]

Ppl are right in that the scenario is different to leicester's however look how far they survived by. They stayed up comfortably in the end. We don't need to stay up by 6 points as nice as that would be.

 

[Stevo985]

3 minutes ago, Woodytom said:

I'm actually as confident as I've ever been for a while tbh.

I'm as confident as I've ever been in our ability to beat other teams (this season I mean). I actually think Remi has got us well capable of getting results now.

Still don't think it will be enough though.

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, PussEKatt said:

Kingman:

So, after 2 seasons the championship will have an elite of 6 clubs that will bounce between the Premier League and the championship and the other championship clubs will not get a look in,except for the odd exception every now and then ?

 

1 hour ago, Kingman said:

 

Yeah, I guess we could be looking at a new "Super Breed Of Yo-Yo Clubs"  

I can pretty much guarantee that this won't happen. 

[YGabbana]

Theres not enough goals in the team to get results at those teams though imo.

[Woodytom]

8 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

I'm as confident as I've ever been in our ability to beat other teams (this season I mean). I actually think Remi has got us well capable of getting results now.

Still don't think it will be enough though.

No I don't think it will be enough but it's nice to have a bit of hope. Didn't realise we were around 11th in the form table so perhaps I've been harsh on garde and the team the last few weeks. 

Be amazing if gabby made us all eat humble pie and dragged us to safety.

[dont_do_it_doug.]

No I don't think it will be enough but it's nice to have a bit of hope. Didn't realise we were around 11th in the form table so perhaps I've been harsh on garde and the team the last few weeks. 

Be amazing if gabby made us all eat humble pie and dragged us to safety.

A form table which includes Sunderland away, which is as close as I've been to giving up. We turned up to the premier league 5 games ago and game by game we are slowly pulling away from the abysmal side we were.

Whether that form continues is another matter and where I'm at the moment is that I'd like us to make a good go of it...

Interesting to note that Bournemouth have won 5 and drawn 2 of their last 10. If we're organised, with a good wind behind us, I think THIS team is capable of that and I'd absolutely take going in to the last 3, Newcastle included, with 33 points.

I'd take going to Arsenal having to win.