AValon Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 One important factor in this for me: Arsenal and Tottenham both contesting fourth. Bad enough if its two sides cities apart vying for the CL, but this also has the 'local bragging rights' issue to it. There'll be no corners cut in either game and I think Wigan and Sunderland will both have to play the games of their lives to get out of trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 (edited) The thing about draws is that they rarely come about through choice (unless you're Alex McLeish). If Arsenal score early for example then Wigan score soon after but fail to score again Arsenal are going to spend the rest of the game trying to get that winning goal. They're not going to suddenly let Wigan score in the dying seconds if they think they won't be able to get that winning goal. One important factor in this for me: Arsenal and Tottenham both contesting fourth. Bad enough if its two sides cities apart vying for the CL, but this also has the 'local bragging rights' issue to it. There'll be no corners cut in either game and I think Wigan and Sunderland will both have to play the games of their lives to get out of trouble. Agreed. Nothing's for certain but given that Man United have already won the title I don't think there's two sides I'd rather Wigan and Spurs playing than Arsenal and Spurs fighting for CL and local bragging rights. Edited May 13, 2013 by Mantis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pongotastic Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 The thing about draws is that they rarely come about through choice (unless you're Alex McLeish). If Arsenal score early for example then Wigan score soon after but fail to score again Arsenal are going to spend the rest of the game trying to get that winning goal. They're not going to suddenly let Wigan score in the dying seconds if they think they won't be able to get that winning goal. One important factor in this for me: Arsenal and Tottenham both contesting fourth. Bad enough if its two sides cities apart vying for the CL, but this also has the 'local bragging rights' issue to it. There'll be no corners cut in either game and I think Wigan and Sunderland will both have to play the games of their lives to get out of trouble. Agreed. Nothing's for certain but given that Man United have already won the title I don't think there's two sides I'd rather Wigan and Spurs playing than Arsenal and Spurs fighting for CL and local bragging rights. Definitely. Imagine one of them playing the Baggies and the other lining up against QPR on the last day that would be a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AValon Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 The thing about draws is that they rarely come about through choice (unless you're Alex McLeish). If Arsenal score early for example then Wigan score soon after but fail to score again Arsenal are going to spend the rest of the game trying to get that winning goal. They're not going to suddenly let Wigan score in the dying seconds if they think they won't be able to get that winning goal. One important factor in this for me: Arsenal and Tottenham both contesting fourth. Bad enough if its two sides cities apart vying for the CL, but this also has the 'local bragging rights' issue to it. There'll be no corners cut in either game and I think Wigan and Sunderland will both have to play the games of their lives to get out of trouble.Agreed. Nothing's for certain but given that Man United have already won the title I don't think there's two sides I'd rather Wigan and Spurs playing than Arsenal and Spurs fighting for CL and local bragging rights.It would be the cruellest of fates for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyClarke Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 On Tuesday both teams are going to chase it, particularly if Arsenal score first, the game will be stretched which is exactly what we want. The sooner Wigan lose their discipline and go looking for a goal the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmytheirishvillain Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 I know Arsenal badly need to win against Wigan, and probably will, but has anyone considered the following curious fact about that game: If Arsenal are unable to win, from their point of view it’s probably BETTER FOR THEM TO LOSE THAN TO DRAW. How come? IF ARSENAL DRAW, they will be one point behind Spurs going into the last day. To qualify for the Champions League, they must try to win at Newcastle and hope Spurs fail to beat Sunderland. The problem with this is that, BECAUSE ARSENAL HAVE DRAWN, SUNDERLAND WILL BE ALREADY SAFE (barring an almost inconceivable 11-goal swing in goal difference between them and Wigan). So how much hope do Arsenal have that Spurs (chasing Champions League) will fail to beat Sunderland (already safe barring freak results)? Not much. Spurs winning by a goal or two against a team who (at most) just need to avoid losing about 8-0 would seem to be very likely. IF ARSENAL LOSE, they will be two points behind Spurs, but because of their better goal difference they can still finish above Spurs if they win their last game and Spurs fail to beat Sunderland. However, the big difference is that BECAUSE ARSENAL HAVE LOST, SUNDERLAND WILL BADLY NEED A POINT AT SPURS. A 3-way relegation fight will be on and Sunderland will have to pray for Villa to get a result at Wigan if they lose at Spurs. SPURS WOULD THUS HAVE A MUCH HARDER GAME. The only way a draw could turn out to be of any use to Arsenal would be if they then drew their last game and Spurs lost at home to Sunderland (who wouldn’t need anything), which seems rather unlikely So... if Arsenal are drawing with Wigan with seconds to go, and Wigan’s last desperate attack has ended in a free kick to Arsenal on their edge of their own penalty area, what do they do? Do they lump the ball forward with the referee preparing to blow the final whistle and virtually end their hopes, or do they put the ball in their own net to give themselves a bit more hope on the last day (thereby landing Sunderland and Villa in the do-do?). OK, I know that’s not a very likely scenario... But all the same, if the scores are level going into added time in a game that both teams are desperate to win, the fact that a draw is probably LESS THAN USELESS for Arsenal would make me fear the worst. Haha no way mate if it's 1-1 say arsenal are not gonna be thinking that. Arsenals only thoughts at this moment is beat Wigan and Newcastle and their getting champions league. I do worry what winger said that he wish arsenal had played at weekend that the break was unwelcomed but there's no way in their last prem league home game 2 points behind their nearest rivals that they will let Wigan win if it's drawing in the last few mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villaglint Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 What is everyone's approach to this game - not sure I can watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted May 13, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted May 13, 2013 Well it might as well be Villa who are playing, so I'll be watching, probably in agony. This feels like it will be the most I have supported another team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NormandyVillan Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 I know Arsenal badly need to win against Wigan, and probably will, but has anyone considered the following curious fact about that game: If Arsenal are unable to win, from their point of view it’s probably BETTER FOR THEM TO LOSE THAN TO DRAW. How come? IF ARSENAL DRAW, they will be one point behind Spurs going into the last day. To qualify for the Champions League, they must try to win at Newcastle and hope Spurs fail to beat Sunderland. The problem with this is that, BECAUSE ARSENAL HAVE DRAWN, SUNDERLAND WILL BE ALREADY SAFE (barring an almost inconceivable 11-goal swing in goal difference between them and Wigan). So how much hope do Arsenal have that Spurs (chasing Champions League) will fail to beat Sunderland (already safe barring freak results)? Not much. Spurs winning by a goal or two against a team who (at most) just need to avoid losing about 8-0 would seem to be very likely. IF ARSENAL LOSE, they will be two points behind Spurs, but because of their better goal difference they can still finish above Spurs if they win their last game and Spurs fail to beat Sunderland. However, the big difference is that BECAUSE ARSENAL HAVE LOST, SUNDERLAND WILL BADLY NEED A POINT AT SPURS. A 3-way relegation fight will be on and Sunderland will have to pray for Villa to get a result at Wigan if they lose at Spurs. SPURS WOULD THUS HAVE A MUCH HARDER GAME. The only way a draw could turn out to be of any use to Arsenal would be if they then drew their last game and Spurs lost at home to Sunderland (who wouldn’t need anything), which seems rather unlikely So... if Arsenal are drawing with Wigan with seconds to go, and Wigan’s last desperate attack has ended in a free kick to Arsenal on their edge of their own penalty area, what do they do? Do they lump the ball forward with the referee preparing to blow the final whistle and virtually end their hopes, or do they put the ball in their own net to give themselves a bit more hope on the last day (thereby landing Sunderland and Villa in the do-do?). OK, I know that’s not a very likely scenario... But all the same, if the scores are level going into added time in a game that both teams are desperate to win, the fact that a draw is probably LESS THAN USELESS for Arsenal would make me fear the worst. Haha no way mate if it's 1-1 say arsenal are not gonna be thinking that. Arsenals only thoughts at this moment is beat Wigan and Newcastle and their getting champions league. I do worry what winger said that he wish arsenal had played at weekend that the break was unwelcomed but there's no way in their last prem league home game 2 points behind their nearest rivals that they will let Wigan win if it's drawing in the last few mins You're right of course that they won't deliberately let a goal in under any circumstances. But I can imagine the commentator picking up on what I've been talking about if Arsenal do let in a late winner. "Ironically, the situation at both ends of the table means that controversial last-gasp goal for Wigan might just prove to be a blessing in disguise for Arsenal..." None of us would be amused by the irony, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 BetVictor now offering 185/1 on the following results - Wigan win v Arsenal - Wigan win v Villa - Sunderland win v Spurs And 84/1 for - Wigan win v Arsenal - Wigan win v Villa - Sunderland draw v Spurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Not necessarily. Why its the only set of results which will send us down so surely the odds are the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 my pregnant wife and i had a bit of an argument today because I have been neglecting her with all this relegation worry... she said the words I never wanted to hear from my wife..... ... its only a game You need to buy her a copy of "The football sayings of Bill Shankly" (Some people think football is a matter of life and death etc...) and remind her ...it's only a baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa-revolution Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 my pregnant wife and i had a bit of an argument today because I have been neglecting her with all this relegation worry... she said the words I never wanted to hear from my wife..... ... its only a game I'm totally shocked! Why couldn't she just have said I've been seeing a lot of our milkman lately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pongotastic Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 BetVictor now offering 185/1 on the following results - Wigan win v Arsenal - Wigan win v Villa - Sunderland win v Spurs And 84/1 for - Wigan win v Arsenal - Wigan win v Villa - Sunderland draw v Spurs These seem to be the only two scenarios which would relegate us. Yet staggeringly Villa are only 33/1 to go down. If you were to put a tenner on us going down it would be much wiser to put a fiver each on those two scenarios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Not necessarily. Why its the only set of results which will send us down so surely the odds are the same? I have no idea but go on Betvictor and see for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArteSuave Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 BetVictor now offering 185/1 on the following results - Wigan win v Arsenal - Wigan win v Villa - Sunderland win v Spurs And 84/1 for - Wigan win v Arsenal - Wigan win v Villa - Sunderland draw v Spurs Which puts it at 58/1 for either to happen by my reckoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted May 13, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted May 13, 2013 I had 47/1 on bet365 for the treble with a Sunderland draw or win double chance yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mockingbird_franklin Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 probably because people are more likely to place a bet on a single event happening, rather than work out the events that need to happen for that event to happen and bet on those, and bookies alter their odds relevant to the amount of money backing an event happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mockingbird_franklin Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 so the poor odds? it's down to all the villa fans placing insurance bets on us going down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cliffy Biro Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Never got that, i could never bet on those results because i could win 2 grand and still feel like shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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