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Relegation


Amo69

The Drop  

609 members have voted

  1. 1. Will Villa Go Down?

    • Yes
      238
    • No
      283
    • Unsure
      88


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True, we certainly could use a few more goals scored from midfield BUT dont forget that irrespective of who is scoring the goals, we were ahead against ManUre,WBA,Everton, and a few other teams and we just let our lead slip away.I think what we need more than more goals from midfield is a plan B.When we get 2 goals up we should revert to a defensive formation and try to hang on to our 2/3 goal lead.We must be harder to score against if we are concentrating on defending.

 

 

 

 

 

 

We get ahead enough times that we really should have quite a few more points than we have ?  

That's certainly true

 

When you break down our results by got into lead/went behind, the results look like this:

 

Got lead/won - 5 

Got lead/drew - 6

Got lead/lost - 2

 

Went behind/won - 0

Went behind/drew - 1

Went behind/lost - 10

 

0-0 draw - 2

 

So there are 18 potential points lost from games where we were ahead. If we'd just got half of those, we would be on 33 points and in mid table.

 

I think the other main issue to come out of those figures of course is how helpless we are when we go behind. We've only managed 1 point from that position - against West Brom (some chap called Bent scored late on ;) ).

 

It's been a feature of Villa teams in recent years that we are quite resilient and are able to rescue losing positions, to balance our penchant for letting leads slip away, even under McFool and Foollier (and it was a particular strength of MON's teams). We lost a lot of points from winning positions over the last two seasons (22 under McFool and a whopping 26 under Foollier) but we also picked up a good few points after going behind.

 

So you could argue that is the important change. Losing points from ahead has become a way of life but our utter failure to have any plan for when we fall behind is maybe what has hurt us most.

 

Except that your comments/moment may be selective.

 

Scenario - We enter a Cup final against one of the best teams in Europe.... I would guess if you asked 80% of the fans before the game.... what would you hope for?   an early goal/lead.

 

from that you would kind of expect to close the game somewhat and make it difficult for one of the best teams around to function..... a little like Barcelona v Inter Milan   and just recently Barcelona v AC Milan or even Villa under Saunders.

 

Instead due to a complete lack of ball control basically through the whole team.....despite an ability to smash & Grab results away from home in the league ........we fall over the ball on the half way line and conceed an inoccuous goal....but instead choose to blame the ref for not sending off vidic ( which he should have done granted)

 

so much for the great defensive work under MON....we need to look at ourselves a bit more.

 

Oh not to mention Chelsea away....hush my mouth.

 

PS This defensive flaw has been around since Martin Laursen went.

I dont agree with that.For a start we are not going ahead and then losing/drawing to Barca or AC Milan,we are going ahead and drawing/losing to teams like WBA,Swansea etc.As for our defensive weakness,I would say that any PL team that can not win when they are 2 goals up should not be in the PL.

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Except that your comments/moment may be selective.

 

Scenario - We enter a Cup final against one of the best teams in Europe.... I would guess if you asked 80% of the fans before the game.... what would you hope for?   an early goal/lead.

 

from that you would kind of expect to close the game somewhat and make it difficult for one of the best teams around to function..... a little like Barcelona v Inter Milan   and just recently Barcelona v AC Milan or even Villa under Saunders.

 

Instead due to a complete lack of ball control basically through the whole team.....despite an ability to smash & Grab results away from home in the league ........we fall over the ball on the half way line and conceed an inoccuous goal....but instead choose to blame the ref for not sending off vidic ( which he should have done granted)

 

so much for the great defensive work under MON....we need to look at ourselves a bit more.

 

Oh not to mention Chelsea away....hush my mouth.

 

PS This defensive flaw has been around since Martin Laursen went.

TRO, I've read this through a couple of times and I can't really fathom your argument.

 

It's not helpful to talk about cup matches because they ebb and flow, teams go behind, get back ahead, get pulled back, and that's what cup football is all about.

 

We're talking in this thread about the bread and butter issue of league survival, consolidating points, controlling games and getting to a safe position.

 

In that context, there has been some discussion about whether lack of goals of poor defending is the worse problem for Villa this season. My post, that you reacted to in the quote above, was agreeing with PussEKat that  failure to hold on to leads is a big problem this season. So it is and the figures I quoted confirm this. But I also pointed out how woeful we have been when going behind. We have fallen behind in 10 games this season and lost them all. In only one have we gone behind and actually managed to come back and get a point (or two if you count the Swansea game where we went behind, got back into the lead then fell to a draw). This is a massive change from previous seasons where we have generally been better at getting points back from losing positions, even in the comparatively weak performances we've had in the last two seasons. So my point was that we have got used to Villa leaking points in recent seasons but a big change this season is how we haven't been able to balance that with clawing points back when we go down.

 

Like it or not, we were  better at that under MON - it was one of the features of his teams. Look at the number of points we have gained from losing positions in recent seasons:

 

05/06 - 8

06/07 - 17

07/08 - 19

08/09 - 15

09/10 - 14

10/11 - 8

11/12 - 11

12/13 - 1  so far (or 2 if you count the Swansea 2-2 but I see that as 2 points lost from a winning position).

 

So you can see it is just a fact that we won lots of points from losing positions under MON and we seem almost completely incapable of doing so this season. I'm not being selective and I'm not saying this is a good thing - you might ask why we got into losing positions so often under MON and why we had to pull back so often.  However, it is simply a fact that we gained a lot of points this way under MON, less so under Foollier and McFool and almost not at all under Lambert and that is a major reason for our current struggles, given that we continue to leak points when we are ahead.

 

I hope that helps to clarify what I was saying.

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History tells us that teams around the relegation end of the table very often have a final third to their season that bears little resemblance to the first 2. Unless they're cut adrift at that point of course. So any 'what we've done to date' analyses are a lot less relevant than the person thinks.

We've had a two week break now. We've hopefully been able to acclimatise and integrate Sylla into something resembling the role we want him to play. This is now where our season starts. If we do well from here we'll be OK. If we don't, we won't. But everything to this point can be put aside and forgotten particularly if it is a distracting negative like pointless stats. Just go out and do the biz on the pitch.

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 But everything to this point can be put aside and forgotten particularly if it is a distracting negative like pointless stats. Just go out and do the biz on the pitch.

Sadly, it's not the stats that are pointless, it's our team whenever we fall behind in a match (or nearly always so).  ;)

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Yeah that's true but only up to now. And the stats (like those ones for example) are pointless in the context of the remainder of the season. They serve no purpose other than to plant doubt in the minds of the younger players. If we can play this next 12 games like a stand-alone 12 game season using the more coherent unit that a 26 game season brings, and which a 2 week break helps to eliminate the memories of the bad run we've been on, then we can be OK. I don't think it's healthy to desperately cling to any negativity, unless of course people want to go down in some twisted attempt to prove their own predictions right, but FWIW I don't believe that they do.

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Well I'm not texting this info to the young players (although I hope Lambert is fully alert to it and is trying to fathom how to get the team to fight back a bit better), I'm using it in a discussion on a discussion forum on the Internet. Is that no longer allowed and when did this new ruling come in? #Comment IsFree

Edited by briny_ear
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Lighten up, it's not a rule. It's my own criticism of how some misplace their energy in 'supporting'(sic) their team. Discussion works both ways remember. It's my suspicion that negativity also makes its way onto the terraces and then transmits itself to the players. If we were to give them a more positive energy then you never know, they might even respond positively. But I appreciate people pay their money and are fully entitled to impersonate Victor Meldrew at every opportunity :D

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PS This defensive flaw has been around since Martin Laursen went.

 

 

Really. I know you are not a fan of the Mon era but just to put you right yet again. We conceded 39 league goals in 2009/10. A very good defensive record and 4th best in the league. Of those 39 goals conceded 7 were in one game. A freak result in the context of the season meaning that in the 37 other league games we conceded just 32 goals which I would consider an excellent defensive record and our best in many a year. Oh by the way Martin Laursen didn't kick a ball for us in 2009/10.

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We might be dead set on relegation, but at least we're on top in table:

http://www.tribalfootball.com/articles/villa-top-empty-seats-revenue-table-3830151#.USeIb6VV6ul

 

Don't see this being any better if and when we get relegated.

We really should look towards the Bundesliga with cheaper tickets to get more fans to the games

The majority of fans would agree with that 'sne' but Lerner would have a heart attack. However, better players and better performances on the pitch might also attract better attendances.

Edited by Morpheus
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like someone said before, the season starts now for me, the unfortunate thing being that 5 of our 12 games are very difficult, and 3 are must-wins. Going to be intense and nail-biting, but to be honest i cannot wait! 

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PS This defensive flaw has been around since Martin Laursen went.

 

 

Really. I know you are not a fan of the Mon era but just to put you right yet again. We conceded 39 league goals in 2009/10. A very good defensive record and 4th best in the league. Of those 39 goals conceded 7 were in one game. A freak result in the context of the season meaning that in the 37 other league games we conceded just 32 goals which I would consider an excellent defensive record and our best in many a year. Oh by the way Martin Laursen didn't kick a ball for us in 2009/10.

We've all heard the stats before, but that season just papered over the cracks. The 7-1 at Chelsea may have been a freak result but virtually the same team went on to lose 6-0 at newly promoted Newcastle just a months later.

 

TRO was right.

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Except that your comments/moment may be selective.

 

Scenario - We enter a Cup final against one of the best teams in Europe.... I would guess if you asked 80% of the fans before the game.... what would you hope for?   an early goal/lead.

 

from that you would kind of expect to close the game somewhat and make it difficult for one of the best teams around to function..... a little like Barcelona v Inter Milan   and just recently Barcelona v AC Milan or even Villa under Saunders.

 

Instead due to a complete lack of ball control basically through the whole team.....despite an ability to smash & Grab results away from home in the league ........we fall over the ball on the half way line and conceed an inoccuous goal....but instead choose to blame the ref for not sending off vidic ( which he should have done granted)

 

so much for the great defensive work under MON....we need to look at ourselves a bit more.

 

Oh not to mention Chelsea away....hush my mouth.

 

PS This defensive flaw has been around since Martin Laursen went.

TRO, I've read this through a couple of times and I can't really fathom your argument.

 

It's not helpful to talk about cup matches because they ebb and flow, teams go behind, get back ahead, get pulled back, and that's what cup football is all about.

 

We're talking in this thread about the bread and butter issue of league survival, consolidating points, controlling games and getting to a safe position.

 

In that context, there has been some discussion about whether lack of goals of poor defending is the worse problem for Villa this season. My post, that you reacted to in the quote above, was agreeing with PussEKat that  failure to hold on to leads is a big problem this season. So it is and the figures I quoted confirm this. But I also pointed out how woeful we have been when going behind. We have fallen behind in 10 games this season and lost them all. In only one have we gone behind and actually managed to come back and get a point (or two if you count the Swansea game where we went behind, got back into the lead then fell to a draw). This is a massive change from previous seasons where we have generally been better at getting points back from losing positions, even in the comparatively weak performances we've had in the last two seasons. So my point was that we have got used to Villa leaking points in recent seasons but a big change this season is how we haven't been able to balance that with clawing points back when we go down.

 

Like it or not, we were  better at that under MON - it was one of the features of his teams. Look at the number of points we have gained from losing positions in recent seasons:

 

05/06 - 8

06/07 - 17

07/08 - 19

08/09 - 15

09/10 - 14

10/11 - 8

11/12 - 11

12/13 - 1  so far (or 2 if you count the Swansea 2-2 but I see that as 2 points lost from a winning position).

 

So you can see it is just a fact that we won lots of points from losing positions under MON and we seem almost completely incapable of doing so this season. I'm not being selective and I'm not saying this is a good thing - you might ask why we got into losing positions so often under MON and why we had to pull back so often.  However, it is simply a fact that we gained a lot of points this way under MON, less so under Foollier and McFool and almost not at all under Lambert and that is a major reason for our current struggles, given that we continue to leak points when we are ahead.

 

I hope that helps to clarify what I was saying.

 

 

My point was similar, except that I believe that since Laursen left we have been sleep walking in to to what we have today.

 

This is poor defending has not just happened is my point and yes it happened with less regularity with MON,(but that correlation would be commensurate with the league position) but it happened.

 

This problem has got gradually worse (perhaps with the exception of McLeish, but we know the trade off of that)

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PS This defensive flaw has been around since Martin Laursen went.

 

 

Really. I know you are not a fan of the Mon era but just to put you right yet again. We conceded 39 league goals in 2009/10. A very good defensive record and 4th best in the league. Of those 39 goals conceded 7 were in one game. A freak result in the context of the season meaning that in the 37 other league games we conceded just 32 goals which I would consider an excellent defensive record and our best in many a year. Oh by the way Martin Laursen didn't kick a ball for us in 2009/10.

 

Mark, you can quote stats all day long it only tells you so much.

 

A team can have a good defensive record playing eleven behind the ball, then you get other problems .... only tells you part of the story.

 

I'm referring to having quality defenders that can get on with it, on their own and dominate.

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like someone said before, the season starts now for me, the unfortunate thing being that 5 of our 12 games are very difficult, and 3 are must-wins. Going to be intense and nail-biting, but to be honest i cannot wait! 

So, our season starts with games against Arsenal and Man Shitty.Not a bad start to the season ( 2 teams that want points and results )

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