Relegation - Merged

[AVFCAM]

another interesting thing to see is how many points ahead of relegation were Blues at this point last season?

[CI]

another interesting thing to see is how many points ahead of relegation were Blues at this point last season?

Think they were better off at this stage by a point or two

[chips'ngravy]

another interesting thing to see is how many points ahead of relegation were Blues at this point last season?

In the 3 games up to 16th April they picked up 7pts beating Bolton and Sunderland at home and drawing with Blackburn, which must have had them seemingly comfortable in mid-table. They then lost 5 out of the last 6, only managing a draw with Wolves along the way :shock:

[briny_ear]

another interesting thing to see is how many points ahead of relegation were Blues at this point last season?

How is that interesting?

[BOF]

Form guide of last 5 games. The 4's are because this last week was a half week and some have games in hand :?

[table color=#bccde9:cde1815237]

[row][mcol color=#000000:cde1815237] [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]TEAM [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]P [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]W [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]D [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]L [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]F [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]A [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]Pts [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]GD [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]PPG [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]LP

[row color=#5a84c9:cde1815237][mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]1 [col]Newcastle United [col]4 [col]4 [col]0 [col]0 [col]9 [col]1 [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]12 [col]+8 [col]3 [col]5

[row color=#5a84c9:cde1815237][mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]2 [col]Manchester United [col]5 [col]4 [col]0 [col]1 [col]9 [col]1 [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]12 [col]+8 [col]2.4 [col]1

[row color=#ffff00:cde1815237][mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]3 [col]Wigan Athletic [col]5 [col]4 [col]0 [col]1 [col]8 [col]4 [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]12 [col]+4 [col]2.4 [col]16

[row color=#5a84c9:cde1815237][mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]4 [col]Everton [col]4 [col]3 [col]1 [col]0 [col]10 [col]2 [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]10 [col]+8 [col]2.5 [col]7

[row color=#bccde9:cde1815237][mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]5 [col]Arsenal [col]5 [col]3 [col]0 [col]2 [col]9 [col]4 [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]9 [col]+5 [col]1.8 [col]3

[row color=#bccde9:cde1815237][mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]6 [col]Manchester City [col]5 [col]2 [col]2 [col]1 [col]14 [col]6 [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]8 [col]+8 [col]1.6 [col]2

[row color=#bccde9:cde1815237][mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]7 [col]Chelsea [col]4 [col]2 [col]2 [col]0 [col]7 [col]4 [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]8 [col]+3 [col]2 [col]6

[row color=#bccde9:cde1815237][mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]8 [col]Fulham [col]4 [col]2 [col]1 [col]1 [col]6 [col]3 [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]7 [col]+3 [col]1.75 [col]10

[row color=#bccde9:cde1815237][mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]9 [col]Norwich City [col]5 [col]2 [col]1 [col]2 [col]8 [col]12 [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]7 [col]-4 [col]1.4 [col]11

[row color=#bccde9:cde1815237][mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]10 [col]Queens Park Rangers [col]5 [col]2 [col]0 [col]3 [col]6 [col]7 [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]6 [col]-1 [col]1.2 [col]17

[row color=#bccde9:cde1815237][mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]11 [col]Sunderland [col]5 [col]1 [col]3 [col]1 [col]6 [col]8 [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]6 [col]-2 [col]1.2 [col]9

[row color=#bccde9:cde1815237][mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]12 [col]Bolton Wanderers [col]4 [col]2 [col]0 [col]2 [col]5 [col]8 [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]6 [col]-3 [col]1.5 [col]18

[row color=#bccde9:cde1815237][mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]13 [col]West Bromwich Albion [col]5 [col]2 [col]0 [col]3 [col]5 [col]9 [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]6 [col]-4 [col]1.2 [col]13

[row color=#bccde9:cde1815237][mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]14 [col]Tottenham Hotspur [col]4 [col]1 [col]2 [col]1 [col]4 [col]3 [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]5 [col]+1 [col]1.25 [col]4

[row color=#bccde9:cde1815237][mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]15 [col]Stoke City [col]4 [col]1 [col]2 [col]1 [col]4 [col]5 [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]5 [col]-1 [col]1.25 [col]14

[row color=#bccde9:cde1815237][mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]16 [col]Liverpool [col]4 [col]1 [col]1 [col]2 [col]5 [col]7 [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]4 [col]-2 [col]1 [col]8

[row color=#bccde9:cde1815237][mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]17 [col]Swansea City [col]5 [col]1 [col]0 [col]4 [col]4 [col]10 [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]3 [col]-6 [col]0.6 [col]12

[row color=#ffff00:cde1815237][mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]18 [col]Aston Villa [col]5 [col]0 [col]2 [col]3 [col]4 [col]13 [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]2 [col]-9 [col]0.4 [col]15

[row color=#5a84c9:cde1815237][mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]19 [col]Wolverhampton Wanderers [col]5 [col]0 [col]1 [col]4 [col]4 [col]10 [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]1 [col]-6 [col]0.2 [col]20

[row color=#5a84c9:cde1815237][mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]20 [col]Blackburn Rovers [col]5 [col]0 [col]0 [col]5 [col]3 [col]13 [mcol color=#000000:cde1815237]0 [col]-10 [col]0 [col]19

[/table]

Ooh, it's excitin' innit?

[GarethRDR]

I bloody well said in February we're gonna sleepwalk into the dogfight. I thought we were too good for the drop at the time, now all bets are off.

[chips'ngravy]

Form guide of last 5 games. The 4's are because this last week was a half week and some have games in hand :?

[table color=#bccde9:5564dfbd9a]

[row][mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a] [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]TEAM [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]P [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]W [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]D [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]L [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]F [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]A [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]Pts [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]GD [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]PPG [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]LP

[row color=#5a84c9:5564dfbd9a][mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]1 [col]Newcastle United [col]4 [col]4 [col]0 [col]0 [col]9 [col]1 [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]12 [col]+8 [col]3 [col]5

[row color=#5a84c9:5564dfbd9a][mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]2 [col]Manchester United [col]5 [col]4 [col]0 [col]1 [col]9 [col]1 [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]12 [col]+8 [col]2.4 [col]1

[row color=#ffff00:5564dfbd9a][mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]3 [col]Wigan Athletic [col]5 [col]4 [col]0 [col]1 [col]8 [col]4 [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]12 [col]+4 [col]2.4 [col]16

[row color=#5a84c9:5564dfbd9a][mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]4 [col]Everton [col]4 [col]3 [col]1 [col]0 [col]10 [col]2 [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]10 [col]+8 [col]2.5 [col]7

[row color=#bccde9:5564dfbd9a][mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]5 [col]Arsenal [col]5 [col]3 [col]0 [col]2 [col]9 [col]4 [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]9 [col]+5 [col]1.8 [col]3

[row color=#bccde9:5564dfbd9a][mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]6 [col]Manchester City [col]5 [col]2 [col]2 [col]1 [col]14 [col]6 [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]8 [col]+8 [col]1.6 [col]2

[row color=#bccde9:5564dfbd9a][mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]7 [col]Chelsea [col]4 [col]2 [col]2 [col]0 [col]7 [col]4 [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]8 [col]+3 [col]2 [col]6

[row color=#bccde9:5564dfbd9a][mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]8 [col]Fulham [col]4 [col]2 [col]1 [col]1 [col]6 [col]3 [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]7 [col]+3 [col]1.75 [col]10

[row color=#bccde9:5564dfbd9a][mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]9 [col]Norwich City [col]5 [col]2 [col]1 [col]2 [col]8 [col]12 [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]7 [col]-4 [col]1.4 [col]11

[row color=#bccde9:5564dfbd9a][mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]10 [col]Queens Park Rangers [col]5 [col]2 [col]0 [col]3 [col]6 [col]7 [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]6 [col]-1 [col]1.2 [col]17

[row color=#bccde9:5564dfbd9a][mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]11 [col]Sunderland [col]5 [col]1 [col]3 [col]1 [col]6 [col]8 [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]6 [col]-2 [col]1.2 [col]9

[row color=#bccde9:5564dfbd9a][mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]12 [col]Bolton Wanderers [col]4 [col]2 [col]0 [col]2 [col]5 [col]8 [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]6 [col]-3 [col]1.5 [col]18

[row color=#bccde9:5564dfbd9a][mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]13 [col]West Bromwich Albion [col]5 [col]2 [col]0 [col]3 [col]5 [col]9 [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]6 [col]-4 [col]1.2 [col]13

[row color=#bccde9:5564dfbd9a][mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]14 [col]Tottenham Hotspur [col]4 [col]1 [col]2 [col]1 [col]4 [col]3 [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]5 [col]+1 [col]1.25 [col]4

[row color=#bccde9:5564dfbd9a][mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]15 [col]Stoke City [col]4 [col]1 [col]2 [col]1 [col]4 [col]5 [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]5 [col]-1 [col]1.25 [col]14

[row color=#bccde9:5564dfbd9a][mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]16 [col]Liverpool [col]4 [col]1 [col]1 [col]2 [col]5 [col]7 [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]4 [col]-2 [col]1 [col]8

[row color=#bccde9:5564dfbd9a][mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]17 [col]Swansea City [col]5 [col]1 [col]0 [col]4 [col]4 [col]10 [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]3 [col]-6 [col]0.6 [col]12

[row color=#ffff00:5564dfbd9a][mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]18 [col]Aston Villa [col]5 [col]0 [col]2 [col]3 [col]4 [col]13 [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]2 [col]-9 [col]0.4 [col]15

[row color=#5a84c9:5564dfbd9a][mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]19 [col]Wolverhampton Wanderers [col]5 [col]0 [col]1 [col]4 [col]4 [col]10 [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]1 [col]-6 [col]0.2 [col]20

[row color=#5a84c9:5564dfbd9a][mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]20 [col]Blackburn Rovers [col]5 [col]0 [col]0 [col]5 [col]3 [col]13 [mcol color=#000000:5564dfbd9a]0 [col]-10 [col]0 [col]19

[/table]

Ooh, it's excitin' innit?

Not under McLeish it's not. :/

[markeefc]

First things first. I think that its disgraceful that we are in a position where I am hoping that we just about escape being relegated. This is all part of how I feel more generally in that I feel lied to by RL and the club who sold me a vision for the future, that encouraged me to spend lots of my hard earned on following the team. I now feel completely disillusioned by the leadership of the club in a way I never was under Doug. Atleast you knew where you stood with him.

However I do think that we will escape relegation, not because I think we are too good to go down, we are clearly not, but based on good old fashioned statistics.

Wolves can get to 35 points, but to overtake us they have to win all of their remaining 4 games (they have only won back to back games once this season and have lost 6 of their last 7 games), us to not pick up a point in our last 5 and see a turnaround in goal difference of 27 goals. I therefore discount them from catching us.

Blackburn, because of the +15 goal difference in our favour, need to win atleast 2 of their remaining 4 games and pick up atleast draws in the other two, again with the hope that we do not pick up any points. Like Wolves they have only won back to back games once this season and have a fairly difficult last 4 games playing Chelsea and Tottenham who are fighting for CL places and also Wigan, so one or both of our relgation rivals will be dropping points in that game. While they could still catch us I think that its more likely that they will not gain sufficient points to get to 35 and reverse the goal difference over the last 4 games.

Bolton - having 6 games left they have more time left than our other relegation rivals to pick up points, but are in a similar position to Blackburn in that they have to do better than us in three of their remaining games and rely on us not picking up any more points. As with Wolves and Blackburn they have managed back to back wins once this season. Obviously our game with them will be crucial but I believe that even a draw would make their task too much and would go a long way to ensuring that we avoid the drop.

QPR - only 4 points behind and a much closer goal difference than those below them. However I think 4 words explain why I don't think they will get them - Tottenham, Chelsea, Man City. All have to face QPR and I just can't see them picking up 4 points over their remaining games which again would require us not to in our 5.

Wigan - I can see these overtaking us. They have to play two of the bottow three - Wolves and Blackburn - and as much as them picking up 6 points would help our survival hopes no end I think they will now finish above us.

Villa - 5 games to go, including a tough local derby against a team who would love to do the double on us for the first time in god knows how long, but help to send us down. However, I believe that 2 more points will make the job of Blackburn, Bolton and QPR too difficult to catch us and I think we will get these agains Bolton and Sunderland. I f we pick more than 2 points from these two games I think its 99% certain we are safe.

I admit that this is as much theoretical as anybody elses opinion and we could see a complete change in form from all of the teams below us, but the way things have gone this season, it would be a change of fairly epic proportions.

However, despite being as confident as I can be that we will be safe, to finish the season with less than 40 points, which I think will be our lowest points total in the Premiership, with so few home wins ( our away record is not that bad to be honest even if our form has been shite), is disgraceful.

However as ever Come on you Lions, UTV, VTID (sometimes when it comes to Villa I think I must be mad. I wouldn't put up with feeling like this in any other part of my life)

[CI]

another interesting thing to see is how many points ahead of relegation were Blues at this point last season?

How is that interesting?

We've sunk to their level (again) hence comparisons are being drawn I guess

Abysmal isn't it

[chips'ngravy]

another interesting thing to see is how many points ahead of relegation were Blues at this point last season?

How is that interesting?

We've sunk to their level (again) hence comparisons are being drawn I guess

Abysmal isn't it

Erm ... because we have the same bloody manager and are following the same trajectory.

[AVFCAM]

Cheers Chips, that's why I thought it was interesting!

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

That form table earily looks like it has a high chance of being the how the bottom three end up. Ive been saying for ages we were never safe anyway. Sigh.

[VillaRoy]

Here is a slightly worrying bit of information. With a stronger team last season, we only managed 1 points from the corresponding fixtures last season. Drew with Bolton at home (1-1), lost to Sunderland (0-1), Spurs (2-1) and West Brom (1-2). Norwich away is the bonus one though last day of the season. Lets say we follow this for the rest of the season, the game away against Norwich would be so f**kin nerve racking. Carrow Road can be a tough place to go.

[Pongotastic]

3 massive concerns

1/ We have a young, inexperienced team who are facing massive pressure against the back drop of what is now a relegation dog fight.

2/Team below us - notably QPR and Wigan - know how to scrap and have a fighting spirit we so visibly lack. Where are the leaders? Is Agbonlahor really the most vocal, influential player in the dressing room.

3/ We have a manager who has vast experience in snatching relegation from the jaws of safety.

To use twitter terminology... #squeakybumtime

[Jimzk5]

Why can't we put mcleish on gardening leave for the rest of the season, id be more confident staying up if we hard Ronald McDonald and the Hamburgler in charge

[switters]

another interesting thing to see is how many points ahead of relegation were Blues at this point last season?

Think they were better off at this stage by a point or two

A couple of graphs I compiled, comparing Villa this season to Birmingham last season.

First the accumulation of points:

Then the position after each match:

[BOF]

I see you're a fan of 'game 39'

[PussEKatt]

3 massive concerns

1/ We have a young, inexperienced team who are facing massive pressure against the back drop of what is now a relegation dog fight.

2/Team below us - notably QPR and Wigan - know how to scrap and have a fighting spirit we so visibly lack. Where are the leaders? Is Agbonlahor really the most vocal, influential player in the dressing room.

3/ We have a manager who has vast experience in snatching relegation from the jaws of safety.

To use twitter terminology... #squeakybumtime

So we are riding the crest of a slump then ?

[switters]

I see you're a fan of 'game 39'

Nah, just slightly lazy when it comes to formatting. Weirdly enough I didn't have to pick the colours of the lines..excel defaulted correctly!

[Pongotastic]

3 massive concerns

1/ We have a young, inexperienced team who are facing massive pressure against the back drop of what is now a relegation dog fight.

2/Team below us - notably QPR and Wigan - know how to scrap and have a fighting spirit we so visibly lack. Where are the leaders? Is Agbonlahor really the most vocal, influential player in the dressing room.

3/ We have a manager who has vast experience in snatching relegation from the jaws of safety.

To use twitter terminology... #squeakybumtime

So we are riding the crest of a slump then ?

I would suggest so. Staggeringly, three or four seasons ago we'd look at our run and fully expect 12-13 points from the last 5 games.