tonyh29 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 And then there's wheat. My theory on wheat prices is that it's being used in biofuels and that is driving up demand / price but the debate on the radio today said it had increased in price by 72% in the past year or so then another caller reckoned it has actually dropped by £30 a tonne and that we were being taken for fools thing is I could have sworn for years the EU had a wheat surplus and even paid farmers NOT to produce any for a while !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 My payrise is linked to inflation in September (inflation + 0.5%) so hopefully it'll peak just at the right time before falling drastically... well I can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 My theory on wheat prices is that it's being used in biofuels and that is driving up demand / price I'd guess the increase in that has affected prices but the supply side appears to be more of an issue currently (the dry spring across europe and problems elsewhere, I believe). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gringo Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 The winds of change seem to be blowing towards the east HSBC to axe 25,000 jobs (not UK) despite pre-tax profits rise Banking giant HSBC has said it will cut 25,000 jobs by 2013 and exit operations in 20 countries as it looks to save billions of dollars. ..... As well as the job cuts, bank said it is closing its retail banking operations in Russia and Poland and selling three insurance businesses as part of pre-announced plans to save $2.5bn-$3.5bn by 2013. On Sunday, it announced the sale of 195 US retail branches, primarily in New York, to First Niagara Bank for about $1bn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gringo Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Someone's singing from the wrong hymn book thebeeb"]US loses AAA credit rating after S&P downgrade News ticker in Times Square, New York. 5 Aug 2011 News of the downgrade ended a tumultuous week for US finances One of the world's leading credit rating agencies, Standard & Poor's, has downgraded the United States' top-notch AAA rating for the first time ever. S&P cut the long-term US rating by one notch to AA+ with a negative outlook, citing concerns about budget deficits. The agency said the deficit reduction plan passed by the US Congress on Tuesday did not go far enough. Correspondents say the downgrade could erode investors' confidence in the world's largest economy. Is this important? Because you have pan-govt regulations like solvency II that mandate that x% of funds are held in AAA rated instruments then these funds will have to start planning to move out of US debt into somethng more stable. Of course you can ignore S&P and pretend you use Moody's or a blended rating. But the agencies tend to follow one another so it would be no surprise for fitch & moody's to have downgraded the US by friday. Money will move into UK and euro bonds, making the debt cheaper for the UK (well done gideon) and prolonging the basket case euro currency which will make it's collapse even more tragic. The fall in dollar values will harm chinese exports acting as a damper on their growth which in turn will double (ot triple if you include the costs of the extended euro bailout) whammy germany whose main export markets are the US and China. Though govt debt for the UK will be cheaper, exports will be hit and financial flows into the UK will be harmed by the strength of the pound. This week Japan and Switzerland have been actively trying to devalue their currencies and swervin Mervyn will have to join in that game in the coming months. Globally there will be downward pressure on 'real' equity and commodity prices which may be offset in actual terms where they are priced in USD. Precious metals will be strengthened as the other safe haven, the USD, weakens. Alternatively S&P will announce on Monday it was all a clerical error. The other two major credit rating agencies, Moody's and Fitch, said on Friday night they had no immediate plans to follow S&P in taking the US off their lists of risk-free borrowers. Officials in Washington told US media that the agency's sums were deeply flawed. Unnamed sources were quoted as saying that a treasury official had spotted a $2 trillion [£1.2 trillion] mistake in the agency's analysis. "A judgment flawed by a $2tn error speaks for itself," a US treasury department spokesman said of the S&P analysis. He did not offer any immediate explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gringo Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 thebeeb"]China has scolded the US over its "addiction to debt" after rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded the US' top-notch AAA rating to AA+. State news agency Xinhua said unless the US cut its "gigantic military expenditure and bloated welfare costs," another downgrade would be inevitable. But other countries, such as Australia, France and Japan, said they retained their faith in US bonds.Which is all very nice. But seeing as all the investment banks use the ratings to determine the (future) value of the bonds, we're going to see a Margin call Massacre on Monday. Barely 18 hours ago I questioned the value of recalling the political puppets due to the stock market falls - but this is clearly quite diffferent - here is something where muppets could actually add value by co-ordinating and getting the investment banks to agree to an approach to the downgrading of billions of dollars worth of collateral held against all sorts of investment vehicles; persion and hedge funds included. If they puppets want to keep the bubble afloat they need to be on the phone all weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gringo Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 reuters"]Tel Aviv blue chip index closes down 7 pct after delayed opening * Market fears another global recession * Circuit breakers used for first time since 2008 (Adds closing prices, bond prices, cenbank/finance ministry statement) By Tova Cohen TEL AVIV, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Tel Aviv shares closed 7 percent lower on Sunday in the first response of a developed market to Standard & Poor's downgrade of the United States' credit rating that has sparked fears of another global recession. The Israeli market along with a few emerging markets in the Middle East were the first to trade after S&P on Friday cut the U.S. long-term credit rating by a notch to AA-plus from AAA due to concerns about the nation's budget and climbing debt burden. The TA-25 blue chip index closed down 6.99 percent to 1,074.27 points and is down 18 percent since the start of the year. The broader TA-100 slid 7.2 percent. Israel's market is closed on Fridays and Saturdays. The Tel Aviv market's opening was delayed by nearly an hour as circuit breakers kicked in when shares fell more than 5 percent in pre-market trade. The last time circuit breakers were used was on Sept. 21, 2008 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, a spokeswoman for the stock exchange said. The market fears the U.S. debt situation could spiral out of control and possibly lead to a double-dip recession, said Zach Herzog, head of international sales at the Psagot brokerage. The tel aviv exchange missed a lot of the fun on friday, but at the close the NYSE was virtually unchanged, and the downgrade was yet to happen. It's going to be quite savage tommorow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gringo Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 al jazeera"]The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to intervene decisively on markets to respond to the escalating debt crisis, a eurozone monetary source said after a conference call between ECB and G7 finance ministers. Officials on the conference call carefully considered the situation in Italy and Spain, and took a note of a statement by France and Germany that stressed their commitment to European financial reforms, the source told the Reuters news agency on Sunday. "The Euro system will intervene very significantly on markets and respond in a significant and cohesive way," the source said. The ECB has said it would 'actively implement' its bond-purchase programme after Italy and Spain announced new measures and reforms to bolster their finances and economies in general. "It is on the basis of the above assessments that the ECB will actively implement its Securities Markets Programme," which purchases bonds issued by eurozone governments on secondary markets.So the ECB is going to take action, but I was under the impression that they weren't able to do this until the ESFS program was ratified by all the participating govts, of which so far none have done. So are the ECB in breach of EU law or are they making it up as they go along. Strange things happen when a group of people decide to unilaterally ignore the law. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 On a different note - surely equity markets are a zero sum thing? Anything other than the actual increase in resources is zero sum, isn't it? Otherwise the extra is utterly illusory. *Very much prepared to be properly corrected* How can £x million or billion be 'wiped' off markets unless it didn't really exist in the first place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted August 8, 2011 VT Supporter Share Posted August 8, 2011 Define "exist". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Define "exist". Bastard. :winkold: Does anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Define "exist". In this case, the value seems to "exist" as a temporary consensus that a is worth b. If the consensus fades, the value ceases to exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDon Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 I'd argue that there's no consensus that it's worth b. I'd say that for a to sell at b then you need someone who thinks a is worth b, and someone who thinks a isn't worth b. After all, why would anyone sell if they didn't think they were getting more for than it's actually worth? But yes, equity markets are zero sum, they don't create wealth, they redistribute it. Market capitalisation increasing doesn't mean that they're creating money, just that some people will lose more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 I'd argue that there's no consensus that it's worth b. I'd say that for a to sell at b then you need someone who thinks a is worth b, and someone who thinks a isn't worth b. After all, why would anyone sell if they didn't think they were getting more for than it's actually worth? People do sometimes sell at less than they think something is worth, though. Depends if they have the luxury of not selling until the price is closer to what they see as its value. When something is sold, you have a mark of what price is agreed between the two parties, but there's also situations where values are assigned to things which aren't being sold, eg assessing the value of intellectual property or brand or some other intangible that may be hard to compare with something currently being exchanged for an actual price. The price in itself often depends partly or largely on the consensus, eg house prices, art works and lots of other things are influenced by the views of people in that field about what something is worth, and the buying and selling process is influenced by that rather than being just a negotiation from first principles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAFC2000 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Hi Folks, With a lot of articles being written in the papers, about the recession. Do you think we are facing a double dip recession...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAFC2000 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Apologies -Forgot to post the link...! http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011 ... double-dip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Hi Folks, With a lot of articles being written in the papers, about the recession. Do you think we are facing a double dip recession...? Yes, we're all f**ked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAFC2000 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Hi Folks, With a lot of articles being written in the papers, about the recession. Do you think we are facing a double dip recession...? Yes, we're all f**ked. How bad do you think things will get. I have heard academic studies that suggest the Economy might not be better for another decade...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I suggest reading the previous 136 pages of this thread and you'll then have a very good idea of what happened, how we got here and where we are going. If you can't be arsed then the summary is still that we are all f**ked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CI Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 We're in a Depression, not a recession Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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