Baldricks Cunning Plan Posted January 19 Visiting Supporter Share Posted January 19 (edited) 21 minutes ago, villa4europe said: if the maths of it does actually add up to what is being suggested and selling a youth team player for £5m and buying another team's young player for £15m on a 5 year deal actually results in your end of year FFP numbers being positive then FFP has broken football even more than i thought If both players were identical in ability and both earned say £1m a year the FFP results on the transaction would be as follows. Year one (income £5m, transfer fee amortisation £3m) Profit £2m Years 2-5 (income nil, transfer fee amortisation £3m) loss £3m per year. It has a benefit for just one year and will cost you £15m in real cash over the lifetime of the transaction. A club would be crazy, other than for a short term gain to abide by the rules if you were close to breaching them, to think that doing such thing on a regular basis is a good thing. Edited January 19 by Baldricks Cunning Plan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 A good thread on why City’s case is taking so long 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobzy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, Baldricks Cunning Plan said: If both players were identical in ability and both earned say £1m a year the FFP results on the transaction would be as follows. Year one (income £5m, transfer fee amortisation £3m) Profit £2m Years 2-5 (income nil, transfer fee amortisation £3m) loss £3m per year. It has a benefit for just one year and will cost you £15m in real cash over the lifetime of the transaction. A club would be crazy, other than for a short term gain to abide by the rules if you were close to breaching them, to think that doing such thing on a regular basis is a good thing. Too simple, though. Doesn’t take into account what the purchase does. It’s also a rolling 3-year period for FFP, so years 4-5 (whilst not irrelevant) wouldn’t be considered in the same period as the initial sale. Over 3 years, the difference sans wage difference is a £4m loss. If a player is theoretically bought for £15m and then sold for £15m after 3 seasons, you’d have: Year 1 - £2m profit (£5m sale, £3m 1/5 purchase) Year 2 - £3m loss (£0m sale, £3m 1/5 purchase) Year 3 - £6m profit (£15m sale less £9m for years 3-5 not taken into account) Result over the period is the £5m profit initially made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommo_b Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 If the premier league docked City 80 points this season for none co-operation and any subsequent seasons they are in the premier league I am sure they would soon be more willing to co-operate. Surely they can force their hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 8 hours ago, Tommo_b said: If the premier league docked City 80 points this season for none co-operation and any subsequent seasons they are in the premier league I am sure they would soon be more willing to co-operate. Surely they can force their hand. They (City) have tied it all up in legal proceedings. One false move from the PL, for example some fine details wrong, and the whole thing could start to fall apart. Manchester City’s legal team will focus on the inaccuracy in an instant, and hyper focus on that to drag it out even further. Legally, the PL case has to be absolutely watertight, and my feeling is, if anything does happen, a high number of charges will be dropped in order for MC to reduce their punishment, but that will be last minute (with an admission of guilt from them on a smaller number of cases as part of that plea). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted January 20 Moderator Share Posted January 20 9 hours ago, Tommo_b said: If the premier league docked City 80 points this season for none co-operation and any subsequent seasons they are in the premier league I am sure they would soon be more willing to co-operate. Surely they can force their hand. That’s not reflective of the situation. The people appointed by the league are at arms length. They were given a task, with a specific remit. “These are the documented rules. This is the evidence that the rules were broken. This is the counter argument from City. Determine whether the evidence stacks up, assess whether the defence is valid. Propose an outcome.” It’s completely outside the scope of the appointed body of experts to somehow assume guilt, impose a huge penalty/threat and leverage some kind of cooperation or confession. “Careful now, you don’t sing like a canary and you might have a nasty fall down the stairs and lose 80 points”. That’s not justice, that’s the opposite. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoelVilla Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The likely outcome summed up in the two last posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlobalVillan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 (edited) On 18/01/2024 at 18:47, LondonLax said: Money alone doesn’t make you dominant. Chelsea and Man U are proof. It wasn’t until Man City took the back of house team behind Barcelona’s period of dominance that all that success switched from Barcelona to Manchester City. Before that, under Mancini / Pellegrini they had all the same money advantage and were competing at the top but were not dominant. If Chelsea or Man U had enticed that Barcelona team to their clubs instead it would be them having the success and Man City would still be chugging along in their wake. You have missed the point totally. Man city have been cheating and paying people under the table since even the days of Mancini that you mention, however it took time to keep adding until they got what they needed. That's why they had an advantage as they were able to attract and pay whoever they wanted. ILLEGITIMATELY! Why aren't you getting this? Edited January 20 by GlobalVillan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommo_b Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 6 hours ago, blandy said: That’s not reflective of the situation. The people appointed by the league are at arms length. They were given a task, with a specific remit. “These are the documented rules. This is the evidence that the rules were broken. This is the counter argument from City. Determine whether the evidence stacks up, assess whether the defence is valid. Propose an outcome.” It’s completely outside the scope of the appointed body of experts to somehow assume guilt, impose a huge penalty/threat and leverage some kind of cooperation or confession. “Careful now, you don’t sing like a canary and you might have a nasty fall down the stairs and lose 80 points”. That’s not justice, that’s the opposite. I think if you’re deliberately impeding an investigation the premier league should have the rights to invoke a punishment, it’s their competition, if you don’t play ball get the f*ck out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 50 minutes ago, GlobalVillan said: You have missed the point totally. Man city have been cheating and paying people under the table since even the days of Mancini that you mention, however it took time to keep adding until they got what they needed. That's why they had an advantage as they were able to attract and pay whoever they wanted. ILLEGITIMATELY! Why aren't you getting this? Yes I understand what they did I was adding more nuance and detail from the usual “bUt ThEy cHeaTED!!!” discourse that you typically get from fans of rival clubs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlobalVillan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, LondonLax said: Yes I understand what they did I was adding more nuance and detail from the usual “bUt ThEy cHeaTED!!!” discourse that you typically get from fans of rival clubs. Wow. So not only have you been defending them, you are now mocking Villa fans and fans of other clubs for pointing out that they are cheats and the advantages they have gained from it. I think Blue Moon might be a better forum for your posts. Mocking fans for calling them out? Unbelievable. Genuinely. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted January 20 Moderator Share Posted January 20 3 hours ago, Tommo_b said: I think if you’re deliberately impeding an investigation the premier league should have the rights to invoke a punishment, it’s their competition, if you don’t play ball get the f*ck out. Who decides whether they’re deliberately impeding an investigation? Should it be you? If not why not? This isn’t me having a go, because from what I’ve read and heard they might have done exactly that. So is it not you or I who decide, but the Sun or the Mail or the Athletic or Sky Sports? No, clearly not. It should be, as you infer, the Premier League, right? But if it’s the Premier League, then, er, that’s the process that’s currently underway. But you can’t say they’re guilty before the investigation is completed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foreveryoung Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Premier League "Man City your naughty look at all these charges". Man City "Not only have we made you the Premier League, an the broadcasters millions, over previous seasons, we have also invested heavily into Manchester and the surrounding areas, do you really wnat to find us guilty and relegate us throwing away all those revenues". They'll get away with it, I have no doubt. The Premier league and others cannot afford to relegate Man City, they are to big a commercial force. My opinion, the Premier League will claim they cannot find definative evidence to charge them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 19/01/2024 at 15:18, duke313 said: A good thread on why City’s case is taking so long Agree, that is a really good thread, and the guy who wrote it is an authority on the topic who is worth paying attention to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Townsend Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 (edited) Their current status in the game was gotten illegitimate and the rules now prevent clubs like Villa, once unquestionably a bigger club than them, from ever catching up to them. What a crock of shit. Edited January 20 by Captain_Townsend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaVilla Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 14 hours ago, foreveryoung said: Premier League "Man City your naughty look at all these charges". Man City "Not only have we made you the Premier League, an the broadcasters millions, over previous seasons, we have also invested heavily into Manchester and the surrounding areas, do you really wnat to find us guilty and relegate us throwing away all those revenues". They'll get away with it, I have no doubt. The Premier league and others cannot afford to relegate Man City, they are too big a commercial force. My opinion, the Premier League will claim they cannot find definative evidence to charge them. The point being missed here is that Man City’s case has nothing to do with football or the premier league anymore. This is now about Abu Dhabi’s existing and potential future investment in the UK of billions of pounds. That’s why the government is involved and why any punishment will be meaningless in the grand scheme of things. They will concoct what looks like a heavy financial and points penalty which will mean absolutely nothing to Abu Dhabi apart from one year out of the champions league. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted January 21 Moderator Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, DakotaVilla said: The point being missed here is that Man City’s case has nothing to do with football or the premier league anymore. This is now about Abu Dhabi’s existing and potential future investment in the UK of billions of pounds. That’s why the government is involved and why any punishment will be meaningless in the grand scheme of things. They will concoct what looks like a heavy financial and points penalty which will mean absolutely nothing to Abu Dhabi apart from one year out of the champions league. There’s something in that, for sure, but it’s not “has nothing to do with football or the premier league”. To my way of thinking, there are 2 main other factors too. Firstly, cheating to gain an advantage. Given the PL is 20 clubs all competing to thrive, any one of them not abiding by the constraints in place is gonna earn the wrath of the other 19. Secondly, having already been found to have broken UEFA’s rules, albeit with some statute of time limitations rendering some verdicts, or punishments void, there’s the general threat of government regulation, meaning there is an incentive to act on the PL. That second one means it has an enormous amount to do with the Premier League. These might be historical charges, but the PL, can’t be seen to let them slide in the current climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foreveryoung Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 hours ago, DakotaVilla said: The point being missed here is that Man City’s case has nothing to do with football or the premier league anymore. This is now about Abu Dhabi’s existing and potential future investment in the UK of billions of pounds. That’s why the government is involved and why any punishment will be meaningless in the grand scheme of things. They will concoct what looks like a heavy financial and points penalty which will mean absolutely nothing to Abu Dhabi apart from one year out of the champions league. If they get punished severely it will mean alot and be a big blow into the sportswashing project. They want to play a big part in English sport, an being found guilty of financial corruption will put a huge dent in there reputation for sport in the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaVilla Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I agree with everything you’ve posted but the very same premier league were told by the government to wave through the Saudi investment in Newcastle and they did. No doubt the premier league club owners will all be enraged by City’s cheating but they will be far, far more concerned about what an upset UK government could do to impact the value of their investments. No doubt a deal will be cut by the government to limit the real power that any independent regulator will have or to wave through anything else that they want to keep the premier league owners happy and to ensure that they act in the interests of the government. All very tawdry but unfortunately this is very high stakes politics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaVilla Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, foreveryoung said: If they get punished severely it will mean alot and be a big blow into the sportswashing project. They want to play a big part in English sport, a being found guilty of financial corruption will put a huge dent in there reputation for sport in the UK. They are never going to admit guilt for anything significant and they are never going to give up the trophies they have already won. They’d be quite happy to pay a 400m pound penalty and 40 point deduction under protest and we can then see this all brushed under the carpet. The only question in my mind is whether the new incoming labour government would have a different view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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