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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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1 minute ago, Chindie said:

We're going to see a catastrophic fall in PPG and we're going to limp across the line.

I said I wasn’t going to come back into this thread today because of some of the comments but I did…”catastrophic fall” we have Pau back, Digne back, we were the better team yesterday but didn’t take our chances and Onana has his first great game for United, another day and we would’ve done better.

There are only rumours about Kamara and Konsa, and I doubt they waited this long to check on Konsa.  Until anything from the club I’m sticking to their original assessment of two-four weeks, of which we are part way through.  We have no idea about Kamara.

Other than that we most key players back after injury recently of Torres, Digne, Ramsey, Tielemans to name but a few.  To me it looks positive and hopefully Konsa and Kamara are ok, and I’m not going to wet the bed until we know and even then I won’t.

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4 minutes ago, Farlz said:

Newcastle are absolute dog shit, we aren’t finishing 7th ffs. No words for even mentioning 8th. 

United possibly could overtake us but that’s it. 

And their form only looks good because they beat us twice recently

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16 minutes ago, nick76 said:

That’s just crazy that you think that.  

Newcastle have the same points as us last six games and West Ham have 3 points in the last five games and just lost 6-0 at home.

We are also 10 points ahead of those two teams.

So do you think you may be overreacting mate?

Could be. I'm panicked. Will be delighted to be wrong

Players pointing fingers at each other after FT yesterday. That hurt them as much as it hurt us.

We should win the next three...but we've played well once in two months. And we lost that game. You could include Sheff Utd away I suppose, but there's not much point. Fulham will think they can beat us. 

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33 minutes ago, Tomaszk said:

 

Incredible confidence.

We've played well once in two months. And lost that game.

Obviously hope you're right.

7th/8th more likely than 5th right now IMO.

 

This is just absolute nonsense.

8th :D :D 

You usually need between 55 and 60 points for 7th place.

You really think we'll fail to get 14 points from our remaining fixtures

We're matching Newcastle's form and have a 10 point headstart on them.

6th is the absolute lowest we'll finish. And even that is very unlikely.

 

Everyone has gone **** mental

Edited by Stevo985
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12 minutes ago, Tomaszk said:

Could be. I'm panicked. Will be delighted to be wrong

Players pointing fingers at each other after FT yesterday. That hurt them as much as it hurt us.

We should win the next three...but we've played well once in two months. And we lost that game. You could include Sheff Utd away I suppose, but there's not much point. Fulham will think they can beat us. 

 

Or look at a different way that we’ve played well in our last two league games after a period of poor form in the league and we’ve one game convincingly and the second game we should at least got a point if not for poor finishing which is unlike us this season and another game we could’ve score at least a couple more with those chances.  

We have the likes of Pau, Tielemans, Digne and Ramsey now back from injuries and hopefully Konsa back in a few weeks based on what the club told us last week and not the rumours.  

As for Kamara, again just rumours and we just hope he’s ok.  

Then we have three winnable games so we should be looking at getting 6, 7 or 9 points.  Despite those teams will be looking at recent results giving them hope, we also look at their results the same way and we have the better team.  If we play against them like we did against Man U we’ll get a fair amount of those points on offer.

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11 minutes ago, nick76 said:

Or look at a different way that we’ve played well in our last two league games after a period of poor form in the league and we’ve one game convincingly and the second game we should at least got a point if not for poor finishing which is unlike us this season and another game we could’ve score at least a couple more with those chances.  

We have the likes of Pau, Tielemans, Digne and Ramsey now back from injuries and hopefully Konsa back in a few weeks based on what the club told us last week and not the rumours.  

As for Kamara, again just rumours and we just hope he’s ok.  

Then we have three winnable games so we should be looking at getting 6, 7 or 9 points.  Despite those teams will be looking at recent results giving them hope, we also look at their results the same way and we have the better team.  If we play against them like we did against Man U we’ll get a fair amount of those points on offer.

Not sure we'll see Kamara or Konsa back for quite a while.

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7 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

Just to try and calm some of the absolute hysteria going on here.

 

 

Newcastle's form so far this season would have them finish on 57 points.
57. That's it. That's only 11 points more than we already have.
11 from 14 games is less than 0.8PPG for us. That isn't just relegation form, it's COMFORTABLE relegation form.

For comparison, in our current slump (I'm counting this from the Brentford game on 17th December to last night, a period of 8 games) we are averaging 1.375 PPG.
To put that in perspective, in case that doesn't sound like a lot, the form we'd need to slump to (0.8PPG) to fail to hit 57 points is the equivalent of 29 points over a full season.
The form we are currently achieving (1.375) is the equivalent of 52 points over a season.

Even in our current slump, we are achieving form equivalent to 52 points per season.

 

Man Utd's form this season would take them to 65 points this season. 
Our current form of 1.375 points per game would take our total to... 65 points.

So even if we saw no improvement whatsoever from our last 8 games for the rest of the season, we'd still pip them to 5th.

 

 

 

Obviously these aren't perfect comparisons as it assumes Newcastle and Man Utd continue their form exactly. But hopefully it shows how much of a swing it would take for us to fall that low.
Even just a small improvement from our current form would make it a HUGE task for Man utd to overhaul us.

If we hit 1.5PPG for the rest of the season, we'll get 5th place. And that's not a huge ask

 

Talks of 7th or 8th place are absolute hysteria, imo

Brilliant post 👏

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20 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

Just to try and calm some of the absolute hysteria going on here.

 

 

Newcastle's form so far this season would have them finish on 57 points.
57. That's it. That's only 11 points more than we already have.
11 from 14 games is less than 0.8PPG for us. That isn't just relegation form, it's COMFORTABLE relegation form.

For comparison, in our current slump (I'm counting this from the Brentford game on 17th December to last night, a period of 8 games) we are averaging 1.375 PPG.
To put that in perspective, in case that doesn't sound like a lot, the form we'd need to slump to (0.8PPG) to fail to hit 57 points is the equivalent of 29 points over a full season.
The form we are currently achieving (1.375) is the equivalent of 52 points over a season.

Even in our current slump, we are achieving form equivalent to 52 points per season.

 

Man Utd's form this season would take them to 65 points this season. 
Our current form of 1.375 points per game would take our total to... 65 points.

So even if we saw no improvement whatsoever from our last 8 games for the rest of the season, we'd still pip them to 5th.

 

 

 

Obviously these aren't perfect comparisons as it assumes Newcastle and Man Utd continue their form exactly. But hopefully it shows how much of a swing it would take for us to fall that low.
Even just a small improvement from our current form would make it a HUGE task for Man utd to overhaul us.

If we hit 1.5PPG for the rest of the season, we'll get 5th place. And that's not a huge ask

 

Talks of 7th or 8th place are absolute hysteria, imo

Great post. I just hope Kamara and Konsa aren't out for the rest of the season otherwise we might get worse before we get better.

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2 minutes ago, AV82 said:

Great post. I just hope Kamara and Konsa aren't out for the rest of the season otherwise we might get worse before we get better.

Don’t forget Pau is about to return. So we’re losing Konsa and gaining Pau. 
 

Ramsey is hopefully getting back to his old self. 
 

And most importantly our performance last night was actually good  

 

we had a slump last season and finished incredibly strongly  

There are positives. 

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1 minute ago, Stevo985 said:

Don’t forget Pau is about to return. So we’re losing Konsa and gaining Pau. 
 

Ramsey is hopefully getting back to his old self. 
 

And most importantly our performance last night was actually good  

 

we had a slump last season and finished incredibly strongly  

There are positives. 

Kamara will be tough to replace but you're on the money with that mate. Many of our supporters reactions have been, as usual, over the top.

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26 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

Just to try and calm some of the absolute hysteria going on here.

 

 

Newcastle's form so far this season would have them finish on 57 points.
57. That's it. That's only 11 points more than we already have.
11 from 14 games is less than 0.8PPG for us. That isn't just relegation form, it's COMFORTABLE relegation form.

For comparison, in our current slump (I'm counting this from the Brentford game on 17th December to last night, a period of 8 games) we are averaging 1.375 PPG.
To put that in perspective, in case that doesn't sound like a lot, the form we'd need to slump to (0.8PPG) to fail to hit 57 points is the equivalent of 29 points over a full season.
The form we are currently achieving (1.375) is the equivalent of 52 points over a season.

Even in our current slump, we are achieving form equivalent to 52 points per season.

 

Man Utd's form this season would take them to 65 points this season. 
Our current form of 1.375 points per game would take our total to... 65 points.

So even if we saw no improvement whatsoever from our last 8 games for the rest of the season, we'd still pip them to 5th.

 

 

 

Obviously these aren't perfect comparisons as it assumes Newcastle and Man Utd continue their form exactly. But hopefully it shows how much of a swing it would take for us to fall that low.
Even just a small improvement from our current form would make it a HUGE task for Man utd to overhaul us.

If we hit 1.5PPG for the rest of the season, we'll get 5th place. And that's not a huge ask

 

Talks of 7th or 8th place are absolute hysteria, imo

7th, 8th, probably yeah. But who cares, it's all about Champions League.

Not getting UCL from 2nd at Christmas (would have been top if we could beat Sheffield Utd at home) is a disaster. A morale sapping, future changing disaster.

And it'll be tough to get 1.5 points a game with no Kamara and Konsa.

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1 minute ago, Tomaszk said:

7th, 8th, probably yeah. But who cares, it's all about Champions League.

Not getting UCL from 2nd at Christmas (would have been top if we could beat Sheffield Utd at home) is a disaster. A morale sapping, future changing disaster.

And it'll be tough to get 1.5 points a game with no Kamara and Konsa.

We’ll get 5th. Which will probably be CL

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8 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

Don’t forget Pau is about to return. So we’re losing Konsa and gaining Pau. 
 

Ramsey is hopefully getting back to his old self. 
 

And most importantly our performance last night was actually good  

 

we had a slump last season and finished incredibly strongly  

There are positives. 

Exactly.

If Konsa and Kamara really are both out for the rest of the season then yes it does diminish our chances of finishing 4th/5th but yeah it does feel like some are overreacting (and to the defeat last night).

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1 hour ago, Tomaszk said:

Could be. I'm panicked. Will be delighted to be wrong

Players pointing fingers at each other after FT yesterday. That hurt them as much as it hurt us.

We should win the next three...but we've played well once in two months. And we lost that game. You could include Sheff Utd away I suppose, but there's not much point. Fulham will think they can beat us. 

 

Chief we finished 7th with a shitter squad and season start/points than we have now. ( Arguably no Tyrone and Buendia but ... )

We had 31 points at this stage.

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I thought Man Utd were very poor against us and lucky to get the win - they’ll continue to drop points.

Newcastle also look poor to me atm, lucky to beat Forest, blatant pen ignored by ref and VAR.

The main threat is Spurs.

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I think playing an inexperienced 20 year old is a major major dent to hopes of 4th.

I don't think that's being dramatic or reactionary. Just realistic.  Tim won't be at the same level as Kamara. We will lose more games now because of this injury.

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