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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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33 minutes ago, Mark Albrighton said:

I don’t know, I’m trying not to determine in my own mind either way and get worked up about it, because ultimately in a year’s time we’ll be here debating whether finishing in X place is where we should be and it will be the same again. 

It will definitely be the same again, the only thing that will be different is whatever the positions are. You'll see Punxsatawney Phil again tomorrow, don't you worry  🙂 

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43 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Spurs overall better mentality than us? We are indeed screwed then considering the accepted term for screwing up due to weak mentality is ‚spursy’ 

They have a better squad than us and signed well in January.

Feels like we could lose in a similar manner to what happened today v them in a few weeks and that would be even more fatal to top 4 hopes if we don't pick up 6-7 points in the next three games.

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1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said:

I'm starting to see why other posters seem to find you quite tiring to have a discussion with.

At no point did I say anything that could be paraphrased as 'let's not bother qualifying because of Newcastle's experience'. You either need to read more carefully or post less emotionally. 

Other posters find me tiring to have a discussion with? Was there any need for that as hominem attack mate? 

Btw, watched the game here in Hanoi. End of bia hoi street.

Quite a few Villa fans about too. 

Anyway, shame you feel that way. 

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Just now, Pongo Waring said:

Forgetting about the results, Watching Spurs, Villa, Man United, Brighton and West ham this weekend and Villa was far the best team I've seen this weekend performance wise out of all of them.

Very good point. We had a bad result today but a good performance and a big positive was also the performance of Jacob Ramsey. United hsve City away in three games time so 5 points is still a good margin and 5th should get us champions league. 

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33 minutes ago, GlobalVillan said:

Other posters find me tiring to have a discussion with? Was there any need for that as hominem attack mate? 

Btw, watched the game here in Hanoi. End of bia hoi street.

Quite a few Villa fans about too. 

Anyway, shame you feel that way. 

I'm sorry if I hurt your feelings, it's genuinely not my intention. But I think something you could consider is that the style of posting where you take what someone says and then make an absurd straw man version of it to defeat is one that's going to wind people up, and I've seen it happen before so I know I'm not the first. My strong advice is to respond to the actual argument people are making, not to make a new version. 

I'm glad to hear you're in Hanoi, it's a magnificent city. Have a lovely time, I wish I was back over there myself. 

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2 minutes ago, PaulC said:

Very good point. We had a bad result today but a good performance and a big positive was also the performance of Jacob Ramsey. United hsve City away in three games time so 5 points is still a good margin and 5th should get us champions league. 

If we told everyone in here that start of the season that we would be 1 point off 4th, 5 points off Man United with 14 PL games to ago they would of bitten your hand off.

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5 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I'm sorry if I hurt your feelings, it's genuinely not my intention. But I think something you could consider is that the style of posting where you take what someone says and then make an absurd straw man version of it to defeat is one that's going to wind people up, and I've seen it happen before so I know I'm not the first. My strong advice is to respond to the actual argument people are making, not to make a new version. 

I'm glad to hear you're in Hanoi, it's a magnificent city. Have a lovely time, I wish I was back over there myself. 

Didn't mean to strawman, maybe just a few too many drinks and pissed off at losing to these buggers again. Love Hanoi, been a few times. I'm sure you miss it!

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8 minutes ago, GlobalVillan said:

Didn't mean to strawman, maybe just a few too many drinks and pissed off at losing to these buggers again. Love Hanoi, been a few times. I'm sure you miss it!

Very understandable, and no worries!

If it's still there, I find the best place to deal with a hangover is a lounger by the pool at the Thanh Loi hotel at West Lake!

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On 04/02/2024 at 22:46, Stevo985 said:

Don't look at the gap, look at the points needed.

 

Only once in the last 10 years has more than 70 points been needed for 5th place. So let's use 70 as a benchmark for what we need for 5th. usually it's less.

We're already on 46 points. So we need 24 points from 15 games. That's 1.6 PPG. 

We're averaging more or less exactly 2PPG under Emery. You have to go back to Emery's first managerial appointment to find a PPG as low as 1.6

 

I think if you assume a few draws, we need 6 wins from 15 games to get 5th place. Again 6 from 15 is comfortably a lower win percentage than Emery has gotten in any of his managerial roles. It's 40%, and you have to go back 12 years before you get to a managerial role where Emery had less than 50%, let alone 40.

 

I'm not saying it's impossible, but it requires an almost implausible drop in form OR a freak season where the points needed for 5th is ridiculously high (or most likely both) One season it required 75 points for 5th... if Leicester had got 75 points in their league winning season they'd have still won the league. So 75 for 5th is rare.

 

When you take the emotion out of it and just look at the numbers it's just not realistic.

 

 

 

But, as you say, we are Aston Villa. So we'll probably finish 7th

Hello statistics meet Aston Villa…

 

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2 hours ago, ender4 said:

If someone had said before the start of the season… with 14 games to go, Villa will be 5 points ahead of Man Utd and 1 point behind 4th place…. I’d have taken it. 

True, but at the start of the season, we weren't in a position to go top by beating the bottom team either. Expectations change over a season, while 6th would have been acceptable then, its a massive failure now considering everything that has happened since.

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1 hour ago, Pongo Waring said:

If we told everyone in here that start of the season that we would be 1 point off 4th, 5 points off Man United with 14 PL games to ago they would of bitten your hand off.

Or, if you told everyone that we'd be second at the end of december, 13 points clear of united, needing to beqt sheff utd at home to go top, but fast forward two months later, after dropping points to sheff utd, man u after being 2-0 up, everton, newcastle and then united at home, to end up 5th and just 5 points ahead of united, people would probably be higely concerned about the monumental drop off

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Just now, HanoiVillan said:

6th would not be a 'massive failure', it would be an incremental improvement on last season and automatically qualify us for a better European competition. 

It might be a slight disappointment compared to where we are now, but it would be our best season since 2010 and incremental improvement on last season. That's not a 'massive failure'. 

It's our best chance to get CL in a generation.

I am of the view that it won't quite be the extreme gamechanger people are expecting it to be like yourself HV. However we've played well for most of the season and it does feel a bit now or never for this squad.

Man. United, Chelsea and Newcastle have all been rubbish for large parts aswell and you'd expect two of them to improve significantly next season so I think we'll struggle to carve open such an opportunity next year.

To finish 6th now would be a bit of a failure although would be softened by winning the europa.

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26 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

6th would not be a 'massive failure', it would be an incremental improvement on last season and automatically qualify us for a better European competition. 

It might be a slight disappointment compared to where we are now, but it would be our best season since 2010. That's not a 'massive failure'. 

Agree to disagree I guess, honestly this team has shown they are capable of challenging for the title ( see prior to said Sheffield game). To be capable of that and produce what we have seen over the last few months is disappointing. I can acknowledge 6th is an improvement on last year and that's a good thing, but in the context of the season and what could have been its a failure.

Granted injuries have not helped at all, but seasons where 3 of the '7 teams that are better that us' have stuttered are not going to be all that common, and we really need to exploit the opportunity to its fullest

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Kind of a crazy thread today. Guess that's to be expected after a painful loss. I think I'm not as intelligent as many of you, but I don't have a whisker of doubt in Unai or our players, to be honest. We played well and lost today. Time to take a collective breath. There is only one path to the CL this week, and it's right this way, folks!

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Edited by Marka Ragnos
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We lost 3 games in a row last Feb right? Then Emery tweaked a few things and we finished the season strongly. 

 

Out if interest how many points did we get in the last 14 games of last season? If we replicate that form I'm sure we'd get close to a total for 4th?

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I think all this "this is best chance Villa have had in 10,000 years" stuff is a double-edged sword. I understand the feeling of impatient hope, but I suspect such thinking is toxic to our players and coaching staff, and they'll wisely let the fans feed off that tree by themselves.

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