Horse Racing - the good, the bad and the ugly

[bielesibub]

As the 2023 Grand National thread has been locked (boo hiss, was hoping to keep it going until next year at the very least!), here's a place where we can continue to discuss the horses, the good, the bad and the ugly of it all.

 

 

[gwi1890]

Any bets on Punchestown festival?

[AVFC_Hitz]

Immaculate Pasta

[rjw63]

Dog food.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GarethRDR]

Hang on a minute, this isn't the music covers thread...

[Mark Albrighton]

So this thread has been created because the Grand National thread has been…(wait for it)…Devon Loch’ed.

[AvfcRigo82]

24 minutes ago, Mark Albrighton said:

So this thread has been created because the Grand National thread has been…(wait for it)…Devon Loch’ed.

[rjw63]

32 minutes ago, Mark Albrighton said:

So this thread has been created because the Grand National thread has been…(wait for it)…Devon Loch’ed.

[Rugeley Villa]

@bielesibub  You said ……Without a computer the Maths bit would have stopped me from coming up with anything.  I've not had more than a couple of years of using different systems, the latest and greatest uses a machine learning algorithm, so I kind of need to worry even less about the Maths - unless I really want to delve into its inner workings. Do you find jump racing less predictable?

Yes I do find jump racing less predictable and easier to work out. I’m still pen and notepad but would like to transfer to computer which would be easier . I get all the relative figures that I need from the Racecard and the horses profile page, then apply it to the system I have. It’s became a bit of an hobby to be fair . 
 

Could we start using this thread for our bets? Maybe compare our systems and ways of selecting horses with other posters, too? 

Edited April 27, 2023 by Rugeley Villa

[Rugeley Villa]

I don’t usually bother with the flats until May because of fitness of a lot of the horses. 

[Rugeley Villa]

3 hours ago, gwi1890 said:

Any bets on Punchestown festival?

2 or 3 races take my fancy today but not sure I’ll have time . 

Edited April 27, 2023 by Rugeley Villa

[tomav84]

4 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said:

Could we start using this thread for our bets? Maybe compare our systems and ways of selecting horses with other posters, too? 

so my system, such as it is, uses 3rd party speed rating figures so i'm not sure what calculations go into these figures. all i know is they seem to really help. i think ideally, you would have enough time on your hands to watch every race and make your own assessment of each horse, but i don't have that time nor the knowledge to do that. anyway, this is what my spreadsheet looks like:

1) rank of average speed ratings

2) rank of best speed rating in last 12 months

3) rank of horses with decreasing marks - mark going down, rank is higher

4) i then enter racing post ratings of last 5 runs and calculate them against the mark in the next race. so if a horse got an RPR of 85 and then went up to a mark of 83 in the next race, that number is 2. i add those up and rank them...the higher the number, the better the rank with the view that performances have been generally better than the mark. i do put my own tweaks on this though...for example if the RPR was abnormally low for a horse that's been running fairly well, i will look to see if there were excuses and if so, i might discount this race otherwise it would skew my calculations

i then add the ranks together - the best possible is 4 (1+1+1+1) and then use these to create my shortlist of the best 2 or 3 which i study in more detail. often i still wont bet on them, as i prefer to use this system to look for value.

just one selection for today, Challet at 4.00 Beverley

[bielesibub]

2 hours ago, gwi1890 said:

Any bets on Punchestown festival?

This is what i have gone for today, probably be for nowt:

EL FABIOLO, TEAHUPOO, DOUGLAS TALKING in a whopping £4 EW Trixie. Then INDIE BELLE at 10.0 as an EW single. A strategy is something I am trying to figure out, seem to be too random at the moment.

My strategy is to bet with free bets, then bet with any money I've won, when its gone, I don't stop until I get some more free bets. I use the free spins from the games every day to build up a balance, I withdrew £80 yesterday from William Hill. I also do ITV7, Betway 4 to win, Paddy Power Pick 5 and Coral Racing Super Series - they are all free and you never know you may just win - I've won on the Coral Racing Super series once. 

I am still testing my system. 

 

Edited April 27, 2023 by bielesibub
smelling pistake

[bielesibub]

31 minutes ago, tomav84 said:

so my system, such as it is, uses 3rd party speed rating figures so i'm not sure what calculations go into these figures. all i know is they seem to really help. i think ideally, you would have enough time on your hands to watch every race and make your own assessment of each horse, but i don't have that time nor the knowledge to do that. anyway, this is what my spreadsheet looks like:

1) rank of average speed ratings

2) rank of best speed rating in last 12 months

3) rank of horses with decreasing marks - mark going down, rank is higher

4) i then enter racing post ratings of last 5 runs and calculate them against the mark in the next race. so if a horse got an RPR of 85 and then went up to a mark of 83 in the next race, that number is 2. i add those up and rank them...the higher the number, the better the rank with the view that performances have been generally better than the mark. i do put my own tweaks on this though...for example if the RPR was abnormally low for a horse that's been running fairly well, i will look to see if there were excuses and if so, i might discount this race otherwise it would skew my calculations

i then add the ranks together - the best possible is 4 (1+1+1+1) and then use these to create my shortlist of the best 2 or 3 which i study in more detail. often i still wont bet on them, as i prefer to use this system to look for value.

just one selection for today, Challet at 4.00 Beverley

I like this, I use the speed ratings as well, I find them better on flat races rather than jumps though.

Challet, isn't a bad shout, my system has got HORTZADAR as the winner, with PILLAR OF HOPE and CHALLET in 2nd and 3rd. I've not put anything on these horse so don't feel too nervous about mentioning them, I'm pretty sure there is some observer effect / spooky action shite that goes on whenever I dare talk about horses that I've bet on! I know I've mentioned my only bets of the day earlier so am going to test this theory out!

[Rugeley Villa]

Yeah speed  ratings I’d say are only relevant on the flats. I know of people who do their own speed figures but I haven’t got a clue about them . 

[tomav84]

18 minutes ago, bielesibub said:

I like this, I use the speed ratings as well, I find them better on flat races rather than jumps though.

Challet, isn't a bad shout, my system has got HORTZADAR as the winner, with PILLAR OF HOPE and CHALLET in 2nd and 3rd. I've not put anything on these horse so don't feel too nervous about mentioning them, I'm pretty sure there is some observer effect / spooky action shite that goes on whenever I dare talk about horses that I've bet on! I know I've mentioned my only bets of the day earlier so am going to test this theory out!

yeah i tried applying my system to cheltenham and it failed miserably so yes it only really works on flat!

for me, it's not that i'm superstitious, it's more i hate the feeling that someone has lost ££ based on a recommendation from me. i can handle losing my own money...i hate the idea i've lost someone else money though. plus i hate looking like an idiot when i send a recommendation in a whatsapp group that ends up coming last!

[bielesibub]

1 minute ago, tomav84 said:

yeah i tried applying my system to cheltenham and it failed miserably so yes it only really works on flat!

for me, it's not that i'm superstitious, it's more i hate the feeling that someone has lost ££ based on a recommendation from me. i can handle losing my own money...i hate the idea i've lost someone else money though. plus i hate looking like an idiot when i send a recommendation in a whatsapp group that ends up coming last!

Cheltenham wasn't too good for me either, I did better on the other meetings over the days though. Any recommendations are good, I'd like to think anyone who puts money on the horses knows that there is a significant risk of losing. I'd love to build a Wisdom of the crowd type of system for picking the horses, I think I'm on the right track with what I've got, I just need to fold in a bunch of peoples systems/strategies.

On the point of looking like an idiot, this is something that I've had to get used to in my life!

[Rugeley Villa]

37 minutes ago, tomav84 said:

yeah i tried applying my system to cheltenham and it failed miserably so yes it only really works on flat!

for me, it's not that i'm superstitious, it's more i hate the feeling that someone has lost ££ based on a recommendation from me. i can handle losing my own money...i hate the idea i've lost someone else money though. plus i hate looking like an idiot when i send a recommendation in a whatsapp group that ends up coming last!

Totally agree , I am the same . I’ll post a few up tomorrow under the caution do not bet on these if you want to keep your money safe  I don’t recommend bets to anyone , they are just my selections. 

[tomav84]

29 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said:

Totally agree , I am the same . I’ll post a few up tomorrow under the caution do not bet on these if you want to keep your money safe  I don’t recommend bets to anyone , they are just my selections. 

yeah exactly - ultimately i'd never 'tip' something that i've not bet on myself

[AVFC_Hitz]

Zeinab Bedawi's Twenty Hotels.