Horse Racing - the good, the bad and the ugly

[Rugeley Villa]

4.25 Uttoxeter 

Kinondu Kweto / Caribbean Boy 

[a-k]

Kentucky Derby today, if anyone is interested

[AvfcRigo82]

4 hours ago, a-k said:

Kentucky Derby today, if anyone is interested

Stuck a few quid on Derma Sotogake earlier. Managed to get 8/1.

Christophe Lumaire on board.

[bielesibub]

Computer says....

TO WIN: double

1315    NEWMARKET          ADAYAR@2.25    2 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 2
1340    LEOPARDSTOWN    AZAZAT@2.38    3 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 3

TO PLACE: E/W singles, maybe doubles?

1350    NEWMARKET           ADJUVANT@10    6 PLACES WITH SKY BET    SKYBET TERMS 6
1525    LEOPARDSTOWN    LONDONER@10    3 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 3
1525    LEOPARDSTOWN    SPREWELL@9    3 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 3
1500    NEWMARKET           WITH THE MOONLIGHT@7    4 PLACES WITH SKY BET    SKYBET TERMS 4
1425    NEWMARKET           CRACKOVIA@26    4 PLACES WITH SKY BET    SKYBET TERMS 4

LONGSHOTS: E/W singles

1510    HAMILTON         SOPHIESTICATE@23    2 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 2
1425    NEWMARKET    CRACKOVIA@26    4 PLACES WITH SKY BET    SKYBET TERMS 4
1615    NEWMARKET    LOADED GUN@26    2 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 2

 

Do bookies freebies first, also ITV7, Betway Pick 4, Coral Racing Super Series, Betway pick 4 to win.
 

Edited May 7, 2023 by bielesibub

[tomav84]

1.50

NEWMARKET

Berkshire Rocco

 

[bielesibub]

13 minutes ago, tomav84 said:

 

1.50

NEWMARKET

Berkshire Rocco

 

not a bad shout - 6 places with Sky Bet,

[Rugeley Villa]

Been away so haven’t had chance this weekend really . May get chance in bit 

[bielesibub]

4 hours ago, tomav84 said:

 

1.50

NEWMARKET

Berkshire Rocco

 

 

4 hours ago, bielesibub said:

not a bad shout - 6 places with Sky Bet,

Shame skybet didn't offer up to 10 places

[bielesibub]

Computer says:

TO WIN:

1355    AYR                    INDICATION CALL@2.63    1 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 1
1445    WORCESTER    IDEALDES VILLERETS@1.73    3 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 3
1845    WINDSOR          BUCEPHALUS@2.88    2 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 2
1540    SOUTHWELL    SEAL OF SOLOMON@2.75    2 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 2
1530    AYR                    ABU ROYAL@2.1    2 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 2
2025    WINDSOR         RACING DEMON@2.2    2 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 2
1605    AYR                    ROCK MELODY@2.88    2 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 2

TO PLACE:

1415    WORCESTER    CHARMIANS PLACE@9    3 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 3
1455    AYR                    GLASSES UP@8    4 PLACES WITH SKY BET    SKYBET TERMS 4
1905    NEWCASTLE    BIPLANE@7.5    3 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 3
1615    SOUTHWELL    SAVVY BRILLIANCE@17    3 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 3
1710    AYR                    YAKHABAR@6.5    4 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 4

LONGSHOTS:

1550    WORCESTER    ITACARE@15    4 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 4 
1745    WINDSOR          ITS GOING ROME@67    3 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 3
1905    NEWCASTLE    POP FAVORITE@15    3 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 3
1915    WINDSOR          MARY OF MODENA@15    3 PLACES WITH BETUK    SKYBET TERMS 2

Remember to do bookies freebies first, also Betway 4 to win
 

 

[tomav84]

what else is there to do on a wet bank holiday other than watching the championship and having a good bet. had a good go today:

2.25	AYR	Cheese The One
2.55	AYR	Glasses Up
3.05	SOUTHWELL (A.W)	Foursome
5.10	AYR	Yakhabar
7.50	WINDSOR	Dal Mallart
8.10	NEWCASTLE (A.W)	Shot Of Love
8.45	NEWCASTLE (A.W)	Thaki

 

[Villarocker]

I have noticed a nice pattern recently that intrigues me as a fan of racing. This is for flat racing when horses run for a first time in a handicap. This will be the handicapper working based on the horses first few runs and has no knowledge of whether the horse was really trying in those previous races. I've been seeing what look like nags starting in a handicap for the first time and being well backed. They're either winning or going very close. Something to keep an eye on for sure. 

Todays' runners are:

Roman Blaze 2.25 Ayr - currently 18/1 from 22s on Bet365. 

Sunfyre 4.35 Ayr - currently drifted out to 12/1 from 8s on Bet365 

Blue Hawaii 2.05 Southwell - currently 7/2 from 3s on Bet365 

Lynwood Lad 4.40 Windsor - currently 5/1 from 9/2 on Bet365 

Hy Brasil 6.45 Windsor - currently 50/1 from 80s on Bet365 

True Legend 5.35 Newcastle - currently evens from 11/10 on Bet365 

Gonnelot 6.05 Newcastle - currently 5/2 from 9/4 on Bet365 

In the 8.10 Newcastle there are three:

Sidney's Son - 6/1 on Bet365, Banquo - 13/2 on Bet365, Brocklesby - 20/1 on Bet365. 

I'm going to watch the markets on these today and maybe have a flutter on any that get well supported 

 

[bielesibub]

19 minutes ago, Villarocker said:

 

In the 8.10 Newcastle there are three:

Sidney's Son - 6/1 on Bet365, Banquo - 13/2 on Bet365, Brocklesby - 20/1 on Bet365. 

I'm going to watch the markets on these today and maybe have a flutter on any that get well supported 

 

20:10 - SkyBet paying 4 places, worth a shot on Brocklesby to place, maybe? I've probably jinxed it now for you.

[Rugeley Villa]

Worcester 1.45  Bun Doran 22/1

can't let him go at that price in this kind of company . 12 now and a bit inconsistent but everything is right for a good run today. 
 

£5 free bet win only 

Edited May 8, 2023 by Rugeley Villa

[tomav84]

7.45

NEWCASTLE (A.W)

Princess Karine

 

[Rugeley Villa]

4.20 Fakenham 

Duc De Beauchene 7/2

In good form and still well weighed. Should handle the further distance 

[bielesibub]

Computer says:

TO WIN:

1400    FFOS LAS         MANORBANK@2.2    2 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 2 
1845    NEWCASTLE    SNAFIYA@2.5    3 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 3
2030    LUDLOW           MARY@3.25    4 PLACES WITH SKY BET    SKYBET TERMS 4

TO PLACE:

1755    LUDLOW            ZAFAR@6.5    4 PLACES WITH SKY BET    SKYBET TERMS 4
1620    FAKENHAM      JONY MAX@8.5    4 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 4
1945    NEWCASTLE    GLORIOUS RIO@8    4 PLACES WITH SKY BET    SKYBET TERMS 4
2000    LUDLOW            STRONG BELLE@6.5    3 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 3
1748    FFOS LAS          FILANDERER@7.5    5 PLACES WITH VIRGIN BET    SKYBET TERMS 4
1705    LINGFIELD         ELLADE@9    4 PLACES WITH SKY BET    SKYBET TERMS 4

LONGSHOTS:

1755    LUDLOW          DYNALI@17    4 PLACES WITH SKY BET    SKYBET TERMS 4
1655    FAKENHAM    OVAL STREET@15    2 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 2
1705    LINGFIELD      ELLADE@9    4 PLACES WITH SKY BET    SKYBET TERMS 4
1705    LINGFIELD      KAARANAH@26    4 PLACES WITH SKY BET    SKYBET TERMS 4
1705    LINGFIELD      CIOTOG@15    4 PLACES WITH SKY BET    SKYBET TERMS 4

Remember to do the bookies freebies first, also Betway pick 4 to win.
 

[PieFacE]

9 minutes ago, bielesibub said:

Computer says:

TO WIN:

1400    FFOS LAS         MANORBANK@2.2    2 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 2 
1845    NEWCASTLE    SNAFIYA@2.5    3 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 3
2030    LUDLOW           MARY@3.25    4 PLACES WITH SKY BET    SKYBET TERMS 4

TO PLACE:

1755    LUDLOW            ZAFAR@6.5    4 PLACES WITH SKY BET    SKYBET TERMS 4
1620    FAKENHAM      JONY MAX@8.5    4 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 4
1945    NEWCASTLE    GLORIOUS RIO@8    4 PLACES WITH SKY BET    SKYBET TERMS 4
2000    LUDLOW            STRONG BELLE@6.5    3 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 3
1748    FFOS LAS          FILANDERER@7.5    5 PLACES WITH VIRGIN BET    SKYBET TERMS 4
1705    LINGFIELD         ELLADE@9    4 PLACES WITH SKY BET    SKYBET TERMS 4

LONGSHOTS:

1755    LUDLOW          DYNALI@17    4 PLACES WITH SKY BET    SKYBET TERMS 4
1655    FAKENHAM    OVAL STREET@15    2 PLACES WITH BET 365    SKYBET TERMS 2
1705    LINGFIELD      ELLADE@9    4 PLACES WITH SKY BET    SKYBET TERMS 4
1705    LINGFIELD      KAARANAH@26    4 PLACES WITH SKY BET    SKYBET TERMS 4
1705    LINGFIELD      CIOTOG@15    4 PLACES WITH SKY BET    SKYBET TERMS 4

Remember to do the bookies freebies first, also Betway pick 4 to win.
 

Just curious, how are these generated? And ever thought about creating a tipping service using BFBotManager to automate it all? Though that would only work on Betfair. 

I use BFBotManager, MBBotManager and BQBotManager daily for automated betting and it's great. 

[bielesibub]

3 minutes ago, PieFacE said:

Just curious, how are these generated? And ever thought about creating a tipping service using BFBotManager to automate it all? Though that would only work on Betfair. 

I use BFBotManager, MBBotManager and BQBotManager daily for automated betting and it's great. 

The tips are generated by combining daily racecard data and 3 prediction models trained on just under a million UK/IRE horse race results (dating from 2016, I could go further back but when I did the predictions seemed to get worse, less is more and all that). I then get the system to spew out anything that has a high percentage of winning.

I'd not even heard of BFBotManager, I did look at using the BF API but wasn't really putting enough money to warrant paying the set-up fees.  I use SkyBet mainly, unless I've won some money on the bookies freebies.

Since my health started getting in the way of work, this has been a hobby for me for a number of years.. It keeps my mind active.

[PieFacE]

10 minutes ago, bielesibub said:

The tips are generated by combining daily racecard data and 3 prediction models trained on just under a million UK/IRE horse race results (dating from 2016, I could go further back but when I did the predictions seemed to get worse, less is more and all that). I then get the system to spew out anything that has a high percentage of winning.

I'd not even heard of BFBotManager, I did look at using the BF API but wasn't really putting enough money to warrant paying the set-up fees.  I use SkyBet mainly, unless I've won some money on the bookies freebies.

Since my health started getting in the way of work, this has been a hobby for me for a number of years.. It keeps my mind active.

Oh nice! Will try out some of the predictions today! Tis a fun hobby to have. I started playing around with gambling bots as a hobby and managed to create a Greyhound strat that makes roughly 60 points a day (though took a couple of years to get to this point). Then run the same strat across 3 different exchanges which works quite well.

Edited May 9, 2023 by PieFacE

[bielesibub]

4 minutes ago, PieFacE said:

Will try out some of the predictions today! Tis a fun hobby to have.

it is fun, but very frustrating, just when you think you've nailed it, it all goes to plop... The strategy thing is something I don't really have a clue about.