Rugeley Villa Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 9 hours ago, Rugeley Villa said: 4.20 Fakenham Duc De Beauchene 7/2 In good form and still well weighed. Should handle the further distance Won at 5/1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugeley Villa Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Has anyone tried to do their own odds? I used to do it and it’s easy enough , but it’s of course only accurate if your ratings are strong enough otherwise it throws the odds out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bielesibub Posted May 9, 2023 Author Share Posted May 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Rugeley Villa said: Has anyone tried to do their own odds? I used to do it and it’s easy enough , but it’s of course only accurate if your ratings are strong enough otherwise it throws the odds out. Useful for spotting mis-priced horses? It'd be quite cool to have a go, reckon I could feed something into my system, once I've got a bit more confidence in it of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomav84 Posted May 9, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted May 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Rugeley Villa said: Has anyone tried to do their own odds? I used to do it and it’s easy enough , but it’s of course only accurate if your ratings are strong enough otherwise it throws the odds out. i've never really known how. so often i look at the figures and wonder why on earth a horse is priced as long as he is and similarly seen many odds on favourites that i just cannot comprehend why they're as short as they are but to be honest more often than not in those situations i'm proven wrong and the bookies are proven correct. nice win btw 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugeley Villa Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, bielesibub said: Useful for spotting mis-priced horses? It'd be quite cool to have a go, reckon I could feed something into my system, once I've got a bit more confidence in it of course. Yes that’s it. Basically finding value and if you can find value you win in the long run . I’m assuming your selections are all points rated , like your horses have a score next to them when you do the ratings ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugeley Villa Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 1 minute ago, tomav84 said: i've never really known how. so often i look at the figures and wonder why on earth a horse is priced as long as he is and similarly seen many odds on favourites that i just cannot comprehend why they're as short as they are but to be honest more often than not in those situations i'm proven wrong and the bookies are proven correct. nice win btw Not only is it good to find value but also weak favourites. I’m the same I’ll look at an horse and think nah no way should he be favourite and a lot don’t win . Bookies usually get it right but they definitely make mistakes . If you’re interested I can tell you how to do it, it’s pretty easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bielesibub Posted May 9, 2023 Author Share Posted May 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said: Yes that’s it. Basically finding value and if you can find value you win in the long run . I’m assuming your selections are all points rated , like your horses have a score next to them when you do the ratings ? yeah, the horses all have what's now called a 'pickled' rating - from a typing error, I'm going to bore you now, in my first attempt, my system was meant to be a dead simple horse picker only for ITV7 races, I typed picker as pickler, the kids loved it, now its called the Horse Pickler. Needless to say I've not won on ITV7, I have had 5 winners on a couple of occasions though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomav84 Posted May 9, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted May 9, 2023 12 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said: Not only is it good to find value but also weak favourites. I’m the same I’ll look at an horse and think nah no way should he be favourite and a lot don’t win . Bookies usually get it right but they definitely make mistakes . If you’re interested I can tell you how to do it, it’s pretty easy always keen to learn more, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugeley Villa Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Here we go Horse A rating 9.6 Horse B rating 8.9 Horse C rating 8.8 Horse D rating 8.1 Horse E rating 7.1 Horse F rating 6 You add those ratings up which gives you 49.1 . You then find the % of each horses chance of winning by dividing their personal rating by the rating of the whole field . For example Horse A rating 9.6 divided by the whole fields rating of 49.1 . When you’ve done that on calculator or whatever you then X that number by 100 and you’ll end up with a % so as follows …. Horse A 19.55% chance of winning Horse B 18.12% Horse C 17.92% Horse D 16.49% Horse E 14.46% Horse F 12.21% You then use this chart to give you the rough price . Horse A should be around 4/1 and Horse F around 7/1-15/2 . The method is if your top rated is 4/1 by the bookies but you have it as a 6/1 you don’t bet because you’re not getting the value your ratings say it should be . If your second rated is 10/1 and you have it down as 7/1 you’ve got the value so that’s your bet etc . Obviously there’s a cut off point so some people only use the top 3-4 in their ratings and find the value bet or use top rated if the odds are right or you have value . Hope it’s not too complicated . You soon pick it up . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugeley Villa Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 (edited) When I do my ratings that’s how they end up regarding the scores. You probably do them different and end up with different type of scores but it’s the same method when you add it all together to get the odds . I’ve not done my own odds for a bit but it’s decent fun . Edited May 9, 2023 by Rugeley Villa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvfcRigo82 Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 27 minutes ago, bielesibub said: Needless to say I've not won on ITV7, I have had 5 winners on a couple of occasions though. I hope you stick on a Lucky 63 alongside it. I remember doing the scoop6 years ago. Got 5 winners.. waiting on the last.. fell. I was proper gutted. My late old man at the time said to me did you stick them all in a Lucky 63 aswell? Stupid me, no! Pissed me off at the time as there was a 25/1 winner in there along with one at about 8's or 10's FWIR and a few FAVs. I've never done the scoop 6 since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bielesibub Posted May 9, 2023 Author Share Posted May 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, AvfcRigo82 said: I hope you stick on a Lucky 63 alongside it. nope, spent some time thinking of an excuse - I have no excuse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomav84 Posted May 9, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted May 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said: Here we go Horse A rating 9.6 Horse B rating 8.9 Horse C rating 8.8 Horse D rating 8.1 Horse E rating 7.1 Horse F rating 6 You add those ratings up which gives you 49.1 . You then find the % of each horses chance of winning by dividing their personal rating by the rating of the whole field . For example Horse A rating 9.6 divided by the whole fields rating of 49.1 . When you’ve done that on calculator or whatever you then X that number by 100 and you’ll end up with a % so as follows …. Horse A 19.55% chance of winning Horse B 18.12% Horse C 17.92% Horse D 16.49% Horse E 14.46% Horse F 12.21% You then use this chart to give you the rough price . Horse A should be around 4/1 and Horse F around 7/1-15/2 . The method is if your top rated is 4/1 by the bookies but you have it as a 6/1 you don’t bet because you’re not getting the value your ratings say it should be . If your second rated is 10/1 and you have it down as 7/1 you’ve got the value so that’s your bet etc . Obviously there’s a cut off point so some people only use the top 3-4 in their ratings and find the value bet or use top rated if the odds are right or you have value . Hope it’s not too complicated . You soon pick it up . thanks a lot for this! the annoying thing with my ratings is that they are rank based - so the lower the rating the better so i need to think of a way to invert your method so that i can translate a low % into a high one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugeley Villa Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, tomav84 said: thanks a lot for this! the annoying thing with my ratings is that they are rank based - so the lower the rating the better so i need to think of a way to invert your method so that i can translate a low % into a high one Just turn that back to front will that not work ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugeley Villa Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Lucky 15s etc etc are great . You don’t have to put a lot on to win big either . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomav84 Posted May 9, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted May 9, 2023 Just now, Rugeley Villa said: Just turn that back to front will that not work ? yeah realised as soon as i typed that it was actually very obvious how to do it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bielesibub Posted May 9, 2023 Author Share Posted May 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said: Here we go Horse A rating 9.6 Horse B rating 8.9 Horse C rating 8.8 Horse D rating 8.1 Horse E rating 7.1 Horse F rating 6 You add those ratings up which gives you 49.1 . You then find the % of each horses chance of winning by dividing their personal rating by the rating of the whole field . For example Horse A rating 9.6 divided by the whole fields rating of 49.1 . When you’ve done that on calculator or whatever you then X that number by 100 and you’ll end up with a % so as follows …. Horse A 19.55% chance of winning Horse B 18.12% Horse C 17.92% Horse D 16.49% Horse E 14.46% Horse F 12.21% You then use this chart to give you the rough price . Horse A should be around 4/1 and Horse F around 7/1-15/2 . The method is if your top rated is 4/1 by the bookies but you have it as a 6/1 you don’t bet because you’re not getting the value your ratings say it should be . If your second rated is 10/1 and you have it down as 7/1 you’ve got the value so that’s your bet etc . Obviously there’s a cut off point so some people only use the top 3-4 in their ratings and find the value bet or use top rated if the odds are right or you have value . Hope it’s not too complicated . You soon pick it up . I *think* I may be able to put this into the pickler pipeline quite easily. Thanks @Rugeley Villa. I'll share any horses that I find. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugeley Villa Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 The annoying thing is when you do it like that is when your top rated is 3/1 but you have it at 5s so you hang on for it to get to 5s or even 9/2 but it doesn’t drift and it goes on to win. Takes discipline but they say value is everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugeley Villa Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Just now, bielesibub said: I *think* I may be able to put this into the pickler pipeline quite easily. Thanks @Rugeley Villa. I'll share any horses that I find. I’m glad to hear it . Hopefully it helps and also gives you more enjoyment. I was actually shown how to do it by someone who used to do the odds for a bookie. Obviously his way of rating was different and much better than mine but it’s there for anyone to use who do their own ratings . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomav84 Posted May 9, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted May 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said: The annoying thing is when you do it like that is when your top rated is 3/1 but you have it at 5s so you hang on for it to get to 5s or even 9/2 but it doesn’t drift and it goes on to win. Takes discipline but they say value is everything. it's definitely going to be a good reference point for those on my shortlist that are around the 5/1 mark...so thanks, it's definitely going to be helpful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts