KentVillan Posted March 20, 2023 Author Share Posted March 20, 2023 Might need to retitle this thread The 2023 Banking Crisis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted March 20, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted March 20, 2023 Hopefully it's more of a case of spooked investers than a genuine deep seated issue. Hopefully the markets calm down and no more come out of the woodwork. The lasy thing the world needs is another banking crises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 It's all fine, nothing to worry about. Honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuart_75 Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 I'm going back to using a piggy bank to store my money. It'll lose less than that wanky stock market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted March 20, 2023 Author Share Posted March 20, 2023 32 minutes ago, sidcow said: Hopefully it's more of a case of spooked investers than a genuine deep seated issue. Hopefully the markets calm down and no more come out of the woodwork. The lasy thing the world needs is another banking crises. I think it’s likely a mix of the two, in the sense that nothing that has happened so far is a systemic risk… but the cause of these events is rapidly rising interest rates after a decade of very low interest rates, which is a universal problem. So it’s quite unpredictable what else will be hammered by that, since interest rates affect every area of the economy… banking, housing, business loans, consumer debt, etc etc. I think what makes a true crisis is when innocent actors get brought down as collateral damage by irresponsible actors. At the moment it seems to just be the reckless who are getting burnt, but let’s see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 What was that Warren Buffet quote? ‘When the tide goes out you find out who’s been swimming naked’? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 The world has been too used to low interest rates, low inflation and printing money. This economic situation is a necessary, albeit painful, correction. Of course there will be some casualties along the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBM Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 Been on a couple of analyst calls today and everyone seems remarkably chilled. AT1 debt did what is was supposed to so no cause for concern. Seems either we are all good or this is the start of Lehman II and we are currently at the 2007 stage of it'll all blow over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 They showed The Big Short on telly a few days back. Good movie that. Bit scary too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted March 20, 2023 Author Share Posted March 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, sne said: They showed The Big Short on telly a few days back. Good movie that. Bit scary too. FWIW, the last I saw from Steve Eisman and Michael Burry is that neither of them anticipates something along those lines happening this time round. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Deutsche Bank having a bad day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuart_75 Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 9 minutes ago, sne said: Deutsche Bank having a bad day. Got mentioned a few times on the WallStreetBets discord channel today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted March 24, 2023 Author Share Posted March 24, 2023 I know it’s probably different, and no two crises are the same. But it’s the old thing of history doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes. There is something eerily familiar about all of this. Too many of these mini crises happening too frequently atm, and every one of them shortens the runway for the next one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 32 minutes ago, sne said: Deutsche Bank having a bad day. Down 14% at one point today. It feels a lot like 2008 again. And it was only a few months ago the Tories relaxed a load of rules which were put in after the UK banking crisis. Brace, Brace, Brace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted March 24, 2023 Author Share Posted March 24, 2023 Any thoughts on this @CVByrne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 (edited) 20 minutes ago, KentVillan said: Any thoughts on this @CVByrne? SVB and the the other regional US Banks are exposed to a single sector and thus can and should fail due to their own risk management. Credit Suisse have been in scandal and crisis after crisis. It was a question of when not if they were bought or wound up. The reasons those have failed are for specific reasons relating to those banks. But what actually brings sound banks banks down is credit risk. All the banks are well capitalised and we don't have leverage the way it was in 2008. Where are the bad debts? They're just not there. So the only worry now is panic and contagion. As in people fear xyz is next or a bad bank they can spark a run on it or other banks not to facilitate trading with it. You can create a crisis from nothing. As people have memories of 2008 the fear can spread quickly. What needs to happen is banks need to raise their deposit rates. To get more money in to deposit and out of money market funds. We also need Central Banks to do and say things to calm any panic before it starts. Edited March 24, 2023 by CVByrne 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 54 minutes ago, CVByrne said: SVB and the the other regional US Banks are exposed to a single sector and thus can and should fail due to their own risk management. Credit Suisse have been in scandal and crisis after crisis. It was a question of when not if they were bought or wound up. The reasons those have failed are for specific reasons relating to those banks. But what actually brings sound banks banks down is credit risk. All the banks are well capitalised and we don't have leverage the way it was in 2008. Where are the bad debts? They're just not there. So the only worry now is panic and contagion. As in people fear xyz is next or a bad bank they can spark a run on it or other banks not to facilitate trading with it. You can create a crisis from nothing. As people have memories of 2008 the fear can spread quickly. What needs to happen is banks need to raise their deposit rates. To get more money in to deposit and out of money market funds. We also need Central Banks to do and say things to calm any panic before it starts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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