Windsor framework

[Panto_Villan]

42 minutes ago, Enda said:

Imagine if there were a war and Coventry suddenly left the UK. The Coventry First Party drew a border around their estate and held a 55% majority inside their border.  
 

Would we, one hundred years hence, be talking in hushed tones about the will of the majority in Coventry?

Yes, in the scenario you outlined, we would. I get this is an emotive topic for you, but it sounds like you're trying to say that Northern Ireland shouldn't get to choose whether it is reunified or not. If so, that's pretty wild rhetoric.

Right now the obvious examples of places that risk being absorbed by their much larger cousins are Ukraine and Taiwan, and China and Russia would say literally everything you've said about Northern Ireland in justification for their aims. They're our cousins, they've only been independent less than a hundred years, they have much smaller populations, there's a sizeable amount of support for the "motherland" there, their governments are not legitimate, etc.

If Northern Ireland votes for reunification with the Republic then I'm all for it, frankly. But it absolutely has to be their choice.

Edited February 28, 2023 by Panto_Villan

[PeterSw]

26 minutes ago, avfc1982 said:

If there was a vote in the North for unification my worry would be catholics voting to stay in the UK. There’s a lot to be said for the NHS etc. My cousins in Ireland need to pay more than €50 just to see a doctor, and I think even more for a visit to A&E. These are the things that ordinary people think of when they worry about which country they want to live in. 

I remember reading that the idea would be to have some sort of NHS style system in a new united Ireland in order to help with voters who's concerns where the above. For the life of me i can't find the article but i'll link it once I do eventually find it.

[Mr_Dogg]

1 hour ago, Enda said:

Every major political party in Ireland supports unification. From SF to FG and everyone in between.

No, there's a few who don't. 

[bickster]

Caveat: It's one poll (and I've seen others that contradict it) but it is quite recent and has some findings that buck the usual assumptions

Quote

New research yields unexpected results in Northern Irish border poll

This past week, The Irish Times published the results of twin polls conducted in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in collaboration with ARINS – Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South – a joint initiative of the Keough-Naughton Institute for Irish Studies at the University of Notre Dame's Keough School of Global Affairs and the Royal Irish Academy, an all-island body.
The simultaneous polls, conducted in August and September of this year among 1,000 voters in each of the two states, surveyed respondents’ views on the question of a united Ireland, the future of the Northern Irish state, and related political issues.

The results show that if a vote were held on Irish unification at present, voters in Northern Ireland would choose to remain part of the United Kingdom by an overwhelming majority, with only 27% choosing to unify with the Republic of Ireland compared to 50% in favor of remaining in the UK.[...]

[...]Of those polled in the Republic, 66% would support unification with Northern Ireland, more than twice the number among voters north of the border.[...]

[...]Catholic voters (in the north)were unexpectedly split. Just 55% would choose to unify with the Republic of Ireland, and 21% preferred to remain part of the UK, the same number as those who responded “I don’t know.”[...]

[...]the polls in both states have revealed the undecided voters to be a key constituency, and one who may hold the balance of power in Northern Ireland if a vote becomes reality. Voters there who expressed a religious background of “Other” will also prove significant, with more than a third (35%) against unification and another third on the fence.[...]

Keogh-Naughton School For Irish Studies

[TreeVillan]

14 hours ago, Johnnyp said:

It was extremely clever from Westminster and the EU to have Charles seen publicly meeting Von der Leyen. I sometime find NI unionists thick as pig shite. The poorest area in the UK, well known that catholics there are better educated, finish school, get good jobs. Their whole culture is wrapped around being loyal to a monarch - who’s just met the EU leader to copperfasten a deal that still means EU law will be governed in Northern Ireland. That must be pulling at the heart strings and some mental gymnastics going on They are running out of road. 

So many stereotypes in one sentence 

[bickster]

7 minutes ago, TreeVillan said:

So many stereotypes in one sentence 

I deduce from that, that you can't count above 1

[villa89]

2 hours ago, PeterSw said:

The claim is made in a document released by Ireland’s Future, a civic society organisation campaigning for a united Ireland.'

So we can safely conclude the claim is bollocks. 

There will be a lot of pro United Ireland propaganda (most of which will be lies) funded by Sinn Fein/IRA if it ever gets as far as a poll. They have more wealth than any other political party by miles and plenty more "donations" available if needed. The truth will be lost in the wash and I expect a border poll might actually result in a Yes for a united Ireland. The mess that would ensue after that doesn't bear thinking about.

Edited February 28, 2023 by villa89

[The Fun Factory]

I think a referendum vote is many years away in Ireland. I think it is more complex than just the 2021 census having more Catholics living in Northern Ireland than Protestants. Part of that is some from the traditional protestant/unionist community are now more likely to be seen to be categorised as no religion than the catholic/nationalist community. And some of that is down to parties like DUP being so traditional in social issues than to what a modern more society believes in.

[bickster]

9 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

Part of that is some from the traditional protestant/unionist community are now more likely to be seen to be categorised as no religion than the catholic/nationalist community.

This claim seems unlikely from the Census results

Quote

The remaining 9.3% of our population, or 177,400 people in Census 2021 neither belonged to nor were brought up in any religion. This group has increased in size from 2011 when 5.6% or 101,200 people were recorded in this way.

NISRA.gov

There is absolutely no way that the "No religion" demographic changes are a result of what you describe. Note the wording of the census question. 

[Panto_Villan]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

Caveat: It's one poll (and I've seen others that contradict it) but it is quite recent and has some findings that buck the usual assumptions

Keogh-Naughton School For Irish Studies

Hmm. I've not seen even one poll that has said a majority of people in NI would vote for reunification if there was a poll held today, and I did have another quick look after your last post. There was apparently a recent poll suggesting a majority of people support the idea of a unified Ireland in the next 20 years, which was perhaps what you were referring to, but to my mind that's something quite different.

As I mentioned earlier in the thread, though, the long-form piece I read on the matter a while back suggested that nowadays the people of NI are now making these decisions on bread and butter issues rather than ideological / religious reasons. So if there was a credible plan put together where the current public services (especially free healthcare) in NI was guaranteed with unification then you might well find a majority of people in NI would suddenly be willing to support it.

And it doesn't seem completely implausible to me that a UK government (particularly a non-Tory one) might be willing to enter good faith negotiations about what a handover agreement could actually look like, which would then give a solid basis for a proper vote on unification. It's possible the EU would provide some funds to help pay for it, too, which might help reduce the chances of voters in the Republic balking at the price tag that reunification might well otherwise come with.

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

There was apparently a recent poll suggesting a majority of people support the idea of a unified Ireland in the next 20 years

That maybe the one but the next 20 years isn't exactly that far away, this will never happen overnight. There would have to be one hell of a transition period

[PeterSw]

Having a working government in Stormont would be handy too

[villa89]

33 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

I think a referendum vote is many years away in Ireland. 

What you have to watch out for is the rise of Sinn Fein/IRA in the Republic. Fianna Fáil are on the verge of collapse (centre) and the Irish Labour Party is basically dead. This leave a huge gap for an opposition party to create a standard right/left political system.  That left gap will be filled by Sinn Fein/IRA and the result of that could be them in government (plus few of a lunatic lefties to prop them up) down south. Once that happens everything done in the republic will be geared towards a border poll. Right up to bizarre policies which could bankrupt the country. I don't think people in the Republic realise the machine Sinn Fien/IRA have supporting them, the rest of the parties can't compete with it as they don't have access to the same funding, most of which can be hidden in NI.

[villa89]

4 minutes ago, PeterSw said:

Having a working government in Stormont would be handy too

Neither side really wants Stormont to work, they just want to be able to blame the other side for it not working.

[The Fun Factory]

33 minutes ago, bickster said:

This claim seems unlikely from the Census results

NISRA.gov

There is absolutely no way that the "No religion" demographic changes are a result of what you describe. Note the wording of the census question. 

So why are the only 2 categories that have increased since 2011 been catholic or no religion then?

And the areas of the highest no religion are in the north east in antrim which traditionally was the strongest protestant areas?

Edited February 28, 2023 by The Fun Factory

[PeterSw]

10 minutes ago, villa89 said:

Neither side really wants Stormont to work, they just want to be able to blame the other side for it not working

And, for the most part, claim full pay for doing so I imagine

[sidcow]

I don't like the noises coming out of the DUP 

They seem like a worse bunch of Throbbers than the modern Tory party. 

[villakram]

There will likely be conditions present to trigger a vote before 2030. But circumstances.

Regarding budget, a united Ireland would face economic challenges, but as with Germany before and elsewhere, with a little extra financial support (EU/US etc), it shouldn't have any fundamental long term issues. Of course, the currently strong "we're in the EU advantage" may not last much longer given the emerging sensibility being knocked into the UK establishment by economic reality. 

 

[Genie]

YouGov having a laugh today, asking who negotiated the better deal Rishi Sunak or Boris Johnson?  

Spoiler: 5% of people think Boris Johnson negotiated the better deal

[bickster]

25 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

So why are the only 2 categories that have increased since 2011 been catholic or no religion then?

And the areas of the highest no religion are in the north east in antrim which traditionally was the strongest protestant areas?

The Protestant population has been falling for decades, It has always been predicted that the Catholic Population would overtake the Protestant around now, since way before the Troubles began. (the decline started in the mid 19th Century)

From the Census figures again, so you can see that there is a 2:1 split. The Catholic population may be growing but it also contributes significantly to those that have seen the light and rejected Sky Fairies

Quote

Religion/religion of upbringing Number Percentage

Catholic 869,800 45.7%

• Current religion 805,200 42.3%
• Religion of upbringing 64,600 3.4%

Protestant and other Christian (including Christian related) 827,500 43.5%

• Current religion 711,000 37.4%
• Religion of upbringing 116,600 6.1%

Other religions 28,500 1.5%

• Current religion 25,500 1.3%
• Religion of upbringing 3,000 0.2%

None 177,400 9.3%
All usual residents 1,903,200 100.0%