Windsor framework

[Johnnyp]

2 hours ago, villa89 said:

The point about re-unification that people always miss is who exactly is going to pay for it. NI is a basket case economy propped up by billions of her majesty's pounds every year. The Republic can't afford to subsidise 6 counties like that. 

I don’t think it would be a case, and im paraphrasing “ we hand it over to you on a Tuesday and from Wednesday morning on it’s yours “ The withdrawal would be deliberate and incremental. I read before that if such a scenario came to pass, Westminster would stay be financing Northern Ireland in part for a good while. Inevitably though, with NI remaining part of the EU essentially in this deal, Dublin and Brussels will become a bigger trading partner than ever before. The politics will follow. Eventually a United Ireland, economically. 

[villa89]

2 minutes ago, Johnnyp said:

Eventually a United Ireland, economically. 

Which would end up with a poorer united Ireland than if the current situation remained. The republic can't afford to subsidise NI and any notion that a united Ireland would lead to economic boom up north is a misnomer. They are already part of the EU free market and have been for decades, hasn't done them much good. 

[Enda]

Sinn Féin are the largest party in the North. That’s the clearest indicator of NI’s preference for reunification. There are other more subtle indicators too, like the most recent census recording more Catholics than Protestants, and the surge of Nordies claiming their Irish passports post-Brexit. There is momentum towards a majority, but not there yet I don’t think.

The south absolutely can afford the North. That’s exaggerated imho. The Republic is one of the richest countries in the world, no bother to us.

[Panto_Villan]

5 minutes ago, Johnnyp said:

I don’t think it would be a case, and im paraphrasing “ we hand it over to you on a Tuesday and from Wednesday morning on it’s yours “ The withdrawal would be deliberate and incremental. I read before that if such a scenario came to pass, Westminster would stay be financing Northern Ireland in part for a good while. Inevitably though, with NI remaining part of the EU essentially in this deal, Dublin and Brussels will become a bigger trading partner than ever before. The politics will follow. Eventually a United Ireland, economically. 

I guess the question for you is how much you actually want NI within Ireland, and why you want it?

I think you’re right that over time the old hatred will evaporate but that doesn’t necessarily result in countries wanting to join together. If the status quo ends up working people on both sides might think “why change it?” (by watering down their own political representation) and the memory of a united Ireland is also disappearing further and further into the past with each year.

Not to say it won’t happen, of course. I just don’t think it’s going to happen automatically with the passage of time. Recent political trends are more about countries breaking apart than merging together.

[Panto_Villan]

5 minutes ago, Enda said:

Sinn Féin are the largest party in the North. That’s the clearest indicator of NI’s preference for reunification. There are other more subtle indicators too, like the most recent census recording more Catholics than Protestants, and the surge of Nordies claiming their Irish passports post-Brexit. There is momentum towards a majority, but not there yet I don’t think.

The south absolutely can afford the North. That’s exaggerated imho. The Republic is one of the richest countries in the world, no bother to us.

It is of course true that the South *can* afford the North if they want, but the question is - do they want to?

Looks like total tax take in Ireland last year was about £83bn, while the UK paid out net £15bn to subsidise NI.

Are there enough romantics in Ireland to vote for taxes going up by 20% to pay for reunification (along with all the potential political problems)?

[Enda]

13 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

I guess the question for you is how much you actually want NI within Ireland, and why you want it?

Because they’re our cousins up there, they’re Irish citizens, it’s traditionally our territory, and 100 years of unionist (mis)rule up there doesn’t mean the status quo is somehow acceptable.

The concept of NI only originated a hundred years ago. Its borders were drawn in such a hasty way and an ad hoc fashion that both parties to the Anglo-Irish Treaty agreed they would be changed within five years (but that never happened). It’s literally there in the Treaty. Thus NI is an absurd, artificial, gerrymandered statelet. If there were an all-island vote tomorrow, NI would cease to exist. It’s madness.

Edited February 28, 2023 by Enda
Typo

[Enda]

1 minute ago, Panto_Villan said:

It is of course true that the South *can* afford the North if they want, but the question is - do they want to?

Looks like total tax take in Ireland last year was about £83bn, while the UK paid out net £15bn to subsidise NI.

Are there enough romantics in Ireland to vote for taxes going up by 20% to pay for reunification (along with all the potential political problems)?

That deficit exists under the UK system. It wouldn’t apply in our system. For example, VAT is 20% in UK but 23% in Ireland. Not a massive difference but it means that deficit falls even without any change in our taxes.

Would we accept 25% VAT rates for the restoration of the national territory? Of course we would.

[Mr_Dogg]

2 minutes ago, Enda said:

That deficit exists under the UK system. It wouldn’t apply in our system. For example, VAT is 20% in UK but 23% in Ireland. Not a massive difference but it means that deficit falls even without any change in our taxes.

Would we accept 25% VAT rates for the restoration of the national territory? Of course we would.

Say I not we.

[The Fun Factory]

The DUP are fast becoming irrelevant, and the longer they say no to everything the more likely that they will get left behind. Middle-class progressive unionists are leaving them in droves and voting for the Alliance. The majority of people in Northern Ireland just want to get on with it.

The census data suggests a move towards unification, but obviously not as simple as that. I am not an expert and don't want to take sides but ultimately I would think the majority would want a return to as near as pre Brexit good Friday arrangement with good arrangements for both the republic of Ireland and the UK.

Edited February 28, 2023 by The Fun Factory

[Mr_Dogg]

The question of a vote on reunification cannot simply be majority rules. If 51% voted for it, you are simply inviting trouble.

There would need to be widespread consensus for it, even then there would be violence.

[Johnnyp]

3 minutes ago, Enda said:

Because they’re our cousins up there, they’re Irish citizens, it’s traditionally our territory, and 100 years of unionist (mi—)rule up there doesn’t mean the status quo is somehow acceptable.

The concept of NI only originated a hundred years ago. Its borders were has drawn in such a hasty way and an ad hoc fashion that both parties to Anglo-Irish Treaty agreed they would be changed within five years (but that never happened). It’s literally there in the Treaty. Thus NI is an absurd, artificial, gerrymandered statelet. If there were an all-island vote tomorrow, NI would cease to exist. It’s madness.

I certainly would want a reunification vote eventually, but not tomorrow. Say if a vote for a United Ireland won. The good friday agreement says the number would have to be 50 plus 1. Not 51 % !! 50 plus literally one vote. If Nationalism won a vote at margins so tight and it was 50 plus 1 - how on earth could you drag unionism into a united ireland with a razor tight victory like that. It would never work. Back to violence. I’d hope the secretary of state calls the border poll when the demographics have changed considerably and there is a sense after lots of planning and conversing with unionist communities, they’d be open to it. 

[Johnnyp]

1 minute ago, The Fun Factory said:

The DUP are fast becoming irrelevant, and the longer they say no to everything the more likely that they will get left behind. Middle-class progressive unionists are leaving them in droves and voting for the Alliance. The majority of people in Northern Ireland just want to get on with it.

Very true. You can’t eat a flag. 

[Enda]

1 minute ago, Mr_Dogg said:

Say I not we.

Every major political party in Ireland supports unification. From SF to FG and everyone in between.

[chrisp65]

7 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

It is of course true that the South *can* afford the North if they want, but the question is - do they want to?

Looks like total tax take in Ireland last year was about £83bn, while the UK paid out net £15bn to subsidise NI.

Are there enough romantics in Ireland to vote for taxes going up by 20% to pay for reunification (along with all the potential political problems)?

You cannot presume that Westminster accounts that show N.I. being run at a loss would be a true reflection of life if it wasn’t run by Westminster. The UK is run to service the south east of england, if that was not a requirement who knows what N.I. might or might not become.

It’s also about more than money, you’d surely only have to look as far as Germany to see that.

[Enda]

5 minutes ago, Johnnyp said:

I certainly would want a reunification vote eventually, but not tomorrow. Say if a vote for a United Ireland won. The good friday agreement says the number would have to be 50 plus 1. Not 51 % !! 50 plus literally one vote. If Nationalism won a vote at margins so tight and it was 50 plus 1 - how on earth could you drag unionism into a united ireland with a razor tight victory like that. It would never work. Back to violence. I’d hope the secretary of state calls the border poll when the demographics have changed considerably and there is a sense after lots of planning and conversing with unionist communities, they’d be open to it. 

If it’s a vote of all Ulster, it’s already comfortably ~60% in favour. The discussion of 51% only comes about when we focus on those six counties. But those six counties were designed to have unionist majorities. They excluded the rest of Ulster precisely for that undemocratic reason 

We need to respect the borders and be adults about it, of course, but let’s not pretend the majority of a manufactured state has some great democratic importance. It was undemocratic at birth, by design.

[Panto_Villan]

5 minutes ago, Enda said:

That deficit exists under the UK system. It wouldn’t apply in our system. For example, VAT is 20% in UK but 23% in Ireland. Not a massive difference but it means that deficit falls even without any change in our taxes.

Would we accept 25% VAT rates for the restoration of the national territory? Of course we would.

That's just not true though - Ireland has famously low taxes, as I'm sure you're well aware. That 15bn would be even larger under the Irish tax system. You guys have a tax take of of 21.1% of GDP and the UK has a tax take of 27.8% of GDP.

And that's heavily distorted by the fact you get far more corporate tax than the average country as so many corporations have their HQ there for tax reasons. You can't put those taxes up too much without eroding your competitive advantage there, so those tax increases would have to fall far more heavily on the population than on corporations. It's not a number that's easy to absorb.

Conveniently your annual VAT take is currently around £15bn. Sure, you're willing to pay 25% VAT rates for reunification, but that's a drop in the ocean - would you be willing to pay 50% VAT rates?

Ireland is a rich, successful economy but I think you're massively underestimating the actual cost of integrating the North. I'm not sure if taxpayers in the south would actually be willing to foot the bill, although the matter might be smoothed over if the EU stepped in to help or something.

[Enda]

Imagine if there were a war and Coventry suddenly left the UK. The Coventry First Party drew a border around their estate and held a 55% majority inside their border.  
 

Would we, one hundred years hence, be talking in hushed tones about the will of the majority in Coventry?

[Johnnyp]

8 minutes ago, Enda said:

Imagine if there were a war and Coventry suddenly left the UK. The Coventry First Party drew a border around their estate and held a 55% majority inside their border.  
 

Would we, one hundred years hence, be talking in hushed tones about the will of the majority in Coventry?

Exactly yes. NI makes up, population wise about 4% of the UK. Hampshire nearly the same !! Then you half that 4% probably because it’s representative of all NI which nationalists are the majority - so the unionist NI Ireland makes up about under 2% of the UK. Let that sink in. Like i said previously, they are fast running out of road. 

[avfc1982]

If there was a vote in the North for unification my worry would be catholics voting to stay in the UK. There’s a lot to be said for the NHS etc. My cousins in Ireland need to pay more than €50 just to see a doctor, and I think even more for a visit to A&E. These are the things that ordinary people think of when they worry about which country they want to live in. 

[PeterSw]

3 hours ago, villa89 said:

The point about re-unification that people always miss is who exactly is going to pay for it. NI is a basket case economy propped up by billions of her majesty's pounds every year. The Republic can't afford to subsidise 6 counties like that. 

I read this article a while back about the costs etc. Don't think it's behind a paywall - 

Irish unification would cost €4bn a year not €10bn - research finds – The Irish Times

'A united Ireland would cost the Republic €4 billion a year and would be affordable, according to new research.

The claim is made in a document released by Ireland’s Future, a civic society organisation campaigning for a united Ireland.'