Formula One - 2020

[welnik]

14 hours ago, Genie said:

Today we’ve seen that pretty much anyone in that car can be world champion. Lewis is a special driver, but I expect that quite a few of the current generation could win multiple world championships in that car. Makes me wonder why they continue to pay Lewis so much.

It has underlined that Mercedes don’t have any competition at all. The only thing that can beat them is themselves.

That's too simplistic a view. Has Bottas got a WDC? Has Rosberg got more than 1. If it was simply the car, they would both have run Lewis close every year and pipped him more than once. Was Merc the best car last year? The year before? 

Russell is dragging a complete dog of a car up there with the midfield. Is it just his car is better than his teammates?

Russell is an excellent driver who will win at least one championship.

[Genie]

7 minutes ago, welnik said:

That's too simplistic a view. Has Bottas got a WDC?

No, because he’s nothing special as a driver as seen yesterday. Despite this he’ll comfortably finish 2nd because of the superiority of the car.

9 minutes ago, welnik said:

Has Rosberg got more than 1

In the first season the were partners they finished 4th and 6th. Then when the car became amazing they finished 1st and second every season with Lewis winning 2 and Rosberg 1 championship.

10 minutes ago, welnik said:

Was Merc the best car last year? The year before? 

Yes, and yes. 

20 minutes ago, welnik said:

Russell is dragging a complete dog of a car up there with the midfield. Is it just his car is better than his teammates?

There wasn’t an awful lot between him and Latifi this season.

Last year Kubica was well of the pace for well known reasons.

22 minutes ago, welnik said:

Russell is an excellent driver who will win at least one championship.

Maybe, if he gets to drive the Mercedes again. Nobody will win it anytime soon outside of that car.

[Stevo985]

In reality it's a bit of both isn't it?

Russell is, by all accounts, a very good driver. It's not like they put some no hoper in the car. They've put someone in who they obviously know is a big prospect and has been outperforming his teammate at Williams. If they didn't rate Russell so highly they would have just stuck with Vandoorne. That he went in and looked, at a minimum, on par with Bottas is testament to that.

But the Mercedes is obviously the best car on the grid. Yeah other drivers could win world titles in it, but would they be as dominant as Lewis.

The ferrari was the best car on the grid when Schumacher was winning most of his titles too

[Genie]

30 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

In reality it's a bit of both isn't it?

Russell is, by all accounts, a very good driver. It's not like they put some no hoper in the car. They've put someone in who they obviously know is a big prospect and has been outperforming his teammate at Williams. If they didn't rate Russell so highly they would have just stuck with Vandoorne. That he went in and looked, at a minimum, on par with Bottas is testament to that.

But the Mercedes is obviously the best car on the grid. Yeah other drivers could win world titles in it, but would they be as dominant as Lewis.

The ferrari was the best car on the grid when Schumacher was winning most of his titles too

That’s absolutely correct Mr Stevo.

Lewis is a special talent which I’ve said many times. George Russell too looks promising.

The point was though from his drive yesterday you can’t just correlate he’s amazing, because he’s in comfortably the fastest car to start with and it’s only 1 race (combined with the fact the 2 best challengers didn’t finish lap 1).

All you need is someone better than Bottas and bingo, you’re world champion.

Edited December 7, 2020 by Genie

[Rodders]

i think the opinions of peers is all you need to know if in doubt. I've said as much it would be nice to see the top drivers in similar level cars, but ultimately everyone in the paddock recognises Hamilton's ability so if they all recognise his genius, then that'll do for me. But, yeah sometimes as an outsider it's easy to point out that Hamilton wouldn't be winning those championships in the other cars. If he was in a red bull he might have gone close against whoever was in a mercedes though. That's the nature of the sport, all you can do is maximise everything the car can do. Lewis does that with his cars at an optimum level that not everyone else will do

 

[Genie]

It makes me wonder if Mercedes need Lewis. They’ve made such an incredible car they could probably save a good chunk of his reported £40m salary and get another good driver in to do the business.

Maybe they get more benefit from Lewis (marketing, exposure etc) as well as his exceptional driving ability to justify the salary.

[BOF]

It's also possible you might be wrong about putting 'pretty much anyone' in the car and making them a champion. I think you're way off FWIW. I think Merc pay him what they pay him because he is the difference between them winning titles and not winning titles. In my opinion if you take Lewis out of the Merc this year and replace him with anyone other than 2, maybe 3 other drivers (Leclerc, Ricciardo) then Max Verstappen becomes the world champion in the Red Bull (as Max is the main competition to Merc, I'm excluding him from the Merc seat).

But whether Max would or not is actually irrelevant.  Even the possibility that he could do it makes Hamilton's presence in the Merc priceless ... or £40m, whatever it is.

Yes you need the car under you, but the driver makes a massive difference too.

[Genie]

7 minutes ago, BOF said:

It's also possible you might be wrong about putting 'pretty much anyone' in the car and making them a champion. I think you're way off FWIW

Where did I say that? 

[BOF]

12 minutes ago, Genie said:

Where did I say that? 

Here.

17 hours ago, Genie said:

Today we’ve seen that pretty much anyone in that car can be world champion. Lewis is a special driver, but I expect that quite a few of the current generation could win multiple world championships in that car. Makes me wonder why they continue to pay Lewis so much.

It has underlined that Mercedes don’t have any competition at all. The only thing that can beat them is themselves.

 

[Genie]

10 minutes ago, BOF said:

In my opinion if you take Lewis out of the Merc this year and replace him with anyone other than 2, maybe 3 other drivers (Leclerc, Ricciardo) then Max Verstappen becomes the world champion in the Red Bull (as Max is the main competition to Merc

I’m not sure about that. You’d have to be a pretty poor driver to give up 150 points to Max in the Red Bull and hand him the title.

If they put an absolutely terrible driver into Lewis seat then Merc driver 2 would comfortably win the championship by hoovering up the wins Lewis’s replacement is leaving on the floor. Max only won 1 race this year because the Red Bull can’t compete with the Mercedes regularly.

[Genie]

4 minutes ago, BOF said:

Here.

 

Ah, yes, fair enough. I did add to it later

Quote

All you need is someone better than Bottas and bingo, you’re world champion.

 

[BOF]

1 minute ago, Genie said:

I’m not sure about that. You’d have to be a pretty poor driver to give up 150 points to Max in the Red Bull and hand him the title.

If they put an absolutely terrible driver into Lewis seat then Merc driver 2 would comfortably win the championship by hoovering up the wins Lewis’s replacement is leaving on the floor. Max only won 1 race this year because the Red Bull can’t compete with the Mercedes regularly.

Valtteri and Max are 16pts apart. They both have 10 podiums this season. Max is just as likely to hoover up Lewis' wins as Bottas is, and with a weaker team-mate than Lewis Hamilton, Valtteri is much less likely to be in a strategic position to capitalise. That puts Max ahead of him. Now assuming you are putting a driver in the car who is not as good as Lewis, you will not be 150pts ahead. You will be at Valtteri's level instead, and make no mistake Valtteri is a very high level. So now you're in a situation where Max is ahead of Valtteri and you have to find a driver who is at least as fast as Valtteri and voila you are now in a situation where you are risking your title. And that's point.  It doesn't even have to happen. It only has to be possible in order for Lewis to be worth the money. With Lewis you are guaranteein the title. With virtually anyone else you are in massive danger.

[OutByEaster?]

I don't like the look of Russell. Dunno why, but it's there and I cannot bring myself to like him.

 

[Genie]

26 minutes ago, BOF said:

and with a weaker team-mate than Lewis Hamilton, Valtteri is much less likely to be in a strategic position to capitalise

What’s the logic behind that?

Also, Bottas has 5 poles to Max’s zero and has finished higher than Max more times than Max has finished above him.

If the trend continues and Lewis is replaced by someone not getting into the top 2 then the gap between VB and MV will widen because the points between 1st and 2nd are 7 each time, rather than 3 points gap between 2nd and 3rd.

 

 

 

 

 

[BOF]

We can go into hypotheticals and we'll not really prove anything.  From Mercedes' point of view it's all about eliminating the risk of losing the title. Lewis does that.  My point is almost everyone else brings with them a risk that just opens the door to Red Bull even a bit.  Max, remember, has been doing it all alone this season. Red Bull have not been able to upset Merc's strategy at all because they haven't been able to split them.  I go back to what is ultimately the most important thing for Merc. Losing the title doesn't even have to happen. It only has to become possible in order for Lewis to be worth the money they're paying him. The rest is hypothetical scenarios that they don't need to entertain because Lewis.

[BOF]

9 minutes ago, Genie said:

What’s the logic behind that?

Also, Bottas has 5 poles to Max’s zero and has finished higher than Max more times than Max has finished above him.

If the trend continues and Lewis is replaced by someone not getting into the top 2 then the gap between VB and MV will widen because the points between 1st and 2nd are 7 each time, rather than 3 points gap between 2nd and 3rd.

Yep but your stats are from a season that has Lewis in the Merc. We're on about a season that doesn't have Lewis, and I think if Bottas was leading that team Max would eat him for breakfast. It's also why the discussion is largely pointless as we can't prove anything.

[Genie]

4 minutes ago, BOF said:

Yep but your stats are from a season that has Lewis in the Merc. We're on about a season that doesn't have Lewis, and I think if Bottas was leading that team Max would eat him for breakfast. It's also why the discussion is largely pointless as we can't prove anything.

If you took Lewis out, then VB would continue to out perform MV as his car is much quicker, and the points gap would be larger because of the +7’s rather than +3’s.

Being the main driver Bottas would be out in front more and qualify on pole more too based on recent form. He’d probably get more bonus points for fastest lap too, again because of the superiority of the car and the fact he’s in clear air.

I don’t think Bottas is getting any benefit from Lewis being number 1 in his battle to be best of the rest. 

[OutByEaster?]

That's a great hypothetical though - who would win out of Max in the Red Bull and Bottas in the Merc?

Personally, over the course of a season I'd probably go with Bottas - but it'd be closer than it is with Hamilton - we''ll never know sadly; the Merc has all the best parts, including the best driver they can get and sadly they aren't prepared to risk it just to prove how very clever their engineers are.

 

[BOF]

2 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

That's a great hypothetical though - who would win out of Max in the Red Bull and Bottas in the Merc?

Personally, over the course of a season I'd probably go with Bottas - but it'd be closer than it is with Hamilton - we''ll never know sadly; the Merc has all the best parts, including the best driver they can get and sadly they aren't prepared to risk it just to prove how very clever their engineers are.

Yeah they're good hypotheticals but that's also only painting a partial scenario.  Go further. If you put Hamilton in the Red Bull alongside Max, and you put Albon in the Merc, who then wins between Max and Bottas? Because then it's Red Bull who have the luxury of the strategy splits and Bottas has the intangible pressure of having to run at the front unaided by a teammate and bombarded by another team.  For me, the only scenario where Bottas beats Max is the current one where Bottas has a formidable teammate and Max doesn't have one.

[Genie]

4 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

Merc has all the best parts, including the best driver they can get and sadly they aren't prepared to risk it just to prove how very clever their engineers are.

Yeah I agree, and why not. If the budget is there for them to have him then absolutely. 
If Russell drives for them again, and gets what he deserved last time I wonder if the bean counters back in Stuttgart start thinking about overall value for money (Lewis is possibly still value for money because of his huge off the track profile).