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Derby vs Fulham play offs

Demitri_C

By Demitri_C
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BOF Grand Master

BOF

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2 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

When derby came to villa park they defended excellently but we were woeful with our finishing. 

They have arguably better finishers in the likes of mitrovic and sessagnon. I think they will get destroyed if they setup how they did at villa park.

This is from their previous visit to Craven Cottage.  A 1-1 draw back in November.  2 shots on target and 6 off target for Fulham suggests they were restricted to long distance pot shots as Derby let them have the ball.  I imagine something similar tonight.  As you say, it will come down to who takes their chances.

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bannedfromHandV Grand Master

bannedfromHandV

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On 12/05/2018 at 13:56, Daweii said:

I could understand a lack of fans for a weekday kick-off even if it is on Friday evening, but to not sell out an important game happening on a Saturday is surprising to me. 

They're a shit club with shit fans.

Even when they were doing relatively well in the Prem, winning cups and having European adventures they struggled to fill the stadium consistently, and it aint that big a stadium either.

 

As many others have said, if we were going off size and stature we'd already have been promoted.

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Davkaus Grand Master

Davkaus

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Tbf, Middlesbrough is poor as hell, with high unemployment, and what jobs are available in the area tend to be unskilled labour's that paid like shit. It's one of the most struggling places in the UK, I'm not surprised they struggle to pack the place out.

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MessiWillSignForVilla Experienced

MessiWillSignForVilla

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3 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

When derby came to villa park they defended excellently but we were woeful with our finishing. 

They have arguably better finishers in the likes of mitrovic and sessagnon. I think they will get destroyed if they setup how they did at villa park.

But that's exactly how Derby played against Fulham on Friday, and that style is suited to nullifying Fulham.

 

Just looking at the stats you can see that the two games were quite similar.

 

Possession: Villa v Derby was 72.1-27.9 to Villa, Derby v Fulham was 26.2-73.8 to Fulham.

Pass Success: Villa-Derby was 89%-73% in Villas favour. Derby v Fulham was 68%-90% in Fulhams favour.

Dribbles: Both games exactly the same, 15-8 for Villa/Fulham.

Tackles: Villa-Debry had 9-21 tackles in Derby's favour, whilst Derby v Fulham was 25-11 tackles in Derby's favour.

Corners: 9-2 for Villa and 8-2 for Fulham.

Basically, in both games, Derby were on the back foot against teams that took the game to them, and in both games, Derby took an early lead to facilitate this sitting back. Looking at that you might dismiss the difference in scores as simply us getting the rub of the green and Fulham not, yet if you'd watched our game against Derby then it was easy to tell we really should have run away with it. There are a couple more stats that I think explains why Fulham couldn't beat Derby whilst we should have won convincingly. And they are;

 

Shots (On Target): Villa v Derby was 24(6) - 7(3), Derby v Fulham was 3(1) - 13(2).

Expected Goals (xG): Villa v Derby was 4.43-0.77, Derby v Fulham was 0.16-0.85.  (I know a lot of people don't like xG, but I think it's useful for determining performance and providing context to all the other stats.)

These two stats tell us that Derby restricted not only the number of chances that Fulham had compared to our game but also the quality of chances. Looking at the shot locations for Fulham, 8 were from outside the box, and none of them were closer than the penalty spot. Fulham spent much of the game passing the ball around the midfield looking to break down Derby's defence but couldn't get the ball in the box. Looking at our game we had about 9 long shots, but as we had 11 more shots in total it means we had 15 shots in the box, more than Fulham had all night on Friday. Plus we had 7 shots inside the 6-yard box. That leads me to the final stat I want to mention, and it's a major one.

 

Crosses: Villa v Derby had 44 - 10 crosses, whereas Derby v Fulham had 14 - 11 crosses.

Fulham refused to cross the ball on Friday night, even to the point of wasting their corners by taking them short. We crossed Derby to death and it got us chances, but the way Fulham play is a rigid adherence to possession football and short passing, they look to pass through the middle and when Derby just park their team on the edge of the box, you're not gonna pass it through them. This is one of the major discrepancies between the two matches as most other stats are very similar, and it resulted in us coming away from the game feeling shortchanged and Fulham frustrated but ultimately not getting much less than they deserved.

 

If Fulham play like they did on Friday, I can see Derby either getting the draw or nicking another win, as I can't see Fulham creating much if they rigidly stick to they way they played in that game.

 

Sorry for the long and boring post about stats, I just find it interesting that Fulham have this aura about the way they play, yet it was the major thing that held them back against Derby. Yes, Derby performed brilliantly on Friday and will need to do so again, but Fulham didn't do enough to break them down and played into Derby's hands. Plus there's an interesting parallel between our game against Derby and Fulham's, with the major difference being the style of play that had huge differences in effectiveness.

 

TL;DR - Fulham don't cross enough and Derby will let you pass the ball in midfield all game and put 10 men behind the ball stopping you from creating decent chances.

Edited by MessiWillSignForVilla
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MessiWillSignForVilla Experienced

MessiWillSignForVilla

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1 minute ago, osmark86 said:

I get the feeling Fulham think they're barca at times..

Jokanovic seems to be one of those managers that has drunk the possession football kool-aid, so Fulham must play that way at all times no matter what. Games like this need pragmatism, not rigidly sticking to the "right" style of play.

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BleedClaretAndBlue Grand Master

BleedClaretAndBlue

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1 minute ago, osmark86 said:

I get the feeling Fulham think they're barca at times..

Think most teams would subconsciously when u go 23 unbeaten with as many wins as they rack up. Begin to feel you'll never lose again no matter what division you play in. Hopefully now after bk2bk losses it will all unravel for them at the worst possible time 

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osmark86 Grand Master

osmark86

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Just now, MessiWillSignForVilla said:

Jokanovic seems to be one of those managers that has drunk the possession football kool-aid, so Fulham must play that way at all times no matter what. Games like this need pragmatism, not rigidly sticking to the "right" style of play.

Bang on Messi

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osmark86 Grand Master

osmark86

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1 minute ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

Think most teams would subconsciously when u go 23 unbeaten with as many wins as they rack up. Begin to feel you'll never lose again no matter what division you play in. Hopefully now after bk2bk losses it will all unravel for them at the worst possible time 

Agreed and it's a bit understandable. Watching this game I still have a sneaking suspicion that Fulham might just get through. They're very open at the back though, so if Derby gets the first goal (I can't see this ending goalless) I think they'll crumble. Come on, Weimann. Do us the favor.

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