Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Chindie]

Russia whinging about DU rounds being used is simply them wanting to prevent Ukrainian power expanding and using disinformation to try to influence the narrative to that end. 

They even have DU options themselves.

[MakemineVanilla]

 

[magnkarl]

38 minutes ago, MakemineVanilla said:

 

God, have a look at them two. They look like they've run out of cash - Putin must be stopping payment.

Wet tramps. Both part of STWC and No2NATO. Both proven vatniks.

Edited March 22, 2023 by magnkarl

[Genie]

9 hours ago, Chindie said:

Russia whinging about DU rounds being used is simply them wanting to prevent Ukrainian power expanding and using disinformation to try to influence the narrative to that end. 

They even have DU options themselves.

We know what they are, they know what they are… but Putin will (and has) state that the UK / Nato has brought nuclear weapons onto the battlefield. If Russia did the same it would be in retaliation and not them escalating things.

I think we should have just used regular ammunition and avoided this exchange.

[magnkarl]

3 minutes ago, Genie said:

We know what they are, they know what they are… but Putin will (and has) state that the UK / Nato has brought nuclear weapons onto the battlefield. If Russia did the same it would be in retaliation and not them escalating things.

I think we should have just used regular ammunition and avoided this exchange.

Russia has had DU rounds for their T90's in situ since Feb 2022. It's a mute point.

Edited March 22, 2023 by magnkarl

[Genie]

1 minute ago, magnkarl said:

Russia has had DU rounds for their T90's in situ since Feb 2022.

Why is he making the point that they need to react to it then?

Even if it were the case, I still think it should have been avoided. We can’t really hold the moral high ground if behave in the same way. 

[magnkarl]

5 minutes ago, Genie said:

Why is he making the point that they need to react to it then?

Even if it were the case, I still think it should have been avoided. We can’t really hold the moral high ground if behave in the same way. 

It's the same as when he said Ukraine is using incendiary weapons after he'd dropped a shit ton of phosphorus onto civilian structures for months. No one gives a hoot about what Putin and his cronies is threatening with anymore.

A depleted uranium shell isn't a nuclear weapon, it's just a very dense material, also used in imaging machines in hospitals, for chemo therapy, as counter weights in aircraft etc. 

Edited March 22, 2023 by magnkarl

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

29 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Wet tramps. Both part of STWC and No2NATO. Both proven vatniks.

Not Sponsored by Loreal in any way at all.  People listen more if you don't look like you are in Trainspotting.

[Genie]

7 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

It's the same as when he said Ukraine is using incendiary weapons after he'd dropped a shit ton of phosphorus onto civilian structures for months. No one gives a hoot about what Putin and his cronies is threatening with anymore.

A depleted uranium shell isn't a nuclear weapon, it's just a very dense material, also used in imaging machines in hospitals, for chemo therapy, as counter weights in aircraft etc. 

It’s just more fuel for the home audience, confirmed by us that we’re putting nuclear weapons on the battlefield.

It’s done, but I’d have just avoided it personally . 

[magnkarl]

6 minutes ago, Genie said:

It’s just more fuel for the home audience, confirmed by us that we’re putting nuclear weapons on the battlefield.

It’s done, but I’d have just avoided it personally . 

Do also note that it's the same day that Xi essentially forced Putin to sign a decree that he'd never start nuclear war. Let's just say that Putin isn't exactly a master communicator. They're even laughing about it on Russian TV.

[Chindie]

20 minutes ago, Genie said:

We know what they are, they know what they are… but Putin will (and has) state that the UK / Nato has brought nuclear weapons onto the battlefield. If Russia did the same it would be in retaliation and not them escalating things.

I think we should have just used regular ammunition and avoided this exchange.

Putin can state what he wants, it doesn't make it true. DU rounds aren't nuclear weapons.

They're armour piercing kinetic rounds. Putin knows they put his heavy weapons at greater risk. He doesn't want to have those in play. He doesn't get to make that choice.

[Mr_Dogg]

9 minutes ago, Genie said:

It’s just more fuel for the home audience, confirmed by us that we’re putting nuclear weapons on the battlefield.

It’s done, but I’d have just avoided it personally . 

It's standard equipment, not linked to nuclear weapons. Nobody can control the lies that Putin will spin.

[LondonLax]

10 hours ago, KentVillan said:

I mostly agree with the majority here, but where I concede a bit of ground to @villakram is that I’m really not convinced anymore that Ukraine has much of a prospect of reclaiming most of the Russian-controlled territory anymore.

Russia has had time to regroup, work out how to get round sanctions, and there is ambivalence or tacit support from countries like China, India, etc. which is enough to keep them ticking along.

Massive Russian losses in terms of “expendable” troops are now baked into their strategy, so can give the appearance that Ukraine is battering them into submission. Which is true if you care about human life; but less true if you are Vladimir Putin.

The Ukrainians do care about their own people, and while that is clearly a good thing, it also narrows the kinds of things they can do vs the Russian zombie approach.

At some point this is probably going to turn into a stalemate, if it hasn’t already, and then you are kind of left with no option but to reach a settlement which probably doesn’t mean returning the pre-2022 or pre-2014 borders.

The Ukrainian sovereignty frame is useful (and I agree with it) but it gets caught up in the fact that NATO has a huge influence on Ukrainian success, and also the reality that sovereignty is just an ideal. It means very little if you can’t exercise it.

I hope Ukraine rolls the Russians back, and I think that would be a good outcome, and wouldn’t trigger nuclear war or WWIII or whatever. But it seems like most likely outcome is a very unpopular and fractious negotiated settlement, with Russia controlling land that should be Ukraine’s. Most likely a Transnistria / Abkhazia / South Ossetia type situation.

I also think this ends with a negotiated settlement that neither side is particularly happy with.

However you can only negotiate successfully from a position of strength, and that means Ukraine needs western support to give it a viable negotiating position. 

We will see how Ukraine’s counter offensive gets on in a couple of months time. Perhaps once that has played out we will have a better idea of where the negotiations will begin. 

[Genie]

6 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Do also note that it's the same day that Xi essentially forced Putin to sign a decree that he'd never start nuclear war. Let's just say that Putin isn't exactly a master communicator. They're even laughing about it on Russian TV.

I would imagine whatever was signed says something like they won’t use nuclear weapons first which is probably why he has mentioned it. I don’t think he’ll be dusting off the big red button just yet (if ever).

What this does it starts an avoidable conversation about what these depleted uranium rounds are, and where the line is with regards to nuclear weapons. As I said, we should have just avoided it completely. 

[LondonLax]

Just now, Genie said:

I would imagine whatever was signed says something like they won’t use nuclear weapons first which is probably why he has mentioned it. I don’t think he’ll be dusting off the big red button just yet (if ever).

What this does it starts an avoidable conversation about what these depleted uranium rounds are, and where the line is with regards to nuclear weapons. As I said, we should have just avoided it completely. 

There is nothing ‘nuclear’ about depleted uranium. It has less radioactive isotope and emit less radiation than regular uranium that can be dug up from the ground, hence the term depleted.

[Mozzavfc]

Are the western tanks operational in Ukraine yet? I assumed they'd still be training up on them until the summer

[magnkarl]

2 minutes ago, Mozzavfc said:

Are the western tanks operational in Ukraine yet? I assumed they'd still be training up on them until the summer

The word on the ground is that we'll see the first Leopard 2s roll into Ukraine in about a week. Where and when they'll be used is anyone's guess. Norway recently flew 8 (claimed) into Ukraine, and Poland\Canada have likely already transferred theirs close to the border. It's only really a matter of training before they've got 1 tank brigade with Western tanks and APCs going. Observers at Polish training grounds are reporting 24/7 training going on.

I'm guessing Polohy > Berdyansk for the first push, but it's anyone's guess. Weather's been sunny and warm for about 2 weeks now, so the ground is starting to stiffen. 

[Genie]

7 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

There is nothing ‘nuclear’ about depleted uranium. It has less radioactive isotope and emit less radiation than regular uranium that can be dug up from the ground, hence the term depleted.

Yes, I understand all of that but it as I said it is radioactive and it allows Putin to push the message we’ve brought “nuclear” weapons to the battlefield. We know what they are and are not. 

He can potentially be justified (at home at least) it escalating things if he were to go in that direction, and imo we should have just avoided that in this particular conflict. 

[bickster]

4 minutes ago, Mozzavfc said:

Are the western tanks operational in Ukraine yet? I assumed they'd still be training up on them until the summer

I think quite a few few are now in Polish staging grounds. Not all of them by any means but I've seen numerous reports about that. Even one that Russian Spies were detained trying to obtain details of what was there

[bickster]

1 minute ago, Genie said:

Yes, I understand all of that but it as I said it is radioactive and it allows Putin to push the message we’ve brought “nuclear” weapons to the battlefield. We know what they are and are not. 

He can potentially be justified (at home at least) it escalating things if he were to go in that direction, and imo we should have just avoided that in this particular conflict. 

Maybe we Ukraine would be best advised not to install any granite worktops in their homes, just in case it upsets Vlad?