bickster Posted October 4, 2022 Moderator Share Posted October 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, Anthony said: Calm assessment of the nuclear threat. Very correct. One problem, Western media will do exactly the opposite of what they should and people will be fearful. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Footage now circulating of Ukrainian forces in Dudchany. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 24 minutes ago, avfc1982am said: Footage now circulating of Ukrainian forces in Dudchany. I wonder how long the Russians will 'fall back' in an orderly manner here before it turns into a rout like in Kharkiv oblast. Judging from Lyman it won't be many days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, magnkarl said: I wonder how long the Russians will 'fall back' in an orderly manner here before it turns into a rout like in Kharkiv oblast. Judging from Lyman it won't be many days. Sooner than you think?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amsterdam_Neil_D Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 12 minutes ago, avfc1982am said: Sooner than you think?! How do Russians interpret the saying " Draw a line in the sand" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 I think Russia's biggest problem and why they're now being pushed back everywhere is their defence lines have been so static for months. Now that Ukrainian forces have the resources, it's far easier to punch through weaker areas. In turn they are moving that quick Russians aren't having enough time to create new defence lines strong enough to withstand attacks. I think if Ukraine can maintain logistics, it will take something monumental for Russians to alter this momentum any time soon. I think a combination of Russia's inability to look after it's troops the last few months, being slow to mobilise the general population and Ukrainian resources are becoming the decisive factor in what's currently happening imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 4, 2022 Moderator Share Posted October 4, 2022 1 minute ago, avfc1982am said: I think Russia's biggest problem and why they're now being pushed back everywhere is their defence lines have been so static for months. Now that Ukrainian forces have the resources, it's far easier to punch through weaker areas. In turn they are moving that quick Russians aren't having enough time to create new defence lines strong enough to withstand attacks. I think if Ukraine can maintain logistics, it will take something monumental for Russians to alter this momentum any time soon. I think a combination of Russia's inability to look after it's troops the last few months, being slow to mobilise the general population and Ukrainian resources are becoming the decisive factor in what's currently happening imo. Already stories out there that the RUssians have been told to get ready to evacuate Svatove in Luhansk in three days time (which by now is two days), due to the terrain there it is considered by the Russians to be indefensible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, bickster said: Already stories out there that the RUssians have been told to get ready to evacuate Svatove in Luhansk in three days time (which by now is two days), due to the terrain there it is considered by the Russians to be indefensible 100%. If you look at the terrain east of the P66 its all hills. If Ukraine control these, they control Svatove and the surrounding land in the immediate east too. Them hills dominate the landscape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr_Dogg Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 This war is a real geography lesson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 4, 2022 Moderator Share Posted October 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, avfc1982am said: 100%. If you look at the terrain east of the P66 its all hills. If Ukraine control these, they control Svatove and the surrounding land in the immediate east too. Them hills dominate the landscape. Yes I was just looking myself, there is an entire line of settlements that are much the same all built in the lee of the same range of hills and that pattern is again repeated in a few places moving East again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pas5898 Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 14 minutes ago, avfc1982am said: I think a combination of Russia's inability to look after it's troops the last few months, being slow to mobilise the general population and Ukrainian resources are becoming the decisive factor in what's currently happening imo. Morale is a massive part of this. Russians aren't even sure why they are in this war, therefore far more likely to desert or retreat under conflict. Ukrainians will die for their land. Add in sophisticated weaponry for UA, it will take something huge for this momentum to change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 4, 2022 Moderator Share Posted October 4, 2022 Just now, pas5898 said: Morale is a massive part of this. Russians aren't even sure why they are in this war, therefore far more likely to desert or retreat under conflict. Ukrainians will die for their land. Add in sophisticated weaponry for UA, it will take something huge for this momentum to change The Ukraine surrender hotline has apparently been inundated with thousands of calls, some from troops on the frontline, some from the mobilized, some from people yet to be mobilised and some from parents of children already at the front 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 4, 2022 Moderator Share Posted October 4, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted October 4, 2022 Moderator Share Posted October 4, 2022 There are lots of settlement liberation videos from Kherson out there today, It really does seem like Ukraine has steamrollered right through from the North East. They already seem to have moved the front a flat 30km forwards Davidyov Brid is important however as its the furthest south I've seem yet (It's on a parallel with Mylove but inland) and it is also an important crossroads of multiple roads, One of which leads directly down to the massive (and massively important) Dam on the Dnipro river 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 19 minutes ago, bickster said: Really significant. Ukraine forces have been unable to take it for months. It's on the edge of the corridor in the east frontline in Kherson. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, bickster said: There are lots of settlement liberation videos from Kherson out there today, It really does seem like Ukraine has steamrollered right through from the North East. They already seem to have moved the front a flat 30km forwards Davidyov Brid is important however as its the furthest south I've seem yet (It's on a parallel with Mylove but inland) and it is also an important crossroads of multiple roads, One of which leads directly down to the massive (and massively important) Dam on the Dnipro river I think a lot of what is circulating implies this is what is happening. Ukraine need to squeeze the Kherson pocket all the way down to Beryslav and in range of Nova Kakovkha and the dam. If they can force that eastern corridor to join with the northern advance it's game over in Kherson for Russia. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Russia have got quite a few troops tied up in north kherson looking at the map... 205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 34th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 227th Artillery Brigade, 126th Separate Guards Coastal Defense Brigade, 140th Artillery Regiment, 10th Separate Special Purpose Brigade, 11th Separate Assault Brigade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 No sound on this however, this gives a good indication of why time is of the essence for Ukraine to advance. Notice the tank sliding due to the ground. Another couple of weeks and I can see these dirt tracks being unable to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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