Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Russia interest rates raised again. Its now 16%. 

Official inflation figures are 7.5 % although its thought to be much higher. 

A shortage of eggs has been caused by a shortage of spare parts for western built machinery. Russia is having to import eggs at sky high prices and sell them to the public at half the real price. 

Unemployment has never been lower. But that's because workers are leaving the country to avoid military service.  This shortage is being noticed as central heating systems fail and freeze solid because there are very few trained engineers to fix them or any spare parts. 

This is the biggest country on earth, with massive amounts of farmland, massive stocks of fossil fuels and land borders with 2 of the world's largest trading blocks. 

But on the positive side - they did manage to capture 0.05% of Ukraine in 2023 with the loss of only 100,000 men and 40% of the Black Sea fleet.  

Great job Putin.  He wanted to recreate the USSR.  He's well on the way to recreating its 1990 economy. 

 

[magnkarl]

Here's hoping that Iran tires of delivering UAVs to Russia when they've now got their own groups in both Yemen, Lebanon and Gaza in active conflict.

[LondonLax]

6 hours ago, magnkarl said:

Here's hoping that Iran tires of delivering UAVs to Russia when they've now got their own groups in both Yemen, Lebanon and Gaza in active conflict.

They gave Russia the blueprints to make their own. 

[villa89]

Hard to make your own when you can't get parts or the workers to build them. 

[NoelVilla]

26 minutes ago, villa89 said:

Hard to make your own when you can't get parts or the workers to build them. 

And that is not the only thing, the energy system can't keep up. Russia experiences severe collapses in heating. In Lipetsk, 282 homes left without heating in -30 degrees C.

Think Putin said that we were going to freeze this winter. 

[Panto_Villan]

Those are all fairly minor inconveniences in the grand scheme of things though. Iran and Cuba have shown you can survive decades and decades of sanctions, provided you’re willing to accept a fall in living standards - and Russians are no stranger to hard times.

Unfortunately Russia is a big country with a lot of raw resources it can dig up and sell to fund the war. As long as Putin keeps the army and police loyal he can keep this up forever imo. Their economy isn’t exactly running great, but they’re still out producing Ukraine and it’s allies militarily right now.

The West needs to step up military aid to Ukraine otherwise Russia is going to have endured a few years of hardship but still won the war (a smaller victory than he’d have liked, but a victory nonetheless).

Gotta hope Nikki Haley somehow beats Trump in the primaries and maybe 2024 will look a bit brighter!

[Mandy Lifeboats]

1 hour ago, Panto_Villan said:

Those are all fairly minor inconveniences in the grand scheme of things though. Iran and Cuba have shown you can survive decades and decades of sanctions, provided you’re willing to accept a fall in living standards - and Russians are no stranger to hard times.

Unfortunately Russia is a big country with a lot of raw resources it can dig up and sell to fund the war. As long as Putin keeps the army and police loyal he can keep this up forever imo. Their economy isn’t exactly running great, but they’re still out producing Ukraine and it’s allies militarily right now.

The West needs to step up military aid to Ukraine otherwise Russia is going to have endured a few years of hardship but still won the war (a smaller victory than he’d have liked, but a victory nonetheless).

The USSR was bigger than Russia.  It had more land, more resources, more people and more military allies.  

Do you see it on a map today?  

Russia isn't Cuba.  Cuba is tiny in comparison.  Its economy was propped up by the USSR and China. 

Russia isn't Iran or North Korea.  Its population can still flee the country with ease.  

Russia is.....a tiny bit of the USSR.

Sanctions work.  They don't stop imorts or prevent exports.  They make imports very expensive and exports dirt cheap.  

That's why the ruble is now worth 100 to the £ when it was only 33 to the £ a decade ago.  The UK was hardly an economic success story in the last decade.  

 

 

 

 

[Panto_Villan]

17 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

The USSR was bigger than Russia.  It had more land, more resources, more people and more military allies.  

Do you see it on a map today?  

Russia isn't Cuba.  Cuba is tiny in comparison.  Its economy was propped up by the USSR and China. 

Russia isn't Iran or North Korea.  Its population can still flee the country with ease.  

Russia is.....a tiny bit of the USSR.

Sanctions work.  They don't stop imorts or prevent exports.  They make imports very expensive and exports dirt cheap.  

That's why the ruble is now worth 100 to the £ when it was only 33 to the £ a decade ago.  The UK was hardly an economic success story in the last decade.  

The USSR famously let up on repression and started to open up before it collapsed. That’s why it’s not on the map any more, whereas Iran and Russia are still around. Same as Maduro over in Venezuela.

Control the army and police and you stay in power, sanctions or not. There’s no serious political rival to Putin on the scene for discontent to unite behind either. If one emerges it would certainly change the calculation, but there isn’t one who poses any threat.

Yes, of course sanctions work - the Russian economy and war effort would clearly be performing much better without them. But they’re not going to cause regime change, or stop the war. They’re not THAT effective.

Edited January 13 by Panto_Villan

[Mandy Lifeboats]

20 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

The USSR famously let up on repression and started to open up before it collapsed. 

The USSR let up on repression and started to open up BECAUSE it was on the verge of collapse.  

It was on the verge of collapse because of the sanctions. 

The USSR never hid the better living standards of the West from  their population.  But they portrayed the western lifestyle as being the lifestyle of a few. The majority were portrayed as being drug addicts, living in poverty. 

Russia isn't going to be able to do the same. 

 

 

[Panto_Villan]

15 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

The USSR let up on repression and started to open up BECAUSE it was on the verge of collapse.  

It was on the verge of collapse because of the sanctions. 

The USSR never hid the better living standards of the West from  their population.  But they portrayed the western lifestyle as being the lifestyle of a few. The majority were portrayed as being drug addicts, living in poverty. 

Russia isn't going to be able to do the same. 

That's not true imo. But it's apples and oranges anyway; sanctions and political repression clearly have a negative effect and while that might have held the USSR back from being the world's leading superpower, those same disadvantages won't necessarily handicap Russia enough to stop them acheiving their lesser goal of being a regional power. They're far larger than the neighbours they want to bully, and their economy is mostly based on digging stuff out the ground and selling it which is less vulnerable to sanctions than more complex supply chains are.

People have been saying since the war began that Putin was about to fall because Russians just wouldn't accept the falling living standards or the heavy-handed repression or the enormous numbers of casualties or the forced mobilisations or the loss of access to the West, etc. None of it has happened. Russia is in a stronger position now than it has been at any time since the start of the war. Probably because everyone has just been sitting back and waiting for them to collapse rather than taking the threat of a long drawn-out war seriously.

[bickster]

1 hour ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

That's why the ruble is now worth 100 to the £

Ironically, that’s the rate I was getting on the black market in a basement nightclub in Leningrad University in 1989

[limpid]

12 hours ago, Panto_Villan said:

People have been saying since the war began that Putin was about to fall because Russians just wouldn't accept the falling living standards or the heavy-handed repression or the enormous numbers of casualties or the forced mobilisations or the loss of access to the West, etc. None of it has happened. Russia is in a stronger position now than it has been at any time since the start of the war. Probably because everyone has just been sitting back and waiting for them to collapse rather than taking the threat of a long drawn-out war seriously.

Who are these "people" and why is what they think about this significant? People are allowed to change their minds as new information becomes available.

[Panto_Villan]

1 hour ago, limpid said:

Who are these "people" and why is what they think about this significant? People are allowed to change their minds as new information becomes available.

Yeah, but they’re not. Lots of people (myself included) underestimated the stability of the Russian state at the start of the war, but some posters in this thread don’t seem to have updated their views since then.

[limpid]

11 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

Yeah, but they’re not. Lots of people (myself included) underestimated the stability of the Russian state at the start of the war, but some posters in this thread don’t seem to have updated their views since then.

I suspect that kike on most online platforms, there are a number of people who form their opinions based on a headline they read or heard and run with it. It's why I often challenge "they say" type comments.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

I find it very hard to reconcile statements like "Russia is stronger now than at any time during the war" with reality.  

The Russian exchange rate has been stabilised by spending high amounts of foreign currency reserves and compelling big business to convert foreign currency reserves into rubles.  The ruble is still the worst performing currency in the world. 

The economy is OK.  The unemployment rate has been helped by slaughtering the unemployed. Spending on prisons has reduced by slaughtering the inmates.  Russia stole western assets and/or compelled businesses to sell their assets for a tiny percentage of the true value. 

All of these measures are very "one off" measures.   

Russia has lost 40% of its Black Sea fleet, expended 90% of its armoured reserves and has lost billions worth of aircraft. 

The Russian border with NATO has increased massively and its all undefended.  Ukraine is better armed than ever before and the whole of Crimea is under fire.  The Baltic Sea is now completely surrounded. St Petersburg is within shell range of NATO borders. Murmansk is supplied by 1 road and 1 rail track which runs along the Finish border. 

NATO has expended a lot of its surplus stores. But its modern weapons haven't entered the fray.  Russia will not be capable of opposition NATO for a decade. 

Russia has drawn many red lines that would supposedly prompt unprecedented action.  NATO have stepped over all of them.  Who can forget Putin's threat of "Immediate action never seen before in history if anyone hindered the SMO". Despite our cruise missiles destroying Russian warships the worst consequence I can see is that we had to host Eurovision. 

In summary  - Russia's not stronger than 2 years ago.  Its just reached a military stalemate and hasn't collapsed economically.  Its weaker financially, militarily and strategically.

 

[sidcow]

I've not heard anyone say Putin is about to topple in ages, probably over a year. 

[Panto_Villan]

25 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

I find it very hard to reconcile statements like "Russia is stronger now than at any time during the war" with reality.  

The Russian exchange rate has been stabilised by spending high amounts of foreign currency reserves and compelling big business to convert foreign currency reserves into rubles.  The ruble is still the worst performing currency in the world. 

The economy is OK.  The unemployment rate has been helped by slaughtering the unemployed. Spending on prisons has reduced by slaughtering the inmates.  Russia stole western assets and/or compelled businesses to sell their assets for a tiny percentage of the true value. 

All of these measures are very "one off" measures.   

Russia has lost 40% of its Black Sea fleet, expended 90% of its armoured reserves and has lost billions worth of aircraft. 

The Russian border with NATO has increased massively and its all undefended.  Ukraine is better armed than ever before and the whole of Crimea is under fire.  The Baltic Sea is now completely surrounded. St Petersburg is within shell range of NATO borders. Murmansk is supplied by 1 road and 1 rail track which runs along the Finish border. 

NATO has expended a lot of its surplus stores. But its modern weapons haven't entered the fray.  Russia will not be capable of opposition NATO for a decade. 

Russia has drawn many red lines that would supposedly prompt unprecedented action.  NATO have stepped over all of them.  Who can forget Putin's threat of "Immediate action never seen before in history if anyone hindered the SMO". Despite our cruise missiles destroying Russian warships the worst consequence I can see is that we had to host Eurovision. 

In summary  - Russia's not stronger than 2 years ago.  Its just reached a military stalemate and hasn't collapsed economically.  Its weaker financially, militarily and strategically.

 

Yeah. Fair point. I guess I should have been a little clearer there - I’m referring purely to Ukraine here when I say they are stronger than ever. Western aid is becoming ever less generous (US aid has now ended entirely) and the Russians are slowly ramping up their war economy, and eventually Ukraine is going to fold if the current trends continue.

And if Russia does win the war, suddenly the calculus changes, right?

Russia never had any intention of fighting NATO directly or invading the Nordics, so I’m sure they’d happy trade NATO enlargement for control over Ukraine. I’m sure Putin’s also perfectly happy to weather the economic damage if it means they win the war.

If the West lets Putin win, this war becomes a strategic defeat for us and not him. Being able to take territory just means being willing to suffer enough deaths and economic disruption until the West gets distracted and divided.

Edited January 14 by Panto_Villan

[chrisp65]

If Russia only has 10% of its armoured reserves left, perhaps we should just have a little push, mop up that last 10% and Vlad’s your uncle.

[limpid]

49 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

If Russia only has 10% of its armoured reserves left, perhaps we should just have a little push, mop up that last 10% and Vlad’s your uncle.

If it's even near that, he'll be having to remove forces existing from the borders and puppet states. I'd be surprised if there is much left on the European borders as he knows NATO won't attack unless he makes the first move. I winder if he trusts China as much?

[Mandy Lifeboats]

44 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

If Russia only has 10% of its armoured reserves left, perhaps we should just have a little push, mop up that last 10% and Vlad’s your uncle.

Ah.......we he have a misunderstanding. 

Russia had a large amount of tanks and armoured vehicles in storage.  That reserve has fallen by 90% as they have replaced vehicles that were in service. 

That's very different to only have 10% of its tanks left. 

A lot of that reserve are immobile and being used as pillboxes or are without their main gun and are being used as mobile machine gun platforms.  Much of the reserve stock have been cannibalised for spares.  

India still hasn't received tanks it returned for servicing before the war began.