Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Genie]

27 minutes ago, villa89 said:

I think the problem is that you can't get any reliable information about Russia or China or any other dictatorship. So it's not possible for the media here to tell us the truth about Russia because nobody knows.

I don’t think it’s that tbh. We’re constant fed  stories that Russia are collapsing and that Ukraine are making great strides which neither seem to be that accurate.

I realise accurate information about things like deaths or the Russian economy are very hard to come by though.

Edited December 7, 2023 by Genie

[sidcow]

18 minutes ago, Genie said:

I don’t think it’s that tbh. We’re constant fed  stories that Russia are collapsing and that Ukraine are making great strides which neither seem to be that accurate.

I realise accurate information about things like deaths or the Russian economy are very hard to come by though.

 

I don't think the mainstream media have been constantly reporting stories that Russia are collapsing and that Ukraine are making great strides. 

I think your getting confused between say BBC reports and @magnkarl getting a bit overexcited at times.

Mainstream media mainly report that Ukraine have made modest gains and are trying to establish a foothold on the east side of the river.  I've not seen any mainstream media reports suggesting Russia are on the verge of collapse.

[Genie]

Telegraph: Satellite images reveal Russia is running out of tanks

Newsweek: Russia Running Out of Pretty Much Everything as Sanctions Bite

Gov.uk: Increasingly desperate Russian leaders are running out of ideas

SkyNews: Russia running out of weapons as it faces 'staggering' numbers of casualties, spy chief says

Theres hundreds of these type of stories talking about Russia being on the brink. 

[blandy]

8 minutes ago, Genie said:

Telegraph: Satellite images reveal Russia is running out of tanks

Newsweek: Russia Running Out of Pretty Much Everything as Sanctions Bite

Gov.uk: Increasingly desperate Russian leaders are running out of ideas

SkyNews: Russia running out of weapons as it faces 'staggering' numbers of casualties, spy chief says

Theres hundreds of these type of stories talking about Russia being on the brink. 

None of them actually say what the headlines suggest.

[chrisp65]

42 minutes ago, blandy said:

None of them actually say what the headlines suggest.

Well I tapped on one of those, the government briefing link.

It’s exactly as the headline would suggest, and its public information out out by the government.

Quote

Madam Chair, this is a devastating war of Russian incompetence which has brought death and destruction to Ukraine and horrendous losses to the Russian people. Since the beginning of the invasion it has been clear this has not been a display of great Russian military might. Instead, Russian military commanders have delivered a poorly trained, poorly equipped and poorly led force which needed to be supplemented by mercenaries and convicts almost immediately. Morale is low, supplies are low, and increasingly desperate Russian decision makers are running out of ideas.

In contrast, Ukraine has turned the tide in this war, regaining territory and liberating thousands of Ukrainian people. Ukraine has done this thanks to the awe-inspiring bravery of the Ukrainian Armed Forces

I’m really not sure there are two ways of interpreting that?

[blandy]

32 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Well I tapped on one of those, the government briefing link.

It’s exactly as the headline would suggest, and its public information out out by the government.

I’m really not sure there are two ways of interpreting that?

Fair cop guv. Slightly bad wording on my part. They don’t say that which Dave reckoned was the case

1 hour ago, Genie said:

about Russia being on the brink. [&]  that Russia are collapsing and that Ukraine are making great strides

They do of course portray Russia as having problems (as does Ukraine).

Edited December 7, 2023 by blandy
Effed up format and added text

[chrisp65]

C’mon.

That really is dancing on the head of a pin.

[blandy]

Just now, chrisp65 said:

C’mon.

That really is dancing on the head of a pin.

If you think so. Maybe because I haven’t remotely changed my mind that neither side can win, I see stories that Russia has this problem or this weakness as, well, exactly that. Similar applies to Ukraine - summer advance is stagnant, promised materiel not yet available, no air cover, big losses in the areas of fierce fighting, haven’t got electricity in various places…

Its just (to me) coverage on a day of a small part of a bigger picture, rather than any kind of “collapsing” being imminent.

[maqroll]

Looks like Putin has finally murdered Navalny. Sad news.

[villa89]

13 hours ago, maqroll said:

Looks like Putin has finally murdered Navalny. Sad news.

I don't think Navalny was the saviour people made him out to be, he would have ended up being another Putin in the long run. However he did represent at least some opposition or idea of an opposition. 

In other news Ukraine are probably getting the message that even if they manage to get this $60b aid package from the US the aid will be drying up soon. It's an election year and Ukraine isn't going to win you any votes. 

[Xann]

Putin's forces are continuing to make advances utilising meatwaves. Their losses are crazy.

Ukraine is short of shells to repel the attacks, whilst Europe bickers over the details of supply.

 

The overall picture is that surveillance is such that both sides can be seen mustering for meaningful attacks by the opposition.

Countermeasures happen before they hit the battlefield.

As it stands, for Ukraine to advance with anything like 'acceptable' losses they will need sustained heavy shelling to keep the invaders' heads down, as they attempt to cross defense lines.

Ukraine aren't getting enough shells and other support to hold the lines, let alone mount that sort of operation.

[Panto_Villan]

Yeah. The unfortunate truth is that Russia has slowly and inefficiently set up a war economy, whereas the West hasn’t bothered. If the West (and Europe in particular) doesn’t get serious about manufacturing munitions then Ukraine is going to lose eventually.

[villa89]

16 hours ago, Panto_Villan said:

Yeah. The unfortunate truth is that Russia has slowly and inefficiently set up a war economy, whereas the West hasn’t bothered. If the West (and Europe in particular) doesn’t get serious about manufacturing munitions then Ukraine is going to lose eventually.

The west also ignoring Russia's expansion into Georgia and construction of a new naval base on the Black sea. No doubt the Chinese are watching on seeing how they can do the same. 

Sanctions aren't the answer. Didn't work with Iran won't work now. 

Edited December 14, 2023 by villa89

[chrisp65]

I think this is getting quite expensive and quite tiresome.

We should cut our losses, frame it in some way whereby we can say we won.

Then quickly move on to having a dabble in the next thing.

All the right companies have made a shit ton of money over the last couple of years, we’ve drip fed munitions to string it out to this point of stalemate, we’ve helped the bottom line on our defence industry contacts. Some of us have had photo opportunities. A couple more countries have joined NATO.

Fuel prices have permanently risen which makes new drilling more viable.

We’ve shown Putin exactly who he’s messing with, he knows he lost, he won’t be dicking with us again.

Job’s a good un, what’s next on the agenda?

 

 

[Genie]

6 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

I think this is getting quite expensive and quite tiresome.

We should cut our losses, frame it in some way whereby we can say we won.

Then quickly move on to having a dabble in the next thing.

All the right companies have made a shit ton of money over the last couple of years, we’ve drip fed munitions to string it out to this point of stalemate, we’ve helped the bottom line on our defence industry contacts. Some of us have had photo opportunities. A couple more countries have joined NATO.

Fuel prices have permanently risen which makes new drilling more viable.

We’ve shown Putin exactly who he’s messing with, he knows he lost, he won’t be dicking with us again.

Job’s a good un, what’s next on the agenda?

 

 

It would be stupid to give up now with Russia on the brink of collapse and Ukraine making huge advances. 

[Xann]

21 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

All the right companies have made a shit ton of money over the last couple of years, we’ve drip fed munitions to string it out to this point of stalemate, we’ve helped the bottom line on our defence industry contacts. Some of us have had photo opportunities. A couple more countries have joined NATO.

I'm sure there must have been companies that didn't withdraw from Russia, that profited from the vacuum left by their competitors that considered Putin's stance to be untenable.

Payouts for scum.

Nothing's going to get better soon. People are f***ing stupid.

[Chindie]

Russia isn't on the brink of collapse.

Ukraine can't 'win' this war, their position was always just to make Russia winning it so difficult and expensive that they give up, and hopefully in the effort push back and reclaim the land they'd lost over the past decade.

Unfortunately for them to do that they need exceptional amounts of support from the West and that support is wobbling with a US election that isn't going to be won on Ukraine and Europe all tiring of the economic blowback the war causes and the lack of tangible short term benefits for the effort.

Eventually Ukraine will be forced to accept a loss. The question of where the loss lies is all that's being waited on.

[Genie]

5 minutes ago, Chindie said:

Russia isn't on the brink of collapse.

100%, I was just being sarcastic as we’re fed that the turning of the tide is always imminent.

[Panto_Villan]

5 hours ago, villa89 said:

The west also ignoring Russia's expansion into Georgia and construction of a new naval base on the Black sea. No doubt the Chinese are watching on seeing how they can do the same. 

Sanctions aren't the answer. Didn't work with Iran won't work now. 

Indeed. And it’s particularly frustrating because we don’t even need to do any fighting to achieve our goals - just build enough gear for the people who are willing to do it. We’re literally never going to have a better opportunity.

[Panto_Villan]

4 hours ago, Chindie said:

Russia isn't on the brink of collapse.

Ukraine can't 'win' this war, their position was always just to make Russia winning it so difficult and expensive that they give up, and hopefully in the effort push back and reclaim the land they'd lost over the past decade.

Unfortunately for them to do that they need exceptional amounts of support from the West and that support is wobbling with a US election that isn't going to be won on Ukraine and Europe all tiring of the economic blowback the war causes and the lack of tangible short term benefits for the effort.

Eventually Ukraine will be forced to accept a loss. The question of where the loss lies is all that's being waited on.

That’s not really true - unless you define pushing Russia out of all the occupied territories as not being a victory, because it’s just reclaiming land they already owned 10 years ago.

If Ukraine had cast iron support from Europe and the US in terms of arms and munitions, then that’s a plausible scenario. Ultimately Russia cares less about that territory than Ukraine does, and eventually there comes a point where one side will decide it’s not worth the bloodshed.

The problem is there’s a very obvious path to victory on the table for Russia right now - just wait for the Western coalition to fall apart. But that’s something the West could take away. Even Europe could do it alone if it really wanted to - Russia has the GDP of Italy. If that was taken away Ukraine becomes far more likely to win the war than Russia imo.