Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[bickster]

4 minutes ago, Genie said:

I think Putin would consider a deal with the USA which makes his life easier slightly differently to a deal with a single man who humiliated him.

Why would Putin even consider a deal with the US? Right now he's thinking he'll have his Orange Stooge back before long.

[Genie]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

Why would Putin even consider a deal with the US? Right now he's thinking he'll have his Orange Stooge back before long.

Then what?

If Trump gets in (massive IF) Putin isn’t going to be allowed to progress East towards Europe. In fact I think Trump is even more likely to publicly announce a deal with Putin which 1) avoids the risk of Russia taking more land and 2) avoids billions of military aid going to Ukraine.

If the US reduce their outlay on this war it’s because they think the risk is low, not because they aren’t bothered about Russia taking more of Ukraine.

[Panto_Villan]

1 hour ago, Genie said:

Then what?

If Trump gets in (massive IF) Putin isn’t going to be allowed to progress East towards Europe. In fact I think Trump is even more likely to publicly announce a deal with Putin which 1) avoids the risk of Russia taking more land and 2) avoids billions of military aid going to Ukraine.

If the US reduce their outlay on this war it’s because they think the risk is low, not because they aren’t bothered about Russia taking more of Ukraine.

Trump doesn’t base his foreign policy on logic though. He could do literally anything once he took power, and there’s a fair chance he’d give Putin everything he asked for just to poke the democrats in the eye imo.

It’s certainly Putin’s best hope of getting a good result out of the war. Ukraine is already turning into a political wedge issue in various places and with the counteroffensive going nowhere fast he’s probably feeling happier about the way the war is going than any time in the past.

There’s also some quite troubling reports that Russia is finally sorting out their problems with the productions of FPV kamikaze drones, and training for their mobilised soldiers. And the west isn’t ramping artillery shell production as fast as we should be, so Russia may have the upper hand on that front next year too.

It’s frustrating because a politically united West prepared to devote a relatively small amount of our defence spending to munitions production should be able to make this war a formality for the Ukrainians. But obviously that’s not what’s actually happening.

Edited October 8, 2023 by Panto_Villan

[Xann]

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

 

[magnkarl]

Russia have now been geo-validated to have lost 100(!) armoured vehicles (tanks, ifvs) in one day around Avdiivka, trying to storm pre-dug positions with several thousand men, racing motorbikes, tanks, ladas, you name it. 

Stalin, is that you?

[Mandy Lifeboats]

31 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Russia have now been geo-validated to have lost 100(!) armoured vehicles (tanks, ifvs) in one day around Avdiivka, trying to storm pre-dug positions with several thousand men, racing motorbikes, tanks, ladas, you name it. 

Stalin, is that you?

In other good news......

Earleir this week the ruble hit that psychologically significant level of 100 to the dollar. 

Putin publicly admitted for the first time that the plunging ruble was a significant problem. 

It's now recovered to 96 to the dollar based upon some verbal promises made by the Russian Central Bank. 

Those promises include a significant increase in interest rates.  They are already at 13%. 

 

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

Well he’ll certainly be pleased to learn that ‘for as long as it takes’ has been publicly reduced to ‘as long as we can’  

 

 

[sidcow]

8 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

Well he’ll certainly be pleased to learn that ‘for as long as it takes’ has been publicly reduced to ‘as long as we can’  

 

 

Yeah, I was thinking this.

It's almost disappeared from regular news channels other than about funding.  Public interest must have waned so it's only a matter of time before political interest wanes.

There will definitely be a settlement in the next year or so as Ukraine just won't get the support it needs to keep it up.

[Genie]

Whilst the risk of Russia going to war with Europe has reduced significantly the US won’t keep throwing billions at it. 

They can always reverse that decision if/when the risk increases.

[pas5898]

58 minutes ago, Genie said:

Whilst the risk of Russia going to war with Europe has reduced significantly the US won’t keep throwing billions at it. 

They can always reverse that decision if/when the risk increases.

America has a new way to feed their money machine (middle east security).

Ukraine will quickly go onto the backburner - watch the rhetoric change in the coming months.

Edited October 12, 2023 by pas5898

[chrisp65]

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

 

[Xann]

 

[peterw]

There is the chance that a Trump presidency may benefit Ukraine. A small chance admittedly. trump cares for no-one other than a legacy for himself and having to gain adoration. His folly with Kim Jong On was based wholly on him receiving accolades and (Nobel) prizes for saving the world from itself. Hs narcissistic tendencies have played themselves out over the past few years and I see any involvement with Russia through the same lens. He said he'd be able to end the war in 24 hours but that doesn't necessarily mean he'd give in to russia. He's a businessman first and foremost and he looks at everything like a business deal - he doesn't fully get international relations but he may be as best placed as anyone to see what deal may be acceptable. 

You may argue, and it would be valid, that why would anyone come to the table when nothing new is being offered, however this is the President of the US and carries a lot more sway than anyone else that has entered the talks on the future. There is a deal to be done and I think the it is on Crimea. Ukraine may have to renounce all claims to the territory for Russia to withdraw. There will also probably be some level of autonomy for Donbass. Ukraine may not like it, and as Russia does not hold all of that territory it cannot claim it as being Russian either. No NATO expansion into Ukraine may also need to be agreed, although EU accession also need to be accepted by Russia.

The starting point needs to be the end of hostilities and Russian withdrawal, although that is unlikely. The end point is how much Zelenskiy thinks he can continue fighting, and by that stage does he think he'll have a better hand to bargain with then, or now.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

On 12/10/2023 at 08:10, Mandy Lifeboats said:

In other good news......

Earleir this week the ruble hit that psychologically significant level of 100 to the dollar. 

Putin publicly admitted for the first time that the plunging ruble was a significant problem. 

It's now recovered to 96 to the dollar based upon some verbal promises made by the Russian Central Bank. 

Those promises include a significant increase in interest rates.  They are already at 13%. 

 

Some of the the measures I mentioned above have been implemented.  

Any company that holds foreign currency must deposit 80% of their holdings with a Russian Bank.  

Any company that earns foreign currency must exchange 90% of those earnings into rubles with a Russian Bank at an  "official" exchange rate. 

Wow!   That will give the Russian Government the foreign currency they need in the short term. But it's a real killer for any Russian company that exports.  

 

 

 

 

[luckyeddie]

2 hours ago, peterw said:

There is the chance that a Trump presidency may benefit Ukraine. A small chance admittedly. trump cares for no-one other than a legacy for himself and having to gain adoration. His folly with Kim Jong On was based wholly on him receiving accolades and (Nobel) prizes for saving the world from itself. Hs narcissistic tendencies have played themselves out over the past few years and I see any involvement with Russia through the same lens. He said he'd be able to end the war in 24 hours but that doesn't necessarily mean he'd give in to russia. He's a businessman first and foremost and he looks at everything like a business deal - he doesn't fully get international relations but he may be as best placed as anyone to see what deal may be acceptable. 

You may argue, and it would be valid, that why would anyone come to the table when nothing new is being offered, however this is the President of the US and carries a lot more sway than anyone else that has entered the talks on the future. There is a deal to be done and I think the it is on Crimea. Ukraine may have to renounce all claims to the territory for Russia to withdraw. There will also probably be some level of autonomy for Donbass. Ukraine may not like it, and as Russia does not hold all of that territory it cannot claim it as being Russian either. No NATO expansion into Ukraine may also need to be agreed, although EU accession also need to be accepted by Russia.

The starting point needs to be the end of hostilities and Russian withdrawal, although that is unlikely. The end point is how much Zelenskiy thinks he can continue fighting, and by that stage does he think he'll have a better hand to bargain with then, or now.

He may claim to be a businessman but he is just a low IQ son of a billionaire. He inherited so much wealth it is almost impossible for him not to succeed, but he is having a good go at that. His father was a self made businessman, and is responsible for turning DJT into the man he is.

[Xann]

In other news, the showpiece land grab around Avdiivka has ended in a Russian bodybag crisis.

 

Edited October 16, 2023 by Xann

[villa89]

10 hours ago, Xann said:

In other news, the showpiece land grab around Avdiivka has ended in a Russian bodybag crisis.

 

When are they going to run out of prisoners to send to their death? 

[Xann]

44 minutes ago, villa89 said:

When are they going to run out of prisoners to send to their death? 

It'll maybe be more unfortunates from the sticks if they start running low?

Life is cheap, and Putin's not fussy.