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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


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A flagship Russian long-range bomber has been destroyed in a Ukrainian drone strike, according to reports.

Images posted on social media and analysed by BBC Verify show a Tupolev Tu-22 on fire at Soltsy-2 airbase, south of St Petersburg.

Moscow said that a drone was hit by small-arms fire but managed to "damage" a plane. Ukraine has not commented.

The Tu-22 can travel at twice the speed of sound and has been used extensively by Russia to attack cities in Ukraine.

The Russian Ministry of Defence said in a statement that an attack by a "copter-type UAV" took place at around 10:00 Moscow time (08:00 BST). 

It stated the location as "a military airfield in the Novgorod region", where Soltsy-2 is situated.

"The UAV was detected by the airfield's observation outpost and was hit with small-arms fire," the ministry said.

"One airplane was damaged; there were no casualties as a result of the terrorist act."

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5 hours ago, bickster said:

Reports out there of a fairly big breakthrough by Ukrainian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region (roughly about 5 or 6 hours ago). Obviously unconfirmed at this stage

My few contacts with a stake in this do seem awfully chirpy tonight, so I’m wondering if there might be some meat to this.

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5 hours ago, bickster said:

Reports out there of a fairly big breakthrough by Ukrainian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region (roughly about 5 or 6 hours ago). Obviously unconfirmed at this stage

What could this mean for the big picture?

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There has been a lot of talk about the capture of Robotyne and lands to the east between Robotyne and Verbove but this still only represents the ‘pre-defences’ of the Russian prepared defence.

As far as I am aware Ukraine has not make contact with the first line of prepared defences of the so called ‘Surovkin Line’ at any location. 

The closest they have gotten to it that I can find is the advance towards Staromlynlivka. 

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So long term the plan is to plod along until they get air superiority provided by F-16's. Once that happens we might see some more advances by Ukraine next year. Problem is that in the meantime Russia will also increase production of weapons/planes and dig in even more in the areas they control. 

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3 hours ago, villa89 said:

So long term the plan is to plod along until they get air superiority provided by F-16's. Once that happens we might see some more advances by Ukraine next year. Problem is that in the meantime Russia will also increase production of weapons/planes and dig in even more in the areas they control. 

I doubt Ukraine will get air superiority or even try. There are plenty of F16.  But there aren't many Ukrainian pilots who can fly them.  

It will force Russia to add another defensive tier to protect their helicopters and transport planes from attack.  That's a massive undertaking for the Russian airforce.  

 

Edited by Mandy Lifeboats
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33 minutes ago, bickster said:

More on the attack on the airfield and the TU-22 long range bomber. That really will have put the shits up Russia, so far from the Ukraine border and most likely launched from inside Russia

But aren't all the random "fires" started by Ukrainian special forces operating inside Russia? I'm sure Russia knows Ukraine have people inside Russia doing sabotage. 

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12 minutes ago, villa89 said:

But aren't all the random "fires" started by Ukrainian special forces operating inside Russia? I'm sure Russia knows Ukraine have people inside Russia doing sabotage. 

It could be special forces.  But its more likely to be ordinary Ukrainians who have been living in Russia for many years.  

There' about 5 million Ukrainians in Russia.  

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13 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

It could be special forces.  But its more likely to be ordinary Ukrainians who have been living in Russia for many years.  

I doubt normal Ukrainians have the capability to get a bomb drone airborne or target specific military bases/FSB offices/warplanes. 

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36 minutes ago, villa89 said:

I doubt normal Ukrainians have the capability to get a bomb drone airborne or target specific military bases/FSB offices/warplanes. 

I think you are wrong.  

Drones aren't expensive.  Improvised expolsive devices can be created.  A petrol bomb can destroy a plane.  

Military bases, offices and factories have cleaners, cooks, electricians etc.  It's feasible that some of these fires have been inside jobs. 

This is a fascinating listen.  It's NOT a guide on making bombs.  It's a guide on how easy sabotage can be. 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

I doubt Ukraine will get air superiority or even try. There are plenty of F16.  But there aren't many Ukrainian pilits who can fly them.  

It will force Russia to add another defensive tier to protect their helicopters and transport planes from attack.  That's a massive undertaking for the Russian airforce. 

Yes, plus the F-16s will mean that Russia will not so easily be able to use aircraft to attack UA ground forces in areas of the front line. Ukraine won't gain air superiority as you say, but will reduce Russia's advantage (though they don't have it either).

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Putin is on good form, addressing the Brics summit in South Africa (via video link due to the risk of arrest) he said the invasion of Ukraine was to put an end to the war which was unleashed by the West on the people of Donbas.

I would love to see the faces of the people in the room when he said that.

 

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