Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Mr_Dogg]

Will this counteroffensive have a target to reach it and then reassess and re-evaluate? Or will they keep pushing?

[Mandy Lifeboats]

6 minutes ago, Mr_Dogg said:

Will this counteroffensive have a target to reach it and then reassess and re-evaluate? Or will they keep pushing?

Both.  
 

The ultimate target will be to hit the coastline and the Russian border.  

In order to do that certain towns, cities or  terrains will have been identified as targets. 

But the state of the Russian military is a major factor.  We could easily see complete routs in some areas.  

There will be massive setbacks.  But there will also be massive opportunities. 

[avfc1982am]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

ISW thread, worthy of a quick read

 

Quite interesting further down in that thread more news of other dams being blown by Russians

 

[LondonLax]

44 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

Quite interesting further down in that thread more news of other dams being blown by Russians

 

I can’t work out where these dams are meant to be. When I look on Gmaps it’s just some small villages in fields. 

[KentVillan]

5 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

I can’t work out where these dams are meant to be. When I look on Gmaps it’s just some small villages in fields. 

Well dams aren’t usually in the middle of cities

[blandy]

9 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

Well dams aren’t usually in the middle of cities

Amsterdam and Rotterdam, though to be fair that’s at the end 

[bickster]

32 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

I can’t work out where these dams are meant to be. When I look on Gmaps it’s just some small villages in fields. 

There are likely more than one village with those names, even in the same Region, I've found a potential one for the first and last listed places, but Chornozemne was the second one I found in the Zap Region and not the one in the Yakmivka District the untranslated caption on the photo states

[magnkarl]

Russian war crimes keep piling up, willfully destroying civilian infrastructure is another one they'll argue about in the UN and then do absolutely nothing about. How long can China and India be 'neutral' in a conflict that is now ruining the environment of which they are getting majorly hit atm (46 degree heatwave in China)?

[LondonLax]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

There are likely more than one village with those names, even in the same Region, I've found a potential one for the first and last listed places, but Chornozemne was the second one I found in the Zap Region and not the one in the Yakmivka District the untranslated caption on the photo states

At location 46.73471, 34.84972 is roughly the mid point between three villages with those names. There is a lake about 10km north of there at a village called Ozerne, though it’s not in the same region but it must be what is being referred to. 

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

At location 46.73471, 34.84972 is roughly the mid point between three villages with those names. There is a lake about 10km north of there at a village called Ozerne, though it’s not in the same region but it must be what is being referred to. 

The tweet states three different dams, the one for V’iazivka is the one just north of that village you've given the Lat Longs for

But there is also a different Chornozemne in Zap but at 47.36130281897526, 35.47303085071507 which does have a large body of water

There is also a different Peremozhne in Zap at 47.43162016853428, 35.52804827693406 which again has a body of water

 

[sidcow]

1 hour ago, magnkarl said:

Russian war crimes keep piling up, willfully destroying civilian infrastructure is another one they'll argue about in the UN and then do absolutely nothing about. How long can China and India be 'neutral' in a conflict that is now ruining the environment of which they are getting majorly hit atm (46 degree heatwave in China)?

I was wondering the other day how much co2 this has released into the atmosphere. All those highly polluting tanks and other military vehicles. Aircraft and missile fuel. Explosions and subsequent fire.  Ships steaming all over the place.  Trees and other vegetation a d crops destroyed. 

It must have put one hell of a dent in global targets to reduce co2 

[ender4]

2 hours ago, sidcow said:

I was wondering the other day how much co2 this has released into the atmosphere. All those highly polluting tanks and other military vehicles. Aircraft and missile fuel. Explosions and subsequent fire.  Ships steaming all over the place.  Trees and other vegetation a d crops destroyed. 

It must have put one hell of a dent in global targets to reduce co2 

Though on the other hand the whole of Western Europe have reduced their demand for gas (estimated by 10%) and they are massively pivoting to renewables at record speed. So overall, the long-term climate effect might be net positive.

[sidcow]

10 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Though on the other hand the whole of Western Europe have reduced their demand for gas (estimated by 10%) and they are massively pivoting to renewables at record speed. So overall, the long-term climate effect might be net positive.

True Dat

[Mr_Dogg]

1 hour ago, ender4 said:

Though on the other hand the whole of Western Europe have reduced their demand for gas (estimated by 10%) and they are massively pivoting to renewables at record speed. So overall, the long-term climate effect might be net positive.

Although Germany have cranked up their coal use again. But yes, hopefully long term it's a positive.

[magnkarl]

Videos now out of Russia damaging one Bradley and pretending that they won the war. The vatniks are out in force showing their love for Russia.

Just to regurgitate something Patton said about D-day where the allies lost several thousand elite soldiers before getting onto the beach, losses are a very real sign that things are progressing.

The reason Russia has taken out some Western tech is that SZU are now well beyond the contact line. They’ll need to penetrate well beyond the third line before we’ll see the sort of lightning advances we saw in Kharkiv.

Meanwhile Twitter is also full of whole Russian BTGs running away in fear as Ukraine advances.

[Panto_Villan]

52 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Videos now out of Russia damaging one Bradley and pretending that they won the war. The vatniks are out in force showing their love for Russia.

Just to regurgitate something Patton said about D-day where the allies lost several thousand elite soldiers before getting onto the beach, losses are a very real sign that things are progressing.

The reason Russia has taken out some Western tech is that SZU are now well beyond the contact line. They’ll need to penetrate well beyond the third line before we’ll see the sort of lightning advances we saw in Kharkiv.

Meanwhile Twitter is also full of whole Russian BTGs running away in fear as Ukraine advances.

To be fair, there's pictures going round of an abandoned / destroyed Leopard and what looks like 8 (!) abandoned / destroyed Bradleys clumped together. That's about 10% of the Bradleys sent to Ukraine lost (and potentially captured) in one place, which isn't exactly a great look - if the Russians did that we'd all be laughing at them for their incompetence.

But as you say, it's to be expected. Looks like the crews survived, and if the attack is going better elsewhere then losing vehicles is just the price you pay to make progress.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Panto_Villan

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Russians are having a meltdown on social media.  

A fuel depot in Ufa is on fire. At least 10 storage tanks are destroyed.  

The group that conducted the attack announced it the day BEFORE the attack.  

Even with advanced notice Russia had nothing available to stop the attack.  
 

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

More panic in Russia.  

Just to the east of Crimea is a long, thin strip of land (Arabat Spit).   Its the home of beach resort, spas etc. 

The Russians are saying the Ukrainian Special Forces have landed and taken control of several hotels.  This has caused panic and many people are reported to be fleeing across the bridge.  

Whether it's true or not - it shows how spooked the Russians are.   It also shows how easily  Russian reserves are being pulled away from front lines.  

Edited June 11, 2023 by Mandy Lifeboats
Added sumfink

[magnkarl]

The look on the face of Mailar and her generals in today’s presser sure tells more than they’d like to say. Let’s just say they didn’t look sad. They also claim that even though they’ve lost some Bradleys and Leo2s, these losses are smaller incidents in certain places.

From my very limited experience Ukraine needs to have a gepard in these convoys, they can warn convoys about the helicopter fired agtms that’s been taking out the vehicles we’ve seen, and at the same time take out the relatively slow missiles before they reach the convoys and relay the heli position to AA units in the back.

[bielesibub]

Kicking off - BBC - Ukraine war: Russia moves to take direct control of Wagner Group

Quote

Russia appears to have moved to take direct control of Wagner, after months of infighting between defence officials and the private military group.

Deputy Defence Minister Nikolai Pankov said on Saturday "volunteer formations" will be asked to sign contracts directly with the ministry of defence.

The vaguely worded statement is widely believed to target the group.

But in a furious statement on Sunday, Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin said his forces would boycott the contracts.

The private military group has played a major role in the war in Ukraine, fighting on the side of Russian forces.

But Prigozhin, who is said to hold political ambitions of his own, has been embroiled in a public dispute with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and military chief Valery Gerasimov for months.