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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


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19 hours ago, avfc1982am said:

Really interesting short piece from Times correspondent Anthony Loyd. Mentions the situation in Bakhmut but interestingly mentions that not only have the Russians(Wagner) put everything into this offensive but the Ukrainians have used a lot of reservists planned for a spring offensive. 

 

To some extent this is true, however UA servicemen are trained daily in the UK\US\Germany\Poland. It's these capable Western trained soldiers that will be used in the counter offensives, while the normal conscripts will be used to hold the line.

The manpower lost is also not close to even, so even if Ukraine goes toe to toe with Russia in sending in reserves they'll still have a lot left in the tank, Ukraine has something like 1 million active servicemen now while Russia's military is likely below this if you discount Wagner and count losses.

The key figure is 7-1, Russia loses 7 soldiers for every UA soldier, and UAs comparatively extremely better military aid system means that a lot of the UA soldiers end up returning to the field after receiving treatment, while Russians often die from relatively treatable injuries.

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59 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

To some extent this is true, however UA servicemen are trained daily in the UK\US\Germany\Poland. It's these capable Western trained soldiers that will be used in the counter offensives, while the normal conscripts will be used to hold the line.

The manpower lost is also not close to even, so even if Ukraine goes toe to toe with Russia in sending in reserves they'll still have a lot left in the tank, Ukraine has something like 1 million active servicemen now while Russia's military is likely below this if you discount Wagner and count losses.

The key figure is 7-1, Russia loses 7 soldiers for every UA soldier, and UAs comparatively extremely better military aid system means that a lot of the UA soldiers end up returning to the field after receiving treatment, while Russians often die from relatively treatable injuries.

I haven't seen this reported 7:1 ratio for personnel loses. I've seen a 7:1 ration for artillery shells being fired but not a 7:1 on personnel being lost and I'd be a bit cynical about these figures being entirely accurate. I'm not saying it isn't true but it seems a stretch. It was only a week ago Ukrainians were complaining about the high numbers of casualties and pulling out of Bakhmut altogether, if that ratio was 7:1 in loses then I don't think that would be considered at all. It's a perfect location to wipe out the Russian and Wagner forces if true. 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

I haven't seen this reported 7:1 ratio for personnel loses. I've seen a 7:1 ration for artillery shells being fired but not a 7:1 on personnel being lost and I'd be a bit cynical about these figures being entirely accurate. I'm not saying it isn't true but it seems a stretch. It was only a week ago Ukrainians were complaining about the high numbers of casualties and pulling out of Bakhmut altogether, if that ratio was 7:1 in loses then I don't think that would be considered at all. It's a perfect location to wipe out the Russian and Wagner forces if true. 

 

 

Yeah obviously the figure could be lower, say 1-3 or 1-4, but there's absolutely no doubt that UA lose a lot less soldiers than Russia based on i.e the laws of defensive warfare, and better medical situations than the Russian forces.

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Wouldn't surprise me if Russians are losing a higher ratio than that attacking fixed positions attackers always lose more . And they are using wave tactics to they are probably taking staggering losses. Also they are badly training conscripts

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1 minute ago, HAL said:

Wouldn't surprise me if Russians are losing a higher ratio than that attacking fixed positions attackers always lose more . And they are using wave tactics to they are probably taking staggering losses. Also they are badly training conscripts

Russians are and have lost a staggering amount of troops. However, I think we should all be cautious as to not make them out to be completely incompetent and the Ukrainians so much smarter. As I've said above the general reports from most sources I've seen is a 7:1 artillery ratio in favour of Russians. If this is the case then the likely hood Ukrainians are still taking less casualties than Russians is remote at best. I'd air on the side of caution at the moment because whether we like it or not the disinfo on both sides will be high, including our own media, making it really difficult to trust everything we are being told.

Right now the only reports I am believing with any conviction are those from the frontline reporting, or vlogging. They're the only voices really worth trusting and from what I am seeing Ukrainian forces are holding Bakhmut by their finger tips, using small arms, due to the lack of ammo. 

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Ukraine might be staging one of the most historic military operations ever.  Even if they aren’t - the threat that they might is genius in itself…….

Bakhmut is nearly surrounded.  But instead of withdrawing Ukraine in holding onto the city to the last.  They continue to draw in Wagner forces and as a result other areas of the line are not well defended.  Ukraine is threatening to punch through those lines and encircle Wagner in Bakhmut.  

This is exactly how the Russians saved Stalingrad in WW2.  

The threat of this operation has a giving Wagner a massive problem.  They can’t afford to be encircled but they have also promised the capture of Bakhmut.  Nor can they hold their 60km of front line with ever diminishing numbers of troops. 

Wagner has a solution. They can withdraw and straighten out their front line down to 30km.  Or they can beg the Russian Army for help.  Both would be an embarrassment.

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1 hour ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Or they can beg the Russian Army for help.  Both would be an embarrassment.

Yeah that'll go well considering they've been slagging them off for months and Shiougu has his own PMC gig going too

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I'm loving how few soldiers the once 'elite' 155th naval infantry brigade has left, they've apparently re-conscripted 7 times, essentially leaving their once elite brigade at 10% professional soldiers and 90% untrained conscripts. Having lost 130 armoured and heavy vehicles in Vuhledar they're now down to assaulting an etrenched enemy across fields with small arms. Hence the mutiny and Russia deploying Rosgvardia to shoot anyone retreating.

The question is - does Russia have any 'elite' formations left? 

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2 minutes ago, Genie said:

Wait, Russia is shooting its own troops if the are seen to be retreating? 😯

It's probably a stretch, but Rosgvardia has been deployed to the North of Mariupol where the 155th have recently mutinied. The 155th don't want to attack Vuhledar anymore, and Ukraine have taken out bases in Mariupol and Berdyansk with JDAMS and HIMARS in the last couple of days. What they're doing with the mutiny is anyone's guess, but I'm guessing court martial and death penalty. 

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3 minutes ago, Genie said:

Wait, Russia is shooting its own troops if the are seen to be retreating? 😯

They've been doing that since day 1. When the Kadyrovites were on the battlefield before they got reduced to sod all and the prick had to run back to Chechnya, that was their job. They are called barrier troops, you run forward as told and take your chances or definitely get shot dead if you retreat.

Standard Russian military doctrine.

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Little bit more on the Prigozhin claim Wagner have been "Cut off". Interestingly, if Russia abandon Wagner to their fate, then it's a matter of time before mutiny or retreat come into play, especially as I do not see Wagner just walking away after suffering so badly  and allowing regular Russian forces to fill the void. Either Putin is playing a dangerous game that could backfire dramatically by alienating Wagner and his pal, or is he actually calling the shots anymore?

 

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