Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[chrisp65]

2 hours ago, KentVillan said:

Russia’s demise has already happened. It’s an impoverished basket case economy with a small wealthy elite

The current regime is criminal, and crashing everything it touches, that’s a given.

But the country has vast land, it has tens of millions of people and it has vast untapped mineral wealth.

The reality is, a ‘straight’ regime, or even a bent one that understood business, could make Russia a superpower. But they look a long way off from having a straight regime. But the place has been knocked down plenty of times before, the tsars tried to bin it, the revolution could have, as could the Second World War, the Cold War, the 1990’s. But its still there and it still has potential. From a basic google search they might have discovered and tapped about a third of their mineral wealth, from tin and iron ore, aluminium, gold, diamonds, uranium, oil, gas… the whole shebang.

Imagine a competent criminal with decent organisational abilities in charge of Russia. 

 

[KentVillan]

1 minute ago, chrisp65 said:

The current regime is criminal, and crashing everything it touches, that’s a given.

But the country has vast land, it has tens of millions of people and it has vast untapped mineral wealth.

The reality is, a ‘straight’ regime, or even a bent one that understood business, could make Russia a superpower. But they look a long way off from having a straight regime. But the place has been knocked down plenty of times before, the tsars tried to bin it, the revolution could have, as could the Second World War, the Cold War, the 1990’s. But its still there and it still has potential. From a basic google search they might have discovered and tapped about a third of their mineral wealth, from tin and iron ore, aluminium, gold, diamonds, uranium, oil, gas… the whole shebang.

Imagine a competent criminal with decent organisational abilities in charge of Russia. 

 

Don’t disagree with any of that. It would be good for the world if they achieved that with a democratic political setup.

[chrisp65]

3 hours ago, blandy said:

If we’ve said the same, I’ve either written badly or misunderstood you. I’m labouring under the impression you think/thought that because, in part, of the influence of defence company lobbyists, bankers, stooge politicians and the like, that the west / we actively want the conflict to drag on. That we know exactly what we want and it’s to drag it all out.

My position is that I don’t believe that is the collective case for the west at all. I do accept that parts of (particularly in the US) “machine” might see it all dragging on as a bonus, or as desirable in order to weaken Russia even more, or because it helps US corporate bodies or arms companies, but I don’t think that’s the case in Europe, more than as a very minority view.  It’s hurting Europe significantly and like I said, most if not all European governments are either pushing for more support for Ukraine to help them win asap (e.g. Poland), or are being as pro-active as possible within their short term thinking and bearing in mind the state of their resources (e.g. UK, Norway etc), or are like Germany and to an extent France stumbling around in shock at the upheaval in what they saw as the natural order of things, but collectively those different takes on it amalgamate into an unfocused, but supportive stance, which rather wishes it would all go away, but also understands that it isn’t going to and is trying to walk a line while spinning plates (domestic pressures, weak military resources, export control laws, Hungarian and Serbian ambivalence, to put it kindly…).

 

On 14/02/2023 at 09:41, chrisp65 said:

I think there’s a good case to argue that ‘we’ aren’t after a quick win.

A quick win could destabilise Russia and lead to people walking across the border in their tens of thousands. It wouldn’t suit the arms manufacturers. It wouldn’t suit the politicians that need those action photos next to a guy in khaki.

Lots of the West have a happy distraction with regular TikTok’s of tank columns being blown up by TMMA’s (this month’s must have military acronym).

Certainly the energy suppliers would be sad to see normality return.

I think our plan is to give just enough to stop this drawing to a conclusion. 

 

On 14/02/2023 at 11:46, chrisp65 said:

 

I don’t think there’s a smoke filled darkened room full of suited strategists pulling the strings. Not in the sense you could burst in on them and shout ahaa! There’s probably not even blood sacrifice at Davos.

I think there are multiple factors that cause the ‘just enough’ which in turn does benefit a lot of those that have exceptionally good lobbying abilities. Who has lobbying ability? Energy companies? The military infrastructure? Right leaning media? Money? Without wishing to sound a bit New World Order, the vetting of the right sort of politicians and political thinking has already been done. They aren’t trying to dictate policy to politicians now, on the cloven hoof. Those guys are only there because of the money from backers already seeded years ago. 

I don’t doubt we would rather Russia had just kept itself to itself and kept bobbing along supplying gas and having its thinkers stumble out of windows. But now we are here it’s good news for politicians that like sucking up to the military, that like looking tough, that like a crisis that requires special measures and special contracts and special consultancies and special crisis talks and special photo ops..

If a couple of challenger energy delivery start ups have disappeared along the way, I don’t think Centrica or Shell or Qatar will be overly worried. 

 

Fair enough, we’ll agree to differ. 

 

[magnkarl]

13 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

 

 

 

Fair enough, we’ll agree to differ. 

 

To me it seems like Blandy's argument is more that we're having an adaptive approach, while you seem to be arguing that we're planning and influencing for the war to last long for monetary gain.

In my opinion we're more in Blandy's court, we should have given more early but initially it seemed that especially the bigger NATO nations on the continent were absolutely timid about their loss of energy safety and the threat of nuclear war. I don't really see the kind of financial gain that some people are arguing, we're essentially in a recession, and as of now most of the stuff delivered to Ukraine is either out of date or from storage. There are probably some hawks in the US that sees Ukraine as a chance to earn some cash, but I don't think it will ever be. There's too much focus, too many cameras, too much information online, and Ukrainians seem very focused on this being a fight for their liberty rather than some hidden US\NATO interests.

This war has completely shocked the natural order in the world. It's not really the 'old guard' deciding what happens in NATO anymore, Poland, the Baltics, Norway, Netherlands, Denmark and the old republics below Poland seem to be pushing the goalpost here. To me that's a good thing, the democracies in especially Northern Europe will keep NATO honest.

There's still more Western MBT's in the Iraqi army than there is in Ukraine's army and Iran still has more Western airframes than Ukraine, if we wanted to make a buck I'm sure we'd sold many more weapons to Ukraine via loans than we have.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

16 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

The reality is, a ‘straight’ regime, or even a bent one that understood business, could make Russia a superpower.

The chance,  if they ever had one is gone for good now IMO.

There are too many problem bred into the country it's impossible to do.

The West helped them after the fall of the USSR to get the oil and gas going,  it took decades, with help.  It's Western knowhow that kept it all going as it is a unique drilling environment (Things can't freeze)

The corruption,  health, demographics, geographical location,  lack of warm water ports,  brain drain, removal of western companies,  removal of the easiest profit making gas and oil sales,  price caps and the basic fact they are a pariah in the world as an entity mean if they stopped the war now and tried their very best to get the economy going,  still won't happen.  It would need people who recognize that joining the EU would help enormously for example long term as the location lends itself to trade.  I don't think they can change.

They are actually going to run out of money,  they have approximately $350-$500 billion dollars in Gold and assets that they can unload (According to Russian numbers) + the trading account (Cant spend this).  They are,  from February going to lose 35 billion dollars a month because of the caps and EU ban.  Hopefully one day soon the pension money or teachers pay or whatever will not arrive in the regional bank's in Russia,  then we know where they are at.  And then we watch.

 

 

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Here we go again.......

 

"Top Putin war official plunges 160 feet to her death from high-rise building"

https://nypost.com/2023/02/16/top-putin-war-official-marine-yankina-plunges-to-her-death/

 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

10 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Here we go again.......

 

"Top Putin war official plunges 160 feet to her death from high-rise building"

https://nypost.com/2023/02/16/top-putin-war-official-marine-yankina-plunges-to-her-death/

 

 
Who pushes the pushers is my question ?

Edited February 16, 2023 by Amsterdam_Neil_D

[avfc1982am]

7 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Here we go again.......

 

"Top Putin war official plunges 160 feet to her death from high-rise building"

https://nypost.com/2023/02/16/top-putin-war-official-marine-yankina-plunges-to-her-death/

 

And in that story....

'In November, Col. Vadim Boiko, 44, deputy head of the Makarov Pacific Higher Naval School in Vladivostok, was found dead from multiple gunshot wounds in what has been described as a suicide. Boiko, who played a role in Putin’s partial mobilization efforts, “executed” himself with five gunshots to the chest in his commander’s office after allegedly being set up to take the fall for some of the problems plaguing the invasion of Ukraine, according to his widow.'

 

At this point, there is no point taking any prominent Russian suicide as fact when they are more than likely executions. It's become quite ridiculous claiming otherwise under the Putin regime. 

[bickster]

That is the second this week. Maj. Gen. Vladimir Makarov, 72 found dead in a church, apparently a suicide too

[il_serpente]

33 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

And in that story....

'In November, Col. Vadim Boiko, 44, deputy head of the Makarov Pacific Higher Naval School in Vladivostok, was found dead from multiple gunshot wounds in what has been described as a suicide. Boiko, who played a role in Putin’s partial mobilization efforts, “executed” himself with five gunshots to the chest in his commander’s office after allegedly being set up to take the fall for some of the problems plaguing the invasion of Ukraine, according to his widow.'

 

At this point, there is no point taking any prominent Russian suicide as fact when they are more than likely executions. It's become quite ridiculous claiming otherwise under the Putin regime. 

Are you doubting that this man was able to shoot himself in the chest a second, third, fourth and fifth time?  

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

20 minutes ago, bickster said:

That is the second this week. Maj. Gen. Vladimir Makarov, 72 found dead in a church, apparently a suicide too

Tough week.

[delboy54]

How many anti Putin's have fallen out of windows...?

I would make sure I stayed in a ground floor bedroom in a hotel

[chrisp65]

It’s a co-ordinated fenestration demonstration.

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, delboy54 said:

How many anti Putin's have fallen out of windows...?

I would make sure I stayed in a ground floor bedroom in a hotel

They aren't anti-putins as such, just people who have displeased their glorious leader in some way

But the answer is lots, I'd imagine there might be a few we haven't heard about.

The FSB really does operate like the maffia at times

It really won't make much difference where you live, they'll just throw you out of the top floor of a high rise mental institution

FWIW, the female one today may actually be a genuine suicide as it has a level of planning never seen before. She jumped off her ex-husbands apartment block after phoning him to tell him what she was going to do. If it was the FSB they wouldn't do that, it sends a message that it was an actual suicide which is counter to the message they'd want.

[one_ian_taylor]

1 hour ago, avfc1982am said:

And in that story....

'In November, Col. Vadim Boiko, 44, deputy head of the Makarov Pacific Higher Naval School in Vladivostok, was found dead from multiple gunshot wounds in what has been described as a suicide. Boiko, who played a role in Putin’s partial mobilization efforts, “executed” himself with five gunshots to the chest in his commander’s office after allegedly being set up to take the fall for some of the problems plaguing the invasion of Ukraine, according to his widow.'

 

At this point, there is no point taking any prominent Russian suicide as fact when they are more than likely executions. It's become quite ridiculous claiming otherwise under the Putin regime. 

This is Blackadder levels of ridiculousness. "He accidentally, brutally stabbed himself in the chest while shaving". I'm  not sure if the lack of effort to disguise these things is deliberate or clumsiness 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

22 minutes ago, bickster said:

 

FWIW, the female one today may actually be a genuine suicide...

Did she have an alcohol problem caused by the menopause?

Did she have dog? 

 

[LondonLax]

I imagine some of these people are under an immense level of pressure, being in the positions they are in during a war that is not going to plan.

It would not be a surprise to find out some of them are legitimate suicides. 

[fruitvilla]

1 hour ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Here we go again.......

 

"Top Putin war official plunges 160 feet to her death from high-rise building"

https://nypost.com/2023/02/16/top-putin-war-official-marine-yankina-plunges-to-her-death/

 

There was something odd about the NY Post reporting ... 16th floor? The building pictured had no more than ten floors.

[avfc1982am]

14 minutes ago, fruitvilla said:

There was something odd about the NY Post reporting ... 16th floor? The building pictured had no more than ten floors.

160 ft

[Mandy Lifeboats]

13 minutes ago, fruitvilla said:

There was something odd about the NY Post reporting ... 16th floor? The building pictured had no more than ten floors.

I thought the same.  But if you look on street view that building has some tall blocks right next to it.  I guess the picture is where the body was found.