snowychap Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, ml1dch said: Boris Johnson is apparently AWOL and nobody knows where he is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 Right next to the question mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 9, 2018 Moderator Share Posted July 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said: I have no idea who or what Europe elects is so I couldn't/wouldn't vouch for any voracity on what they do. Europe Elects is just an organisation that tracks polls across the EU. It does not do polling. Survation did that particular poll 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 9, 2018 Moderator Share Posted July 9, 2018 16 minutes ago, NurembergVillan said: What happens if you cheat on your wife and get caught? You lose lots of money in an attempt to keep it quiet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a m ole Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Straggler said: Cheating, lying Brexiteers are busily stealing away Britain from the British. The lies The cheating The whole damn process is illegitimate. The phrase "if something seems to be too good to be true it probably isn't" may work in reverse in this case. If something seems too bad to be true it is probably Brexit. how dare you question the Will of the People TM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 23 minutes ago, bickster said: Survation Same for them then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakotaDakota Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 (edited) 41 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: 808 people is comfortably enough for a statistically significant sample. I don't completely disagree but when there was only a difference of 3.8% when 33.5 million people voted i'm not really sure much can be learned by asking 800 people what they think. Sure it makes good headlines saying "the people" have changed their mind but there is no real context to any of these surveys. How many of each age bracket, how did each of them vote originally? & no real way to confirm their original vote anyway. Who was asking the questions? lefty student or skinhead in doc martins... Where did they ask the questions? London?, Sunderland?, Brighton? Boston? Boston had a 77.2% turnout and 75.6% of those voted leave. I'm sure if you aked 800 people there today the result would be about the same I'm guessing that Cambridge with their 73.8% remain would also still be about the same. Edited July 9, 2018 by LakotaDakota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 9, 2018 Moderator Share Posted July 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said: Same for them then Just now, LakotaDakota said: I don't completely disagree but when there was only a difference of 3.8% when 33.5 million people voted i'm not really sure much can be learned by asking 800 people what they think. Sure it makes good headlines saying "the people" have changed their mind but there is no real context to any of these surveys. How many of each age bracket, how did each of them vote originally? & no real way to confirm their original vote anyway. Who was asking the questions? lefty student or skinhead in doc martins... Survation were THE most accurate pollster in 2017 with a polling error of less than 1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 9, 2018 Moderator Share Posted July 9, 2018 In before @snowychap, Boris gone now too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, bickster said: In before @snowychap, Boris gone now too In all this Brexit bollocks, there is at least some positive news. At least until they put up the next incompetent to take his place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 9, 2018 Moderator Share Posted July 9, 2018 1 minute ago, snowychap said: In all this Brexit bollocks, there is at least some positive news. At least until they put up the next incompetent to take his place. Tory unCivil War approacheth How does May survive this? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 1 minute ago, bickster said: Tory unCivil War approacheth How does May survive this? I was just about to edit my post above with: It's positive unless he becomes some sort of stalking buffalo for Rees-Mogg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straggler Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 Oh no, not Boris too. How will we ever cope without our chief diplomat? There is a possibility this might throw a spanner in the works of Brexit too, and just as it seemed to be going so smoothly? I hope this won't dent his ambitions of being Prime Minister though and that he will still be able to lurk around in the shadows ready to stick the knife in the PM's back at the first convenient opportunity. I'm sure 100% that Boris is doing this in the best interests of the country and in no way serving his own narrow interests. What a principled hero of the people. (sarcasm was used in the above) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 9, 2018 Moderator Share Posted July 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowychap said: I was just about to edit my post above with: It's positive unless he becomes some sort of stalking buffalo for Rees-Mogg. More of a Hippopotamus imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 (edited) 3 minutes ago, bickster said: More of a Hippopotamus imo Yes. A stalking hippo has an aptly 'classics' tone. Edited July 9, 2018 by snowychap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 9, 2018 Moderator Share Posted July 9, 2018 Just now, Straggler said: Oh no, not Boris too. How will we ever cope without our chief diplomat? There is a possibility this might throw a spanner in the works of Brexit too, and just as it seemed to be going so smoothly? I hope this won't dent his ambitions of being Prime Minister though and that he will still be able to lurk around in the shadows ready to stick the knife in the PM's back at the first convenient opportunity. I'm sure 100% that Boris is doing this in the best interests of the country and in no way serving his own narrow interests. What a principled hero of the people. (sarcasm was used in the above) Him and Davis just didn't want to pay for taxis, I have no idea what you're on about, what? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a m ole Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 (edited) Fox off next? Edited July 9, 2018 by snowychap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 19 minutes ago, bickster said: Survation were THE most accurate pollster in 2017 with a polling error of less than 1% Cool and thank you again. Well done them. For the record I wasn't knocking them! I'm just that ignorant as to who the press have been quoting 1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said: 808 people is comfortably enough for a statistically significant sample. Mathematically maybe, I mean to say from a purely mathematical perspective maybe In this case I think it's quite small personally, however as I said before it's all in the voracity and representativeness of the findings as much as it is to do with size. To paraphrase it neatly, 'without seeing their workings' basically. That's all. In this instance it's possible (without any statement on likelihood there I feel the need to add ffs!) they surveyed more people but found 808 to be the most representative. Or the sweet spot if you like. https://bl.ocks.org/pmplewa/4120c2929ede7e336d9b55b760e496f6 Good visualisation of the central limit theorem for a uniform sampling distribution there and on the wider point of polling and the even wider point that leads to in the current climate about not believing the much pilloried experts it's even more important to check into how the results are achieved. Quote Accurate political polling mainly comes down to ensuring that the voting population is properly represented in the poll. To get the right representation, pollsters typically weight survey respondents according to key variables such as age, education, gender, race, region within a state (for state polls11) and registered or likely voter status. So, for example, if the sample of respondents your poll reaches has too few women relative to the electorate you’re trying to measure, you would count the answers of each woman you did reach a little extra. It’s extremely tricky to accurately weight a polling sample — even the pros disagree about how best to do it, and they sometimes get it wrong. Improper weighting was at least partially responsible for the polls underestimating President Trump’s strength in states with large populations of white voters without a college degree. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fake-polls-are-a-real-problem/ That was all I was getting at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, snowychap said: Fox off next? Seen it suggested he's being tapped up for Foreign Sec, which if true would be even more appalling than the previous incumbent. This government can't fall fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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