OutByEaster? Posted November 3, 2016 Moderator Share Posted November 3, 2016 In terms of how MP's will line up to vote on this, I can't remember if the referendum was counted on a constituency by constituency basis or by some sort of regional method. I'm thinking, if I'm the MP for an area of Sunderland and that area voted overwhelmingly in favour of Brexit, then as their MP I'd be duty bound (and with one eye on my next local election well advised) to back their choice and vote that way. If I was an MP for a constituency of Sunderland and personally in favour of remain, then even though Sunderland as a whole voted Brexit, I could claim my particular constituents were in favour of Remain and that I've spoken to them and they've agreed, so I'm just doing my job by voting Remain. If the original counting lines aren't aligned to constituency's then MP's have a lot of wriggle room, if not, they have very little. Or are both of those far fetched and I'll just vote the way that Theresa tells me or she'll have my knackers on a platter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mockingbird_franklin Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 David Davies demonstrating he understands nothing about the Law Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted November 3, 2016 VT Supporter Share Posted November 3, 2016 Unless based in an overwhelming Remain area, which basically means London and Scotland, every MP is going to vote Leave with the easy excuse of/get out of jail free card 'it's what the people wanted'. It's a very brave MP that knowingly vote against his constituency, residually on such a volatile subject. A lot of them probably should do, and a lot probably think they ought to, but they won't. Few MPs are known for their spine and none have the balls to turn to their constituents and say 'sorry you're wrong and it's for the best I ignore you'. Hence today is a victory only in that it hopefully puts some oversight in place and applies the reins to particularly rabid Tories that may or may not currently have ministerial positions. We'll still be leaving. As for the fallout from the Leavers today... Far too many revealing ever more obviously they know sod all about anything. The gay judge spoiling the party thing is just a sad indictment of a huge swathe of this country's popular populace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 56 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: In terms of how MP's will line up to vote on this, I can't remember if the referendum was counted on a constituency by constituency basis or by some sort of regional method. I'm thinking, if I'm the MP for an area of Sunderland and that area voted overwhelmingly in favour of Brexit, then as their MP I'd be duty bound (and with one eye on my next local election well advised) to back their choice and vote that way. If I was an MP for a constituency of Sunderland and personally in favour of remain, then even though Sunderland as a whole voted Brexit, I could claim my particular constituents were in favour of Remain and that I've spoken to them and they've agreed, so I'm just doing my job by voting Remain. If the original counting lines aren't aligned to constituency's then MP's have a lot of wriggle room, if not, they have very little. Or are both of those far fetched and I'll just vote the way that Theresa tells me or she'll have my knackers on a platter? my MP is pro Brexit, his constituency voted remain but he's a good boy that does what the big boys in tory club tell him to the vote would be comfortably won by Brexit, it's simply the inconvenience of delay and possible conditions that we are looking at here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 MPs vote against their constituents all the time. All of the recent Tory unpooular stuff has had the MPs just doing what the party tells them to. So they'll all just vote for what their party tells them to, apart from a few mavericks with some rare scruples. Maybe a good chance for labour, lib dem, green to differentiate themselves and make it clear all of their MPs will be voting remain. A remain party could get a decent leg up from 48%+ of the electorate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 Inflation kicks in, economic effects of Brexit uncertainty start to finally seep into the public consciousness and then come time of the parliamentary debate opinion polls show people want nothing to do with this (hard)Brexit nonsense... MPs have an easy remain vote. Inflation kicks in, economic effects of Brexit uncertainty start to finally seep into the public consciousness and then come time of the parliamentary debate opinion polls show people want nothing to do with these EU foopers who are ruining mighty Blighty... MPs have an easy exit vote. Who can control the message over the next 6 months... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 2 hours ago, OutByEaster? said: In terms of how MP's will line up to vote on this, I can't remember if the referendum was counted on a constituency by constituency basis or by some sort of regional method. I'm thinking, if I'm the MP for an area of Sunderland and that area voted overwhelmingly in favour of Brexit, then as their MP I'd be duty bound (and with one eye on my next local election well advised) to back their choice and vote that way. If I was an MP for a constituency of Sunderland and personally in favour of remain, then even though Sunderland as a whole voted Brexit, I could claim my particular constituents were in favour of Remain and that I've spoken to them and they've agreed, so I'm just doing my job by voting Remain. If the original counting lines aren't aligned to constituency's then MP's have a lot of wriggle room, if not, they have very little. Or are both of those far fetched and I'll just vote the way that Theresa tells me or she'll have my knackers on a platter? I may be wrong but MP's aren't voting on leave or remain , merely the content of the terms in which we leave ... it's still leave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 12 minutes ago, villakram said: Inflation kicks in, economic effects of Brexit uncertainty start to finally seep into the public consciousness and then come time of the parliamentary debate opinion polls show people want nothing to do with this (hard)Brexit nonsense... MPs have an easy remain vote. Inflation kicks in, economic effects of Brexit uncertainty start to finally seep into the public consciousness and then come time of the parliamentary debate opinion polls show people want nothing to do with these EU foopers who are ruining mighty Blighty... MPs have an easy exit vote. Who can control the message over the next 6 months... U.K. Kicks it heels , meanwhile France , Holland and then finally Germany all vote anti EU parties in charge in the coming months and the whole house of cards comes crashing down anyway and we missed the boat to get a head start on everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted November 3, 2016 VT Supporter Share Posted November 3, 2016 (edited) 7 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: I may be wrong but MP's aren't voting on leave or remain , merely the content of the terms in which we leave ... it's still leave I may also be completely wrong but is it not that MPs have to ratify the decision to invoke Article 50 (and therefore they could reject it. They won't but they could) and also would have to verify the ultimate terms of our leaving, effectively meaning the executive can't railroad the country into whatever they feel is best? Edit - slightly wrong. Parliament has to ratify triggering Article 50 which then possibly empowers Parliament to have oversight on the terms agreed in Leaving as they may refuse to agree if they aren't privy to the nature of the plan (hahaha) in Leaving is much more accurate... Edited November 3, 2016 by Chindie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 So to recap on the day, the unelected Prime Minister is against parliament having a say on us getting our country's democracy back, believing we are better served leaving it to a secret deal arranged by Liam Fox using crown prerogative? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 (edited) How many elected Prime Ministers have we ever had in this country ? she was elected by her party however unlike say Prime Minister Brown Edited November 3, 2016 by tonyh29 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 Ahhhh but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 Guess it's not just NFL rules you don't get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: Guess it's not just NFL rules you don't get Says the man who suddenly is an expert when it involves Seattle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 15 minutes ago, tonyh29 said: How many elected Prime Ministers have we ever had in this country ? she was elected by her party however unlike say Prime Minister Brown Turns out we also didn't vote for £350 million a week for the NHS. Funny old thing this democracy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Turns out we also didn't vote for £350 million a week for the NHS. Funny old thing this democracy. Well a quick look at the ashcroft polls confirms you are right and nobody cited it as a reason for leaving nor indeed does any other poll that I could see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa4europe Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 12 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Turns out we also didn't vote for £350 million a week for the NHS. Funny old thing this democracy Somewhere between those voting to get rid of those pesky foreigners and getting rid of Cameron did anyone actually vote because they believed £350m a week would end up in the NHS? it was always a ridiculously obvious load of bollocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 1 minute ago, tonyh29 said: Well a quick look at the ashcroft polls confirms you are right and nobody cited it as a reason for leaving nor indeed does any other poll that I could see Page 192 of the Ashcroft Poll (Question 24) shows 97% of people that voted leave did so believing the NHS would be better off by voting leave. As leave won by 1.9%, I'd suggest more than 'nobody' was influenced by the NHS claim that Gove and Johnson and Fox regularly stood in front of. Ashcroft On the question 27, rank in order reasons for voting leave, only 4 Ashcroft pre selected options were available, and he didn't give the NHS as an option. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted November 4, 2016 Share Posted November 4, 2016 10 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Page 192 of the Ashcroft Poll (Question 24) shows 97% of people that voted leave did so believing the NHS would be better off by voting leave. As leave won by 1.9%, I'd suggest more than 'nobody' was influenced by the NHS claim that Gove and Johnson and Fox regularly stood in front of. Ashcroft On the question 27, rank in order reasons for voting leave, only 4 Ashcroft pre selected options were available, and he didn't give the NHS as an option. Page 192 ! Damn you and your thoroughness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted November 4, 2016 Share Posted November 4, 2016 Just now, tonyh29 said: Page 192 ! Damn you and your thoroughness I'm just full on stats nerd at the moment. Been teaching myself binominal probability over the last few evenings. To think a few years ago I'd have wasted an evening alone by just having a leisurely hour long tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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