ml1dch Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 1 hour ago, blandy said: But they're all fannying around as if it can, or at least as if it's a genuine possibility. It isn't. Yes, no and maybe. It's important to remember this isn't happening in a UK / Ireland vacuum. If there is a "porous" EU frontier, then the other 26 countries aren't going to shrug their shoulders and carry on as before. If they feel that the external border of their internal market isn't being appropriately policed, they will do it themselves. So Irish exports into France and Spain will be treated as if they were coming from outside mutually regulated territory. Current opinion in Ireland (at least, the last time I saw it being reported) is pretty firmly behind Varadkar's handling of this, and anger there is mainly directed at the UK rather than their own Government. Whether that is still the case if they are being forced to deal with the fallout, who knows. However, if it is a proper, chaotic, crash-out at the end of March though, nobody's attention will be on sanitary checks on crates of butter and cheese going through Derry and Lifford for a long, long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
choffer Posted June 21, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted June 21, 2018 2 hours ago, ml1dch said: [Speculation] A decent number probably think we left sometime in summer 2016 and haven't given it two minutes thought since then. [Speculation\] So you're saying that Brexit is a bit like the Premier League then? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted June 21, 2018 Author Moderator Share Posted June 21, 2018 1 hour ago, ml1dch said: Yes, no and maybe. It's important to remember this isn't happening in a UK / Ireland vacuum. If there is a "porous" EU frontier, then the other 26 countries aren't going to shrug their shoulders and carry on as before. If they feel that the external border of their internal market isn't being appropriately policed, they will do it themselves. So Irish exports into France and Spain will be treated as if they were coming from outside mutually regulated territory. The rules of the EU say they (the whole of the EU) have to have solid borders between them (the EU) and anyone else. So the EU's single market rules say the EU has to put up a hard border between (in this case) Rep. Ireland and the North. They know and knew this, which is why they got May to commit to "things stay the same" for N. Ireland/EU if there's no agreement. But if there's no agreement, then, er, the agreement of May to keep things the same isn't worth the paper it's written on. Both the EU and the UK would be obliged by EU and by WTO rules respectively to erect a hard border. And the Godd Friday agreement requires there to be no hard border. So the whole situation is incompatible with reality. There both has to be a hard border and cannot be a hard border. The various diplomats and politicians have to sort it out. Currently the EU is saying (with some justification) "Look, UK, you decided to leave, this conundrum is up to you to sort out - to come up with a solution" and the UK is all "um......technology?....er.....dunno" while insisting on red lines that create the problem to start with. Freedom of movement of goods & labour = no hard borders + abiding by the GFA + breaking the red lines.. No freedom of movement = much worse trade + hard borders + breaking the GFA. for each option there's a fundamental impossibility. Something has to give and at the moment the EU is (as all the way through) holding the whip hand, but at some point their own actions will also lead to a hard border situation, letting down Ireland, which would have its own knock on consequences - as you point out. The UK made the mess, (or Thereas May did, with her red lines) but because it will also screw up the EU's aim of no border with Ireland, they have to act a bit more positively to jointly come to a sane position with the UK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 Strong show of a united EU position vis-a-vis the border issue in Dublin today. TM is no more than a bag holder now and will be sacrificed when reality must be confronted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 (edited) 55 minutes ago, choffer said: So you're saying that Brexit is a bit like the Premier League then? Hmm. Maybe not the Premier League but... Biggest in the world at the end of the nineteenth century, muddles through much of the twentieth century with periods of extreme glory punctuated by periods of humbling decline, all the while having the feeling that we're never again going to be as big as we once were. The latter part of the nineties, the optimism picks up, under the stewardship of someone who looked like a bit of a saviour once upon a time, but by around 2005 pretty much everyone hates him and wants rid. When he finally does one, a new era starts at the end of the decade, with an unexpectedly professional feel, with new people in charge. The early glow doesn't last long though, and ultimately cutting back the finances means that things get worse and worse. Around 2016, the arse properly falls out the bottom of it, and the couple of years since see catastrophic mismanagement piled on top of mismanagement as we all try frantically to come to terms with terrible, self-inflicted decisions. And Sherwood is definitely the Farage of this tale. Edited June 21, 2018 by ml1dch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, blandy said: The rules of the EU say they (the whole of the EU) have to have solid borders between them (the EU) and anyone else. So the EU's single market rules say the EU has to put up a hard border between (in this case) Rep. Ireland and the North. They know and knew this, which is why they got May to commit to "things stay the same" for N. Ireland/EU if there's no agreement. But if there's no agreement, then, er, the agreement of May to keep things the same isn't worth the paper it's written on. Both the EU and the UK would be obliged by EU and by WTO rules respectively to erect a hard border. And the Godd Friday agreement requires there to be no hard border. So the whole situation is incompatible with reality. There both has to be a hard border and cannot be a hard border. The various diplomats and politicians have to sort it out. Currently the EU is saying (with some justification) "Look, UK, you decided to leave, this conundrum is up to you to sort out - to come up with a solution" and the UK is all "um......technology?....er.....dunno" while insisting on red lines that create the problem to start with. Freedom of movement of goods & labour = no hard borders + abiding by the GFA + breaking the red lines.. No freedom of movement = much worse trade + hard borders + breaking the GFA. for each option there's a fundamental impossibility. Something has to give and at the moment the EU is (as all the way through) holding the whip hand, but at some point their own actions will also lead to a hard border situation, letting down Ireland, which would have its own knock on consequences - as you point out. The UK made the mess, (or Thereas May did, with her red lines) but because it will also screw up the EU's aim of no border with Ireland, they have to act a bit more positively to jointly come to a sane position with the UK. But as you say - there isn't a "more positively" solution. And it's a case of "which promise of someone saying they are definitely not going to do something" gets broken. Of the three that apparently aren't going to happen, 1) no border, 2) the UK agreeing to keep things just as they are from their side and 3) the EU just agreeing to keep everything as they are from their side, I'd say that (3) is the least likely by quite a long way. Edited June 21, 2018 by ml1dch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted June 21, 2018 Author Moderator Share Posted June 21, 2018 40 minutes ago, ml1dch said: Of the three that apparently aren't going to happen, 1) no border, 2) the UK agreeing to keep things just as they are from their side and 3) the EU just agreeing to keep everything as they are from their side, I'd say that (3) is the least likely by quite a long way. Definitely. So what will happen if/when one of the other two things that aren't going to happen, happens? T.May will be hoisted for either breaking her red line one immigration or for breaking the GFA and plunging us into an absolute clusterpork in terms of border jams, grounded flights and all the rest of that stuff, plus a massive financial hit. Obviously dropping her immigration and border red line is less of a calamity than the alternative, so why isn't she sort of preparing the ground for that happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 13 minutes ago, blandy said: Definitely. So what will happen if/when one of the other two things that aren't going to happen, happens? T.May will be hoisted for either breaking her red line one immigration or for breaking the GFA and plunging us into an absolute clusterpork in terms of border jams, grounded flights and all the rest of that stuff, plus a massive financial hit. Obviously dropping her immigration and border red line is less of a calamity than the alternative, so why isn't she sort of preparing the ground for that happening? The reports are today that she's sort of trying to: May risks row with Brexiters over plan for single market for goods 'Theresa May could once again be on a collision course with the Brexiter wing of her party over a controversial proposal to keep the UK in a single market for goods. Whitehall sources said they believed free movement of goods was “100% the direction of travel” as the prime minister’s focus shifts to the next battle over Britain’s future relationship with the EU after next week’s Brussels summit. Downing Street remained tight-lipped, reiterating that the UK would be leaving the single market in its entirety. However, cabinet sources suggested the issue could be on the agenda at the Brexit “war cabinet” awayday at Chequers in early July. Government insiders believe that Britain might be able to retain a relatively frictionless trading relationship if it sticks to single market rules on manufactured products but diverges elsewhere, such as on services. But Brussels is unlikely to accept the proposal as it would require concessions on the free movement of people. UK negotiators would also push for an independent trade policy. One cabinet source said: “If you look at how all the negotiations with Brussels have been structured it looks like the whole process has been geared towards this endgame. But the big kicker for Brexiters will be freedom of movement. “What No 10 is banking on is that the EU will let them fudge this and give them some sort of flexibility. They’ll come up with clever wording but it will basically be freedom of movement by another name. There’s no way Brussels is going to allow us an opt-out.” A Whitehall official added: “It is the logical extension of the prime minister’s Mansion House speech that there would be a relatively high degree of alignment … But we want an independent trade policy. It would be a massive negotiating challenge.” Some Tory Brexiters believe Brussels is gearing up to offer the UK access to its markets this autumn, before the party conference season, on the understanding that May would accept some degree of freedom of movement, currently one of the prime minister’s red lines.' (more at link: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/21/may-risks-row-with-brexiters-over-plan-for-single-market-for-goods) Not saying any of that is going to happen, but the claim is that she's bending a little that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 The above is basically a paper written by Henry Newman of Open Europe a couple of months ago. He's one of the slightly sharper minds of those who thought this was a good idea, in that he at least acknowledges what the problems are, rather than just thinking that ignoring them is the same as them not existing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted June 21, 2018 Share Posted June 21, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, blandy said: Definitely. So what will happen if/when one of the other two things that aren't going to happen, happens? T.May will be hoisted for either breaking her red line one immigration or for breaking the GFA and plunging us into an absolute clusterpork in terms of border jams, grounded flights and all the rest of that stuff, plus a massive financial hit. Absolutely. I expect that if they do try and force her out then she'd still survive the no confidence vote, as there is still no appetite amongst Conservation MPs to replace her yet. I don't see any mechanism for a new election unless the full-on apocalyptic Brexit happens. It'll probably be more or less the same as now until October, then we'll have constitutional crisis season then. Edited June 21, 2018 by ml1dch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted June 21, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted June 21, 2018 Airbus jumping ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted June 22, 2018 Share Posted June 22, 2018 1 hour ago, Chindie said: Airbus jumping ship. Followed on The Times front page with "Government tells people 'hey, picking fruit for a living is actually a pretty good life" At least they've kept their sense of humour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted June 22, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted June 22, 2018 On 12/06/2018 at 09:14, HanoiVillan said: I've just found out that the Scum cover is a do-over of a cover from five years ago, which is . . . well, it's twice the size, is what it is: Mr. Bean, EasyJet & Center Parks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted June 22, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted June 22, 2018 The thing with Airbus is they are just the bellwether. A great many other businesses will be looking at exactly the same process. Also those numbers are **** sobering. 110,000 supply chain jobs. Brexiteers - you done **** up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted June 22, 2018 Share Posted June 22, 2018 10 hours ago, ml1dch said: Followed on The Times front page with "Government tells people 'hey, picking fruit for a living is actually a pretty good life" At least they've kept their sense of humour. I thought that must have been a Photoshop job, complete with a picture of the sun setting on the UK. The summer interns must be running the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Risso Posted June 22, 2018 Share Posted June 22, 2018 That's the sun rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted June 22, 2018 Share Posted June 22, 2018 9 minutes ago, Risso said: That's the sun rising. Yes I saw that in the caption. It was just the first impression that made it look like a cover from The Onion rather than a UK broadsheet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted June 22, 2018 Share Posted June 22, 2018 Greg Clark has said that it's essential that free movement of UK labour continue. Quote “So far ... the debate has focused mainly on goods,” he said. “About how our new customs arrangements with the EU need to keep the borders flowing and avoid costly delays and paperwork. But in order to provide services, it is people who must not be held up.” Clark said UK businesses had regularly raised the need for the frictionless movement of staff to continue and he had got the message “loud and clear”. “I completely understand when companies say that they rely on efficient mobility as it currently stands, raising concerns that restricting people’s ability to travel at short notice would be as damaging to our economy as frictions and disruption at our borders,” he told a Liverpool business festival. “We need to recognise that the EU is by far and away the single biggest consumer of our services exports,” he said. About £90bn of services were exported to the EU in 2016, more than the UK’s next eight largest partners combined. “This extraordinary performance has been built on the back of established trading relationships with the EU,” he said. “As we leave the European Union, we must deliberately set out to maintain these rights and introduce as few new barriers to trade in services as possible. This is every bit as important as avoiding barriers in manufactured goods.” https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/22/greg-clark-free-movement-uk-workers-eu-vital-brexit Can anyone offer any plausible justification why inward free movement of labour should be stopped, while outward free movement of labour should be allowed to continue unhindered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted June 22, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted June 22, 2018 Because those going out are English, and those wanting to come in are Foreign. One goes out and makes the World better, while millions come in and make England worse. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted June 22, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted June 22, 2018 (edited) BMW poke their head above the parapet and join Airbus in asking what the hell the government is playing at. Edited June 22, 2018 by Chindie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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