bickster Posted August 1, 2019 Moderator Share Posted August 1, 2019 1 minute ago, desensitized43 said: Which would be significant at a time when the government was making an attempt to actually govern through seeking to pass legislation... It's instant VONC territory. Boris could actually beat George Canning's 119 days in office Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, bickster said: It's instant VONC territory. Boris could actually beat George Canning's 119 days in office I don't think instant (though of course it's very helpful). Presumably Elphicke and Hermon (who are not counted in figures of 'the Tory majority') will vote Confidence. It's also unclear which of Field, Austin, Woodcock, O'Mara, Lloyd etc would vote No Confidence, and which would attend. I think the Tories may need to be at about -5 or -6 before you can be confident of them losing a VONC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 3 hours ago, StefanAVFC said: Her face and smile The Scots word "glaikit" comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 4 hours ago, NurembergVillan said: This speech, both in content and delivery, makes me want to self harm... When she said "We've never had" I found myself thinking "Please don't let it be ""we've never had it so good". But my fears were realised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted August 1, 2019 Moderator Share Posted August 1, 2019 Here's the Independent MPs, all 16 of them, Which way would they vote? Heidi Allen Ian Austin Luciana Berger Nick Boles Charlie Elphicke Frank Field Lady Hermon Kelvin Hopkins Ivan Lewis Steven Lloyd Jared O'Mara Gavin Shuker Angela Smith Gavin Williamson Sarah Woolaston John Woodcock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 Quote Government plans to buy up hundreds of thousands of tonnes of unsold lamb in the event of a no-deal Brexit could be unworkable because there is nowhere to store it, BBC Newsnight has learned. The reported plan suggested excess meat would be bought at the point of slaughter. But figures from the industry body which represents businesses that store frozen and chilled food show they are at capacity and "full to bursting". BBC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted August 1, 2019 Moderator Share Posted August 1, 2019 There's an awful lot of turkeys not voting for xmas in that list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 Brecon and Radnorshire's big day out 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted August 1, 2019 Moderator Share Posted August 1, 2019 34 minutes ago, Xann said: BBC Surely they can't buy it at the point of slaughter anyway, they need to be buying it at the point of butchery, there's part of the lamb that we eat (Chops, roasting joint etc) and there's the bits we export like the less palatable bits that go to the likes of Spain and France God forbid, the government didn't understand the issue, how did they... ah f**k it we all know It was an offal plan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted August 1, 2019 Moderator Share Posted August 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said: Brecon and Radnorshire's big day out Looks like the owner of the Castle Hotel in Talgarth (NF Corporation Poster twunt) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 1 minute ago, bickster said: Looks like the owner of the Castle Hotel in Talgarth (NF Corporation Poster twunt) Yeah, the bypass never came quick enough there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 25 minutes ago, bickster said: ...an offal plan... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted August 1, 2019 Author Moderator Share Posted August 1, 2019 35 minutes ago, bickster said: It was an offal plan Yet another example of woolly thinking by this Gov't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 45 minutes ago, bickster said: Here's the Independent MPs, all 16 of them, Which way would they vote? Heidi Allen - appears to be joining the Lib Dems, so will likely vote No Confidence Ian Austin - voted No Confidence in Jan when still affiliated with Labour; probably the more committed to a 2nd ref Labour become, the less likely he is to vote No Confidence Luciana Berger - currently on maternity leave; apparently not joining Lib Dems, but probably a No Confidence vote Nick Boles - No Confidence Charlie Elphicke - Confidence Frank Field - see Ian Austin; voted No Confidence as an independent in Jan so might do so again Lady Hermon - 'independent' but almost always votes with Tories; will vote Confidence Kelvin Hopkins - see Field and Austin Ivan Lewis - didn't record a vote in Jan Steven Lloyd - see Field, Austin, Hopkins Jared O'Mara - is standing down, but not sure of the timetable; cannot be relied on to attend Parliament Gavin Shuker - unclear, but more likely No Confidence at a guess Angela Smith - see Shuker Gavin Williamson - not independent, is he? Anyway, definitely Confidence Sarah Woolaston - see Allen John Woodcock - see Lewis These are all largely guesses, obviously, but for what it's worth I make that two definite Confidence votes (Elphicke and Hermon), one definite No Confidence (Boles), two very likely No Confidence (Allen, Woolaston), seven on-the-balance-of-probabilities No Confidence (Austin, Berger, Field, Hopkins, Lloyd, Shuker, Smith) and three more likely not to cast a vote (Lewis, O'Mara, Woodcock). If that's right, which it probably isn't, and assuming the Lib Dems win Brecon, then that would mean a Tory minority of 5 votes would be just enough to squeak a No Confidence through. Pretty risky though, even then; as soon as some more Tories are prepared to vote No Confidence, it becomes much easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted August 1, 2019 Moderator Share Posted August 1, 2019 1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said: Gavin Williamson - not independent, is he? Anyway, definitely Confidence He isn't currently a member of any party, he was back in the Labour Party for about three days before they suspended him again due to them realising for once what massive idiots they were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 1 minute ago, bickster said: He isn't currently a member of any party, he was back in the Labour Party for about three days before they suspended him again due to them realising for once what massive idiots they were. Ah, I understand the confusion - you're thinking of Chris Williamson of anti-semitism fame, not Gavin Williamson of giant spiders and leaking national secrets fame. Anyway, Chris Williamson would be a definite No Confidence vote. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 (edited) When I was a kid growing up it was synonymous with being a bit mental. Being 'sent to Talgarth' meant men in white coats and a straight-jacket. Due to the hospital at Bronllys. Anyway all I've really heard on the grapevine is that Chris Davies has been popping round to people's houses who have been supportive of him on the twitters 'n' that. So that's a thing in local politics now it seems. And look, it's a beautiful bit of the world and I love some of it dearly, but I had to chuckle at the stock archive picture the BBC have dragged out today Quote Brecon and Radnorshire by-election: Voters go to the polls Voters in Brecon and Radnorshire go to the polls on Thursday to elect a new member of Parliament. The seat in mid Wales became vacant as a result of the sitting MP being recalled by a petition. A total of six candidates are standing in the by-election and polling started at 07:00 BST. Voting closes at 22:00, with the result expected to be announced in the early hours of Friday morning. " The constituency, the largest by area in England and Wales, includes the Brecon Beacons National Park " I wonder how the waterfall will vote? Here's a couple of twunts in lovely Crickhowell the other day from a local rag. Does anyone else think it looks photoshopped? or is he just stood in the middle of a Zebra crossing like he doesn't know how they work? Anyway, most people I know will be voting for the new Liberal lady candidate to keep the tories out, whatever their political leanings, but then they did that last time and it didn't work. Might be a case of actually wanting the Brexit vote to rise from the UKIP one a few years ago as it's only the Tories they'll damage round there. Corbyn kind of caused a resurgence in the always inconsequential Labour vote round there last time out which was allied to the anti-liberal sentiment post Clegg, the UKIP vote fell off a cliff as the Farmers went back to the Tory fold after the referendum. I think BJ turning up in Brecon for a bit and Moggy doing the rounds in Crickhowell says a lot. Rarely will you see the 'big guns' out up there and I think the Tories are worried. They need to be able to rely on their core vote or they'll lose it and the recent Euro elections saw a lot of votes swing back the way of the Brexit types. Edited August 1, 2019 by VILLAMARV Linky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted August 1, 2019 Moderator Share Posted August 1, 2019 43 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: Ah, I understand the confusion - you're thinking of Chris Williamson of anti-semitism fame, not Gavin Williamson of giant spiders and leaking national secrets fame. Anyway, Chris Williamson would be a definite No Confidence vote. Yes apologies my brian got its Williamson idiots confused 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 25 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said: I think BJ turning up in Brecon for a bit and Moggy doing the rounds in Crickhowell says a lot. Rarely will you see the 'big guns' out up there and I think the Tories are worried. The bits I've read over the last few days suggest that they're not worried - they're resigned to it being lost. Lib Dems are 1/12 to win it. I do wonder though whether it might be another Peterborough though, when the NF Party were expected to take the seat fairly easily and then er...didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted August 1, 2019 Moderator Share Posted August 1, 2019 30 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said: When I was a kid growing up it was synonymous with being a bit mental. Being 'sent to Talgarth' meant men in white coats and a straight-jacket. Due to the hospital at Bronllys. Anyway all I've really heard on the grapevine is that Chris Davies has been popping round to people's houses who have been supportive of him on the twitters 'n' that. So that's a thing in local politics now it seems. And look, it's a beautiful bit of the world and I love some of it dearly, but I had to chuckle at the stock archive picture the BBC have dragged out today I wonder how the waterfall will vote? Here's a couple of twunts in lovely Crickhowell the other day from a local rag. Does anyone else think it looks photoshopped? or is he just stood in the middle of a Zebra crossing like he doesn't know how they work? Anyway, most people I know will be voting for the new Liberal lady candidate to keep the tories out, whatever their political leanings, but then they did that last time and it didn't work. Might be a case of actually wanting the Brexit vote to rise from the UKIP one a few years ago as it's only the Tories they'll damage round there. Corbyn kind of caused a resurgence in the always inconsequential Labour vote round there last time out which was allied to the anti-liberal sentiment post Clegg, the UKIP vote fell off a cliff as the Farmers went back to the Tory fold after the referendum. I think BJ turning up in Brecon for a bit and Moggy doing the rounds in Crickhowell says a lot. Rarely will you see the 'big guns' out up there and I think the Tories are worried. They need to be able to rely on their core vote or they'll lose it and the recent Euro elections saw a lot of votes swing back the way of the Brexit types. When I was a kid your Talgarth was my Bridgend for exactly the same reason Ah sod it I drove over that crossing only a couple of days ago, bad timing or what. Nice cafe about 50 yards further on (and yes it looks shopped - the lighting is all wrong, if it was flash his servant dwarf would have copped some of the light too) The waterfall looks like one of the one's at Ystradfellte that I used to swim in as a kid, so technically it is in the constituency I'm really not sure that sending Lord Snooty and BJ the Clown is the right idea, they seem to be exactly the wrong sort of Tories to send to Wales Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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