villan95 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 10 minutes ago, bickster said: I think that Sevanta poll is a bit of an outlier in their results as the Tory share went up 2% and Labour down 1%. It's all margin of error stuff but the previous poll was 17% lead but Sevanta and DeltaPoll are at the high end with YouGov and RedfieldWilton at the lower end. I tend to look at the regular middle ground pollsters for indications rather than the ends. YouGov and RW could be right I guess but the problem with all of them is the question How would you vote if the election was today? or what ever the question they use is... no one has really considered how they'll vote especially with regards to tactical voting, that won't come out until much later. When one is showing a 14 point lead and another a 27 point lead it does suggest one if not both are horribly wrong. Probably best to go with the average of all polls I guess. I do take more notice of Survation though who called the last 2 elections almost spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villan95 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Genie said: They also seem to think having a different person front and centre will make a difference. Again, back to the policies, they don’t seem to be able to read a room at all. They might get some of their Reform/UKIP voters back though.. Edited January 25 by villan95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted January 25 VT Supporter Share Posted January 25 8 minutes ago, Chindie said: They're being thumped in the pools because their image has become one of incompetence and looting, not because policies are particularly unpopular or their opposition is providing better policy options. Their opposition largely agrees with their policies, in the little we know of them, but they're being enacted by idiots. A cat with a red collar could beat the Tories in the current polls. Unfortunately we know they'll do rather better when the ballot boxes are counted up. On current showing they'll still lose even when the country gives them an embarrassment of votes, of course. Then we get to find out that all we've changed is put in a less blasé higher functioning management team for a couple of years. I don't think that's true at all. It may suit the narrative of "Labour are no better" but you won't see any of this Rwanda nonsense, you will see a complete reset of our relationship with Europe, you'll see a proper Manufacturing strategy, a return to land based wind turbines for the generation of the cheapest form of electricity we can make and more encouragement for Green technologies (which are the future) generally, less lining of friends pockets. You could go on but those who want Corbyn Mk2 will always just say they're no different from the Tories. If things don't go significantly better for the country and for the everyday Joe within 5 years I'll eat my hat. if they don't invest more in eg The National Health service then they'll be out on their ear in 5 years. If they show the average person that they really are better off then they'll shut the Tories down for decades. I'm sure Starmer will want a second term so just being exactly the same isn't going to do much for him. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 11 minutes ago, villan95 said: They might get some of their Reform/UKIP voters back though.. At this stage they’re just trying to get as many people on the £110k per annum for life “expenses” for being an ex-PM as possible until they’re booted out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 25 Moderator Share Posted January 25 15 minutes ago, villan95 said: They might get some of their Reform/UKIP voters back though.. Could be that rarest of things a PM that loses her seat at the next election. They would definitely have to shift her from her current seat, it's high on the danger list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villan95 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, bickster said: Could be that rarest of things a PM that loses her seat at the next election. They would definitely have to shift her from her current seat, it's high on the danger list It's not a good look if you have to change seats for fear of losing it as PM. I remember there was talk Boris might do similar but it never materialised/mattered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Are they basing this week’s wish PM on the fact she can walk whilst holding a sword? Or was it that stirring ‘stand up and fight’ speech she gave at that old people’s home? It’s probably just that if you squint and wank she looks a bit like Thatcher. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 25 Moderator Share Posted January 25 40 minutes ago, sidcow said: They think they're being destroyed in the polls because they're not right wing enough and not going far enough on the boats and Rwanda. 36 minutes ago, Genie said: Again, back to the policies, they don’t seem to be able to read a room at all. The immigration thing is their best chance of individual survival constituency by constituency. It's not about reading the room and not going far enough on immigration. It's all about personal survival for most of them. They know they are buggered (if they don't oh well) BUT the immigration issue is where they can claw votes back if they can massively reduce the effect of Reform. The other issues, there's sod all they can do, they've already ideologically f***ed everything else. All about personal survival now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted January 25 VT Supporter Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, bickster said: The immigration thing is their best chance of individual survival constituency by constituency. It's not about reading the room and not going far enough on immigration. It's all about personal survival for most of them. They know they are buggered (if they don't oh well) BUT the immigration issue is where they can claw votes back if they can massively reduce the effect of Reform. The other issues, there's sod all they can do, they've already ideologically f***ed everything else. All about personal survival now It's more that the likes of Sunak should be able to easily defend their position against the Rewmoaners by pointing to who's thrashing them in the polls when challenged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wainy316 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 11 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: if you squint and wank she looks a bit like Thatcher. Challenge accepted! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 15 minutes ago, bickster said: The immigration thing is their best chance of individual survival constituency by constituency. It's not about reading the room and not going far enough on immigration. It's all about personal survival for most of them. They know they are buggered (if they don't oh well) BUT the immigration issue is where they can claw votes back if they can massively reduce the effect of Reform. The other issues, there's sod all they can do, they've already ideologically f***ed everything else. All about personal survival now It’s like the Brexit days. Many people have been conditioned over time to believe the countries problems are because of immigration. Not the 1.1m legal ones, the 30k arriving on small boats, they’re the reason there’s no money to fix pot holes. It was all the EU in the run up to the referendum, it’s the small boats now. The result will ultimately be the same, eventually they’ll be shown up for the crooks they are. The problems are mainly because of the Tories being incompetent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mozzavfc Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 36 minutes ago, Genie said: At this stage they’re just trying to get as many people on the £110k per annum for life “expenses” for being an ex-PM as possible until they’re booted out. Plus extra set of donors get to be elevated to lords via dissolution honours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted January 25 VT Supporter Share Posted January 25 33 minutes ago, sidcow said: I don't think that's true at all. It may suit the narrative of "Labour are no better" but you won't see any of this Rwanda nonsense, you will see a complete reset of our relationship with Europe, you'll see a proper Manufacturing strategy, a return to land based wind turbines for the generation of the cheapest form of electricity we can make and more encouragement for Green technologies (which are the future) generally, less lining of friends pockets. You could go on but those who want Corbyn Mk2 will always just say they're no different from the Tories. If things don't go significantly better for the country and for the everyday Joe within 5 years I'll eat my hat. if they don't invest more in eg The National Health service then they'll be out on their ear in 5 years. If they show the average person that they really are better off then they'll shut the Tories down for decades. I'm sure Starmer will want a second term so just being exactly the same isn't going to do much for him. I don't think we've seen any of this from Labour. On Rwanda they've criticised the cost and farce of it, but they aren't against the fundamentals of the plan. They want to do a similar thing with offshore processing of asylum claims - one of the only things they've actually been reasonably firm on with immigration, where the position is basically 'middle England doesn't like it so we don't much like it' and move quickly on to the next question. This is all wishful thinking. The country is on a track, Labour might take a slight detour or pump the brakes once in a while, maybe they'll open a curtain here and close a window there, but the train is going in the same direction. I think Streeting just the other day was espousing the NHS much change. We all know what that means. The destination is the same. The words removed are in charge. The skin suit might change, but the policy is fundamentally the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, Chindie said: They're being thumped in the pools No running / no diving / no heavy petting / no thumping etc. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted January 25 VT Supporter Share Posted January 25 We can only hope Starmer drowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 25 Moderator Share Posted January 25 52 minutes ago, Chindie said: They want to do a similar thing with offshore processing of asylum claims As far as I'm aware, that's in France, you know before the small boats stage Also Starmer mentioned that he wanted to tackle the gangs in joint operations with law enforcement across Europe Both things this government could easily do but show no signs of wanting to... because Europe It is a significantly different approach 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted January 25 VT Supporter Share Posted January 25 32 minutes ago, bickster said: As far as I'm aware, that's in France, you know before the small boats stage Also Starmer mentioned that he wanted to tackle the gangs in joint operations with law enforcement across Europe Both things this government could easily do but show no signs of wanting to... because Europe It is a significantly different approach You know, thats not really the point. Theres a moral issue, the rather grim view that because we're on an island we can hold a stiff arm outstretched with a long pole held to keep dirty foreigners away. You know, acting like we've got no humanity. It isn't all that different. It can be wrapped in nicer paper, you know, but it's still a turd. And thats the issue really. Starmer doesn't give a flying ****, you know, about the reasons the Rwanda plan is wrong on a human level, he cares thats it's expensive and impractical, as if, you know, he'd be fine with it if Rwanda was at the other end of a big tube he could kick asylum seekers in to. You know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinker Posted January 25 VT Supporter Share Posted January 25 I'm not sure why Starmer would want to get dragged in with the misinformation on the little boat immigration influx, the whole thing is built on lies. 40,000 a year, it's less than 5% of immigration. It's pretty obvious that this tory government has been the most disastrous political party we have ever had (in my lifetime), the Financial wheel of misfortune Truss spun alone was enough. Add the ppe scandal , hs2 debacle, brexit, ready made deal fiasco, covid parties etc etc. To think any party, even the raving looney party would be the same is pushing it to the extremes, maybe Putin would be worse? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 25 Moderator Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, Chindie said: You know, thats not really the point. Theres a moral issue, the rather grim view that because we're on an island we can hold a stiff arm outstretched with a long pole held to keep dirty foreigners away. You know, acting like we've got no humanity. It isn't all that different. It can be wrapped in nicer paper, you know, but it's still a turd. And thats the issue really. Starmer doesn't give a flying ****, you know, about the reasons the Rwanda plan is wrong on a human level, he cares thats it's expensive and impractical, as if, you know, he'd be fine with it if Rwanda was at the other end of a big tube he could kick asylum seekers in to. You know. That reads like you’d just let every person in that wants to come here regardless? There's what moral issue exactly? I really don’t see how processing genuine asylum seekers in France before they cross the channel is the same thing as Rwanda at all I also don’t see the Tory party wanting to tackle the evil of the people smuggling gangs with European law enforcement in joint co-operative action I'm baffled as to why you think it's remotely the same and out of curiosity, what would your solution be? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishywashy Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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