chrisp65 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Genie said: That is based on the assumption that all those that stayed away in the by elections were Tory voters and every Labour voter from last time came out again. I don’t think we can extrapolate that from those election votes. Hence my saying it was in crude terms. I mean, yes, it could be that Labour lost thousands of previously Labour voters and replaced them with ex tory voters. Some might even say that’s the plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted February 21 Moderator Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: The last couple of by elections which Labour have won, they’ve actually aggregated less votes than when they lost. It was the collapse of the tory vote wot won it. Now, they are by elections. But for all the scandal, nobody switched to Labour (in crude terms). That doesn’t mean Labour won’t have a massive majority in Westminster, it’s just not quite the ringing endorsement it might first appear to be. This really isn't what happened. Labour got more votes in Wellingborough than they did in the 2019 election on a massively reduced turnout 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted February 21 VT Supporter Share Posted February 21 8 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: The last couple of by elections which Labour have won, they’ve actually aggregated less votes than when they lost. It was the collapse of the tory vote wot won it. Now, they are by elections. But for all the scandal, nobody switched to Labour (in crude terms). That doesn’t mean Labour won’t have a massive majority in Westminster, it’s just not quite the ringing endorsement it might first appear to be. They’re by-elections. Like I said, all the polls predict a significant increase in labour votes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 If national polling remains as it were I'd be very confident that Labour win those byelection seats with several thousand more voters in the general election, the number of absolute voters in a byelection vs a GE isn't just crude, it's a completely pointless metric. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, bickster said: This really isn't what happened. Labour got more votes in Wellingborough than they did in the 2019 election on a massively reduced turnout Isn’t it? I’ve just checked again, last couple of by elections: 2024 Wellingborough = 13,844 votes 2024 Kingswood = 11,176 votes whereas at the previous vote: 2019 Wellingborough = 13,737 2019 Kingswood = 16,492 By my maths, that has them down by over 5,000 votes? Incidentally, they won Kingswood with their lowest ever vote total in that constituency. I don’t doubt for a second they are absolutely placed for a massive return of MP’s in the general election. It’ll be down to the first past the post system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I think a complete wipeout for the tories is somewhat exaggerated. Come election day the grey army will still shuffle out and vote tory even if they have been complaining for five years. If the Daily Mail tells them to do so, they will. I expect they will end up in the low 200's for seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 12 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Isn’t it? I’ve just checked again, last couple of by elections: 2024 Wellingborough = 13,844 votes 2024 Kingswood = 11,176 votes whereas at the previous vote: 2019 Wellingborough = 13,737 2019 Kingswood = 16,492 By my maths, that has them down by over 5,000 votes? Incidentally, they won Kingswood with their lowest ever vote total in that constituency. I don’t doubt for a second they are absolutely placed for a massive return of MP’s in the general election. It’ll be down to the first past the post system. I just looked at Wellingborough, Labour got roughly the same amount of votes despite the overall turnout being over 40% lower. 2019: 52k votes 2024: 30,145 votes Youre comparing apples with bananas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Genie said: I just looked at Wellingborough, Labour got roughly the same amount of votes despite the overall turnout being over 40% lower. 2019: 52k votes 2024: 30,145 votes Youre comparing apples with bananas. I have repeatedly said I’m comparing a by election with a GE. I’m not sure what else I can do? I’ve already caveated that it was a by election, that Labour will likely have a massive majority at the next GE, and that my statement that Labour didn’t gain new voters was crude. I have conceded that Labour may well have lost Labour voters but gained tory voters. Also, that the Labour vote in Kingswood was their lowest ever in any election. Not sure I’ve said anything wrong or got any maths wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted February 21 Moderator Share Posted February 21 21 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Incidentally, they won Kingswood with their lowest ever vote total in that constituency. I have no idea what you imagine this means Chris, the turnout was about 45% down on its statistical mean. It's also a seat that will not exist at the next election (which will further reduce that turnout given the timing) It's also been a bell weather seat for years, it really does tend to vote with the current national trend, it's not an ingrained Tory seat there are lots of swing voters here, voters that can and do change their minds It is however nearly half of JRMs constituency at the next election Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meregreen Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 (edited) 1 hour ago, chrisp65 said: The last couple of by elections which Labour have won, they’ve actually aggregated less votes than when they lost. It was the collapse of the tory vote wot won it. Now, they are by elections. But for all the scandal, nobody switched to Labour (in crude terms). That doesn’t mean Labour won’t have a massive majority in Westminster, it’s just not quite the ringing endorsement it might first appear to be. The turnout at the recent by elections has been in line with historic by election turnouts. There is absolutely no evidence that those that didn’t vote are shy Tories, non at all. Just as likely that given Labour were expected to win, that Labour voters also thought their vote wasn’t needed. The result, a huge swing to Labour, is most definitely a ringing endorsement. Edited February 21 by meregreen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted February 21 VT Supporter Share Posted February 21 15 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: I have repeatedly said I’m comparing a by election with a GE. I’m not sure what else I can do? I’ve already caveated that it was a by election, that Labour will likely have a massive majority at the next GE, and that my statement that Labour didn’t gain new voters was crude. I have conceded that Labour may well have lost Labour voters but gained tory voters. Also, that the Labour vote in Kingswood was their lowest ever in any election. Not sure I’ve said anything wrong or got any maths wrong. Everything you've said is accurate, I'm just not sure why any of it is relevant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 9 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Not sure I’ve said anything wrong or got any maths wrong. You've probably not said anything wrong, but any "endorsement" will be judged by the number of MPs returned and nothing else. 1 hour ago, chrisp65 said: That doesn’t mean Labour won’t have a massive majority in Westminster, it’s just not quite the ringing endorsement it might first appear to be. Nobody in December 2019 was caveating the 80 seat Tory majority with "well, actually it's not really that impressive to go from May's 13.6m votes to Johnson's 13.9m. Look at Jo Swinson weeping in the corner in happiness at adding four times that number of new votes to the Lib Dem total from last time..." Or take 1997. Blair's majority was created by the Tory vote dropping from 14m in 1992 to 9m in 1997. In the run-up to that election, all the same "lack of enthusiasm for Labour" opinions were being had. All forgotten the moment they doubled their number of MPs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meregreen Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Recent polling, indicates that the electorate are turning away from tax cuts in favour of increased public spending. That gives me hope that this country is finding its soul again. It’s also hopefully, going to sound the death knell for the Party that.knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing. General Election can’t come soon enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 27 minutes ago, bickster said: I have no idea what you imagine this means Chris, the turnout was about 45% down on its statistical mean. It's also a seat that will not exist at the next election (which will further reduce that turnout given the timing) It's also been a bell weather seat for years, it really does tend to vote with the current national trend, it's not an ingrained Tory seat there are lots of swing voters here, voters that can and do change their minds It is however nearly half of JRMs constituency at the next election I’d just become so fascinated at the reaction to some pretty basic numbers I thought I’d throw some more in! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, meregreen said: Recent polling, indicates that the electorate are turning away from tax cuts in favour of increased public spending. That gives me hope that this country is finding its soul again. It’s also hopefully, going to sound the death knell for the Party that.knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing. I reckon there is a lot of merging between the popularity of ideas and popularity of those promoting them. I bet that for a lot of the country "tax cuts" are that thing that Liz Truss wanted that blew up the economy. And are therefore A Bad Thing, then hearing the also unpopular Jeremy Hunt talk about them mean that both he and they become less popular. I've not checked this, but I bet the popularity of Brexit as a policy and the popularity of the Tories would probably track each other on a graph. Are the Tories becoming less popular because Brexit is a shit-show, or is Brexit becoming less popular because it's synonymous with those Tories that people also hate for a load of other reasons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 (edited) 44 minutes ago, ml1dch said: I reckon there is a lot of merging between the popularity of ideas and popularity of those promoting them. I bet that for a lot of the country "tax cuts" are that thing that Liz Truss wanted that blew up the economy. And are therefore A Bad Thing, then hearing the also unpopular Jeremy Hunt talk about them mean that both he and they become less popular. I've not checked this, but I bet the popularity of Brexit as a policy and the popularity of the Tories would probably track each other on a graph. Are the Tories becoming less popular because Brexit is a shit-show, or is Brexit becoming less popular because it's synonymous with those Tories that people also hate for a load of other reasons? Most governments live and die by the conclusion if you feel better or worse off than the last time you went to the polling station. I would say most people feel less well off and less secure than in 2019 regardless of whether they wanted to 'get Brexit done' or opposed it. Plus the endless scandals, changes of prime ministers, and general f**kwittery, the general feeling is that they have been in power for too long and need to go. Edited February 21 by The Fun Factory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAMARV Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 8 hours ago, Genie said: And the public would then reject him like that last few leaders the Tory members have picked. I seem to remeber this thread saying the same thing about Boris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 35 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said: I seem to remeber this thread saying the same thing about Boris Really? Boris was quite popular before people expected anything of him (not necessarily on VT, in general). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 (edited) Dear oh dear, Truss has been given a microphone in the US Quote Conservatives in both the US and UK need a "bigger bazooka" to fight the left, former Prime Minister Liz Truss has told an event in Maryland. "Unless conservatives become more active in speaking out... Western civilisation is doomed," Ms Truss said. She was speaking at the biggest annual gathering of conservatives in the US. link Western civilisation is doomed, said the person who did more damage in 6 weeks that anyone could imagine. 3 of those parliament was shut down for the Queens death. The reference to a bazooka, in America… Edited February 23 by Genie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted February 23 VT Supporter Share Posted February 23 1 hour ago, Genie said: Dear oh dear, Truss has been given a microphone in the US link Western civilisation is doomed, said the person who did more damage in 6 weeks that anyone could imagine. 3 of those parliament was shut down for the Queens death. The reference to a bazooka, in America… It's unbelievable isn't it. 14 years in power and they're thwarted by lefties. They spout crap about others about exactly what it is they are/do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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