The Chairman Mao resembling, Monarchy hating, threat to Britain, Labour Party thread

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

3 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

I still expect a comfortable labour win

November 2022

Lab 52%  Con 22%

April 2023

Lab 45 %  Con 29 %

Win,  almost certain,  comfortable,  not so sure.

They (Lab) can easily still lose this.  History is not on their side I suspect,  how many times have they actually smashed it in the last 50 years at the G/E.

Why it might change (Few little guesses)

• Inflation will slowly come down further,  allowing for final agreements with strikers and pay disputes.
• The inflation reduction will inject a bit of growth to the GDP and this will slowly rise as the GE gets closer.
• Like it or not,  Britain loves a day off and a Coronation, mood changer.
• Ukraine will end at some point this year and the British Government will,  rightly so ride a bit of a wave for that (Weapons',  leading support nation in terms of no hesitation)
  • Ukraine will win IMO and smash through the front line as soon as the troops are in place (Return from training) with the new MBT's.  Once through RU are done.
• I 100% believe the attack adverts on Sunak backfired as a small example.  They may do more of this stuff.
• Lab shadow bench as a collective interview badly,  they get battered on BBC breakfast FFS.
• As soon as Starmer starts with the "We have had X government for Y years,  let me have a go please" type stuff,  they are well on the way to losing it.

Just a few thoughts.

 

[Demitri_C]

3 hours ago, bickster said:

Says who? personally I think that would be a good result

As I see it, it's the only way to get electoral reform on the agenda. Massive majorities for either Labour or Tory will not bring about electoral reform

 

So we have to piss around again with uncertainty again then wait for a potential collapse of a coalition again between parties. You need a sole party i think

3 hours ago, ml1dch said:

And considering another option is "Tory majority", it's hard to see how a hung Parliament can be described as the worst possible result.

Just as bad

[bickster]

17 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

4 hours ago, bickster said:

 

So we have to piss around again with uncertainty again then wait for a potential collapse of a coalition again between parties. You need a sole party i think

When did we piss around with uncertainty due to a coalition? The 2010 coalition government went full term

I don't envisage a supply and confidence deal between the Tories and the Unionists again

[DCJonah]

2 hours ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

November 2022

Lab 52%  Con 22%

April 2023

Lab 45 %  Con 29 %

Win,  almost certain,  comfortable,  not so sure.

They (Lab) can easily still lose this.  History is not on their side I suspect,  how many times have they actually smashed it in the last 50 years at the G/E.

Why it might change (Few little guesses)

• Inflation will slowly come down further,  allowing for final agreements with strikers and pay disputes.
• The inflation reduction will inject a bit of growth to the GDP and this will slowly rise as the GE gets closer.
• Like it or not,  Britain loves a day off and a Coronation, mood changer.
• Ukraine will end at some point this year and the British Government will,  rightly so ride a bit of a wave for that (Weapons',  leading support nation in terms of no hesitation)
  • Ukraine will win IMO and smash through the front line as soon as the troops are in place (Return from training) with the new MBT's.  Once through RU are done.
• I 100% believe the attack adverts on Sunak backfired as a small example.  They may do more of this stuff.
• Lab shadow bench as a collective interview badly,  they get battered on BBC breakfast FFS.
• As soon as Starmer starts with the "We have had X government for Y years,  let me have a go please" type stuff,  they are well on the way to losing it.

Just a few thoughts.

 

I don't know what's wrong with people. 

How the **** can anyone genuinely believe voting tory again is the right move?

If the Tories win the next GE, I genuinely think I'm **** off to another country. 

[Demitri_C]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

When did we piss around with uncertainty due to a coalition? The 2010 coalition government went full term

I don't envisage a supply and confidence deal between the Tories and the Unionists again

There was so much in fighting  between the tories and lib dems. Do we really want to go through all that again?

If labour get a majority hang parliament? Who they going with the lib dems? Snp or even worse those psychos in the green party?

[Seat68]

12 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

There was so much in fighting  between the tories and lib dems. Do we really want to go through all that again?

If labour get a majority hang parliament? Who they going with the lib dems? Snp or even worse those psychos in the green party?

You still bitter about not driving your car?  They have ten bills they would like to introduce, on their website and not a single one is psycho, or ludicrous

[Chindie]

Given the Greens have a single MP and aren't particularly likely to become a overnight powerhouse in Parliament, I doubt a coalition with the Greens would be either here nor there.

The Lib Dems would put a coalition with Labour as their least desired path to power, and **** knows what the SNP does come an election.

I'm still of the belief that the Tories will do much better than their polling suggests. The Labour party still has the whiff of things about it that normal people don't like and still remember, and so much of England does love a Tory vote in the ways that matter sadly.

Not that I particularly like this Labour party either. They're the least worst option, but it's not like they're the shining beacon of hopeful change. They're just less obviously bastards in most respects. So far.

[Demitri_C]

1 minute ago, Chindie said:

Given the Greens have a single MP and aren't particularly likely to become a overnight powerhouse in Parliament, I doubt a coalition with the Greens would be either here nor there.

The Lib Dems would put a coalition with Labour as their least desired path to power, and **** knows what the SNP does come an election.

I'm still of the belief that the Tories will do much better than their polling suggests. The Labour party still has the whiff of things about it that normal people don't like and still remember, and so much of England does love a Tory vote in the ways that matter sadly.

Not that I particularly like this Labour party either. They're the least worst option, but it's not like they're the shining beacon of hopeful change. They're just less obviously bastards in most respects. So far.

But thats assuming the greens dont get any more (unlikely though i must admit)

It would prob be a labour - lib dem coalition if that were to happen as only chance lib dem of getting into power

Im not convinced the tories will do better but i can understand why you feel that way. The council elections wrre a disaster for them

[ml1dch]

5 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

It would prob be a labour - lib dem coalition if that were to happen as only chance lib dem of getting into power

I'd be surprised if the Lib Dems entered a formal coalition with anyone in the foreseeable future given what the 2010-15 experience did to their popularity. 

I still think that a hung Parliament is unlikely unless both the Tories AND the SNP get their act together, and it's hard to see both happening. If it does happen, I'd expect Labour to try and and govern as a minority and another election relatively quickly. 

[bickster]

38 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

If labour get a majority hang parliament? Who they going with the lib dems? Snp or even worse those psychos in the green party?

In reality, the LibDems. Definitely not the SNP as Labour are a Unionist Party in that sense and the Greens will only have 1 MP

And its because it has to be the LibDems that there is any chance of electoral reform to move away from a FPTP voting system.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

18 hours ago, DCJonah said:

I don't know what's wrong with people. 

How the **** can anyone genuinely believe voting tory again is the right move?

If the Tories win the next GE, I genuinely think I'm **** off to another country. 

I forgot one thing,  if the Tories get anywhere with the boats and appealing to a certain section of their fan base then its going to be even close.

If they can get Labour into murky waters and appear unconvincing and then announce something that passes for progress in their mind,   anything could happen. 

[Seat68]

Starmer just needs to stay away from Russian hats and bacon sandwiches, because that's what is important.

[tinker]

Starmer needs to concentrate on what the Tories have done to the economy. We still hear about Brown's gold fiasco now, Truss should be pulled over the coals,  who voted for her in the Tories, who agreed with her policies are the awkward questions that should be asked. Letting them set the agenda with boats and such crap is damaging. Every refugee could be given a million pound and it still wouldn't be as expensive as Truss and her mental blip.

Edited April 14, 2023 by tinker

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

1 hour ago, Seat68 said:

Starmer just needs to stay away from Russian hats and bacon sandwiches, because that's what is important.

Falling over in the sea is not a good luck either.

[Seat68]

45 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

Falling over in the sea is not a good luck either.

He needs locking up for a year, some might say for much longer, keep him out of the public eye and its in the bag.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

1 hour ago, Seat68 said:

keep him out of the public eye

Not sure he has ever been in it to be fair.  Keep his head down and who knows.

[Chindie]

He only hangs around deserted high streets in fairness.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

3 hours ago, tinker said:

Starmer needs to concentrate on what the Tories have done to the economy

I disagree,  its too much of a moving target.  What if it improves ? Then hope it goes wrong in election week.

A fixed target such as Health is the way too go IMO.  It cant be improved in time and it effects a lot of people.

[bickster]

4 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

I disagree,  its too much of a moving target.  What if it improves ? Then hope it goes wrong in election week.

A fixed target such as Health is the way too go IMO.  It cant be improved in time and it effects a lot of people.

Same with crime, they can't fix that quickly either

[blandy]

18 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

I disagree,  its too much of a moving target.  What if it improves ? Then hope it goes wrong in election week.

A fixed target such as Health is the way too go IMO.  It cant be improved in time and it effects a lot of people.

Everything’s a kind of moving target. I’m not disagreeing with you, by the way.

I think it’s like this. It’s a simplification, but anyway:  once upon a time loads of normal working class people voted labour and educated professionals voted Tory. But now, to a large extent that’s swapped round. Mainly because of Brexit and the messaging about Brexit. At least that’s how it was last time out.  Since then Brexit is mostly done (very badly, but done, nonetheless).  Somewhat bizarrely, both parties seem to be chasing the votes of the older, northern, Brexit voting types and ignoring the educated professionals and liberal (small L) graduates.  I guess the tories think “we need to hang on to the red wall seats, or were utterly ****, and Labour think “we need to win those seats back, or we’re out of office for another 5 years”.

But the thing is, to me at least, ignoring all the other voters is a mistake. I hope Labour will start to put out stuff which will ensure the Tories are out, and that means stuff which connects not just with the red wall, but much more widely. It’s why multiple, smart, posters on here rage that Starmer is just a slightly less bad Tory and so on. They’ve not seen anything that says to them “vote Labour because…this or that will be better and different and fairer and..etc”

So going back to everything being a moving target, Labour can’t win by statistics, or by pledges about the economy or whatever, because that’s just 2 parties competing over promises which are not in their hands to keep, like “we’ll make the economy grow more”…”no, we’ll make the economy grow more, than them”…”no you won’t “..”yes we will”.

The tories are all set on culture war crap and claiming Sunak is honest and gets things done. Labour are currently avoiding culture war stuff (which is tactically the right approach) and aiming at 13 years of mess. But no one is saying how things will get better for all the people who aren’t working class northerners who don’t like foreigners.

I think Labour will do that, but they’re holding back on doing so, because the Tories will either steal their policies, or have their propaganda rags tear into them if they don’t want to steal them.

I guess after the local elections we’ll have more of an idea whether the next GE will be next spring (if the tories do well in them), or next autumn (2024), if Labour and the LDs do well in them. Then we’ll get an idea as to when Labour will start to roll out their policies.