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What is the total transfer value of this Villa squad?


Con
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Estimating the value of Villa's playing assets  

81 members have voted

  1. 1. What is your total estimated transfer value NOW for the 21 players in the table below?

    • £ 80,000,000 - 100,000,000
    • £ 100,000,000 - 120,000,000
    • £ 120,000,000 - 140,000,000
    • £ 140,000,000 - 160,000,000
      0
    • £ 160,000,000 - 180,000,000
      0
    • £ 180,000,000 - 200,000,000
    • £ 60,000,000 - 80,000,000


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NOTE: Do not include in your valuation Bent, Given, Ireland, Hutton, N'Zogbia - only the names of the top 21 players shown in the table below.

 

I get the impression from Hairyhands post that the overall amount we spend on wages won't increase significantly in future until the player asset values rise further.

 

This on the theory that we should not spend on wages more than the team is worth - which is what happened until the end of the O'Neill era - because it is money down the drain, and in the long run if you keep throwing money away it will weaken your position in the league.

 

So if we can sell players for profit in the future - if the resell value of the team is constantly increasing relative to the wage level - we can spend that extra money on wage increases in the present. 

 

This is a more sustainable financial approach for staying in the Premier League and eventually competing higher up the table.

 

 

Example 1: we bought Benteke for £7 million. He is now worth £25 million. This means we have £18 million extra to spend over the 3 years left on his contract (because we will eventually sell for £25 million and so can spend the difference on wages). £18 million is £6 million per year, or one annual salary worth £115,000 per week.

 

Example 2: we bought Westwood for £1.5 million and although he's still nowhere near the most famous Westwood when you google his surname (Vivenne, Lee and Tim knock him off page one) he's probably at least doubled in value to £3 million with his experience and performance level in this league.

 

If he has 3 years left on his contract, that's £1.5 million extra for wages, 500k a year, or one annual salary worth £10,000 per week, which is what a lot of our first XI is earning right now.

 

 

The poll is then: what is the current Villa side worth? Intention is for me or someone to do an equivalent poll at the end of the season to see if our valuation of the top 21 squad players has changed.

 

 

Here's the Villa team (table copied from whoscored) you have to value:

 

 

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Edited by Con
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Here are my valuations:

 

Guzan - 8

Westwood - 4

Delph - 8

Weimann - 7

El Ahmadi - 3

Clark - 9

Vlaar - 5

Luna - 1.5

Agbonlahor - 12 

Baker - 4

Bacuna - 2

Benteke - 25

Lowton - 5

Kozak - 7

Tonev - 500k

Sylla - 500k

Albrighton - 3

Herd - 1.5

Okore - 4

Bowery - 500k

Helenius - 500k

 
 
Total: £111,000,000
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If you're talking about the amount other clubs would be willing to buy them for then I think you are valuating them too high.

Guzan - 7

Westwood - 3

Delph - 5

Weimann - 3

El Ahmadi - 1

Clark - 5

Vlaar - 5

Luna - 0.5

Agbonlahor - 5

Baker - 1.5

Bacuna - 1

Benteke - 25

Lowton - 3

Kozak - 5

Tonev - 500k

Sylla - 0

Albrighton - 3

Herd - 0

Okore - 5

Bowery - 0

Helenius - 1

My problem with this is that I don't think clubs would operate in such a way. They won't speculate on selling price and then decide what to do from there. They don't value players that way. Maybe in the managers mind he can fiddle about it and argue that his players are worth more than they were bought for, so he can justify squeezing the budget a bit because there is something to cover the gap if things went tits up.

Anyways, from what I've understood the value of a player is handled in pretty much the same way as when a company buys a piece of equipment. Costs from purchase and maintenance are added up and divided by years, then it's written off as each year passes. If the player renews his contract the new cost are added to the remaining value and divided by the length of the new contract. It's merely a number to make sense of the books and has no real resemblance to what us fans perceive as the value of a player, or what other clubs would offer if that player was available.

So for Aston Villa the team value would be very low seeing as there are mostly cheap signings on low wages alongside a bunch of academy players.

Maybe I'm wrong in this, but I doubt the club value their players speculatively and then use the total of that to decide the wage budget.

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Here are my valuations:

Guzan - 7

Westwood - 3

Delph - 5

Weimann - 5

El Ahmadi - 2.5

Clark - 4

Vlaar - 5

Luna - 1.5

Agbonlahor - 8

Baker - 2.5

Bacuna - 2.5

Benteke - 20

Lowton - 4

Kozak - 6

Tonev - 1

Sylla - 1

Albrighton - 2

Herd - 1

Okore - 4

Bowery - 750k

Helenius - 1

Total: £86,750,000

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I think your poll needs a £60-80m option.

 

Now added.

 

Fire away everyone. I think you are undervaluing the team though. Remember we got £2-3 million when we sold Bannan where as some people were valuing him at about zero.

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Instinctively went for the lowest option, but did the math and I believe we are in the 100 to 120 million range (just).  Young British players go at a premium regardless of how good they are (the example of Bannan was a good one) and we have lots of young and British.  I have moved my vota accordingly.

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I think your poll needs a £60-80m option.

Now added.

Fire away everyone. I think you are undervaluing the team though. Remember we got £2-3 million when we sold Bannan where as some people were valuing him at about zero.

Maybe so but I can't see anyone realistically paying £9m for Ciaran Clark or £12m for Gabby

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Guzan - £1

Westwood - 24p

Delph - 97p

Weimann - 70p

El Ahmadi - 38p

Clark - 9p

Vlaar - 50p

Luna - 1.5p

Agbonlahor - £1.50

Baker - 4 penny farthings

Bacuna - 2p

Benteke - £5

Lowton - 5p

Kozak - 7p

Tonev - a bag of hamster shit

Sylla - 5p

Albrighton - 30p

Herd - 1p

Okore - 40p

Bowery - a bag of ammonia

Helenius - 5p

Total: £?

Spot on.

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If you're talking about the amount other clubs would be willing to buy them for then I think you are valuating them too high.

Guzan - 7

Westwood - 3

Delph - 5

Weimann - 3

El Ahmadi - 1

Clark - 5

Vlaar - 5

Luna - 0.5

Agbonlahor - 5

Baker - 1.5

Bacuna - 1

Benteke - 25

Lowton - 3

Kozak - 5

Tonev - 500k

Sylla - 0

Albrighton - 3

Herd - 0

Okore - 5

Bowery - 0

Helenius - 1

My problem with this is that I don't think clubs would operate in such a way. They won't speculate on selling price and then decide what to do from there. They don't value players that way. Maybe in the managers mind he can fiddle about it and argue that his players are worth more than they were bought for, so he can justify squeezing the budget a bit because there is something to cover the gap if things went tits up.

Anyways, from what I've understood the value of a player is handled in pretty much the same way as when a company buys a piece of equipment. Costs from purchase and maintenance are added up and divided by years, then it's written off as each year passes. If the player renews his contract the new cost are added to the remaining value and divided by the length of the new contract. It's merely a number to make sense of the books and has no real resemblance to what us fans perceive as the value of a player, or what other clubs would offer if that player was available.

So for Aston Villa the team value would be very low seeing as there are mostly cheap signings on low wages alongside a bunch of academy players.

Maybe I'm wrong in this, but I doubt the club value their players speculatively and then use the total of that to decide the wage budget.

 

 

Hairyhands said this... 

 

When he took over the football club, there was few, if indeed any, who could actually be sold for decent money. The re-sale value of the squad was non-existent. On top of that, there were a large group of players earning incredible money without getting anywhere close to justifying it. So his first task was to try and reduce the wage bill dramatically and replace those players with younger players who have the potential to get better

 

 

 

I was reading into this and assuming if we gradually increase the value of the squad buying young and hungry players at £50 million when we sell them for £100 million we'll have £50 million in wages to spend on better young and hungry players.

 

The trick with this strategy is being able to do it and stay in the Premier League.

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