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KMitch

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Everything posted by KMitch

  1. Yeah, I see him more as an opportunity signing for ~20 million pounds if Valencia are relegated. He's better than both Donk/Chambers with the ball and going forward, but not defensively. I think based on the profile of players we're being linked to abroad both in January and now, we're after a couple of different profiles of players. Fast/strong forwards/Strikers who can start immediately (Thuram, Dembele, Luiz Henrique, etc.) High work rate technical midfielders who can pass and start for us immediately (Guendouzi, Pote, Otavio, etc.) Young technically gifted players with a high ceiling and top flight experience who need time to develop (Almeida, Lee, Nico Williams, Ibrahima Bamba)
  2. Valencia has been the La Liga team I've always had a soft spot for over the years, but I haven't watched many of their games recently because their ownership is straight up asset stripping their club and it's likely they'll be relegated this season and quickly tumble down the football pyramid. Their two best players are Jose Gaya (LB) and Almeida, but they're a horrific watch at the moment because Valencia have gone through more manager changes than Watford and the squad is lopsided and their confidence is shot. Almeida is a deep lying midfielder who keeps things ticking over with short passes out wide/forward, while has the vision/passing range for pinging balls into the channels or through balls into the striker when the opportunity opens up. Has a powerful long shot on him and is good at retaining the ball under pressure for his small stature but he isn't physically imposing enough to really make his mark on any of the games I've seen. I will say that he most closely resembles Douglas Luiz of anyone in the Villa squad, but isn't as good as Dougie defensively. Almeida would take some time to adapt to the Premier League, but he would be a good signing for depth and the future. Valencia is a mess financially and will probably sell anyone they get an offer for this summer if they go down.
  3. Same here. His form has really dropped off since January as well.
  4. I don't see how a team without a manager is racing to sign a player or what player in their right mind would sign for a club without a manager? How many of you have taken a job just to have your boss leave for another opportunity or get the sack just to find the new boss doesn't particularly like you or wants someone else in the role? The media can make up all they like, but I doubt any player will sign for a club that doesn't have a manager assuring the player he's wanted.
  5. I love a good conspiracy, but this is downright hilarious... Nobody is paying the media off or trying to knock our players' confidence. People just started to notice that we're in the European conversation this past week. I love how we're playing right now but anyone who has watched all our games this season knows we've been lucky to win as many as we have. I'm not trying to downplay what we've achieved so far, but we have the hardest run in of all the teams in the Prem and we'll need every ounce of luck we can get to finish above 8th. My heart wants us to win every one of our last games and have us finish 4th, but my head tells me we'll most likely finish 8th and I'll still be over the moon at what Emery has accomplished so far.
  6. Not really... I've seen Mallorca a few times this season and he's more like a poor man's David Silva who plays as a 10 or out wide left. Strong set piece taker, fantastic touch and dribbling ability in tight spaces, but physically small and not very rapid. Mallorca is known for their defensive football and don't commit a lot of players forward in their attack, but he's been their star player in the games I've watched this season.
  7. I think some here are missing the point of xG/xGA. They're "leading indicators" and are used to look forward and predict outcomes/events as opposed to "lagging indicators" which look backward on whether or not the intended result was achieved. Example: If someone wants to lose weight and the only thing they did differently was look at their scale every morning and record their weight, they might get some success just from paying more attention to the scale and being more conscious of their eating habits. On the other hand, if you track the amount of calories you intake and the amount of calories you burn every day through exercise and keep them under your daily maintenance calories needed, you'll have a lot of success losing weight in the long term. The leading indicators for losing weight are calories in minus calories burned compared to your daily maintenance target. The lagging indicator is your body weight every morning when you get on the scale. Translating this to football terms, if you consistently create more quality chances and reduce those of your opponent, you're going to win more games in the long term. xG/xGA looks at the quality of the chances created and looks at how likely the team is to score or concede based on them. That being said, football isn't as cut and dry as the thermodynamics of weight loss. There are a lot more factors which go into winning/losing games than purely xG/xGA and luck pays a huge part in winning or losing games. You can lose to some incredibly unlucky goals or mistakes, just like you can win when the opposition has dominated the game statistically but doesn't finish off their chances. Weight loss isn't like that. In weight loss with all things considered normal, it's impossible to do everything right mathematically one day, then step on the scale and gain weight the following morning. Thermodynamics doesn't have an element of randomness to it like that. On a long enough timeline (30+ games), the randomness/luck element of football is reduced significantly in the data and xG/xGA/xPTS is a good predictor of how teams should fare going forward. Just looking at one specific game where the xG/xGA/xPTS didn't match up to the result doesn't mean the system is broken or doesn't work. Hell, if it was that good of a predictor of games and an exact science, then the betting market would be completely broken and there would be no point in actually playing the games at all. What does this mean for Villa and our current situation: Yes, we're over performing at the moment. No, this run of form isn't going to last forever. No, Emeryball isn't breaking football statistics and the xG/xGA/XPTS system. We're largely overperforming the statistics right now because Watkins and Martinez are in great form and are skewing both statistics in our favor. At some point they'll drop off back to normal. We should enjoy the ride this season and not expect European football, because we're incredibly lucky to even be considered in the conversation at this point in the season. We still need to move forward with upgrading the squad with depth all around this summer, regardless of the improvement in form some players have shown under Emery so far.
  8. He has to take 2 years off sometime in the next 6 years to do his mandatory military service requirement. He would have won the exception that Heung-Min Son and the rest of the Korean national team did when they took gold in the 2018 Asian games, but he declined his invitation to join the squad to focus on his club football at the time. He can either go now or wait until he's in his prime...
  9. I've seen two Mallorca games this season and they're very good defensively but struggle to create and finish chances. They'd be relegation candidates if their defense wasn't so good. That said, Kang-In Lee stood out as their best player in both games. Small, not very rapid, but works hard in the press and can pick a pass. Reminds me of a very raw David Silva, but he didn't give me the impression he's ready to take the Premier League by storm. I'm alright with the signing if he's cheap and we consider him one for the future. I have a feeling he's looking for a club to pay him and keep him under contract while he takes care of his Korean military service requirement.
  10. Tammy has seriously injured his shoulder... Probably a dislocation.
  11. Ings scores for West Ham... Gent are caught napping on a very quick throw in behind their defense which is squared to an unmarked Ings to tap into a wide open net. Schoolboy defending... My god...
  12. West Ham playing poorly in Belgium. Get gifted a goal when Gent's keeper drops the ball onto a West Ham player and it goes into the net. Happened to be dropped onto his hand, even though he knew nothing about it, and it's called back. Roma get gifted a penalty for a soft foul on Tammy, but Pellegrini hit the post... Pretty boring games today, I have to say.
  13. Had to buy at Premier League market prices? None of them... There are better options abroad for cheaper or we could be shopping for a better caliber of player for the same price. If you put a gun to my head and forced me to pick or these were the only players we could sign somehow: James Maddison - Would be that creative force we've needed at times in games where Buendia/JJ goes missing or gets muscled off the ball too easily. Ruben Neves - If Kamara continues to have injury problems for us, we'd be set up very well with another class DM that can also pick a pass. Jordan Pickford - If we lose Martinez this summer, he's going to be very hard to replace. I don't think Pickford is as big of a meme as England fans think he is and he would be a very solid choice/cost effective choice to replace Emi from a shot stopping point of view, but I'm not sure how good he is with the ball at his feet, though.
  14. No way we'd spend what Brighton would ask for him. They'll easily want more than the £63 million they got for Cucurella. If we're going to drop that kind of money on a signing, we'll be trying to go after someone like Gabri Veiga, Nico Williams, Alex Baena, or Yeremy Pino. Someone who is much younger, impressed so far in their top flight experience abroad, have the potential to be elite players in a few years, and does not require us to pay Premier League prices.
  15. What was implied is that the podcaster doesn't know what he's talking about because he isn't a regular at Villa Park and only "real fans" should have a podcast. A good portion of the active users on Villa Talk are not from the UK and it's extremely insulting to those of us who also religiously follow this club. You may as well tell the rest of us that our voices/opinions don't matter because we live somewhere outside of the UK. Like I said, I don't care if you listen to his podcast or not, but saying you don't listen to it only because he's just gone to his first match makes you look like a xenophobic knob.
  16. Yeah, as much as I want to hate them they are a great watch.
  17. This is great game for the neutrals. Munich's backline is all over the place...
  18. This kind of "holier than thou" supporter gatekeeping really annoys me. This is almost worse than people on here saying they can't watch Pete's videos because his accent "makes it hard to take him seriously". Football is a global sport now and from what I hear, it's a lot easier to watch the Premier League on TV outside of the UK than it is inside it. If you don't like Villa growing into a global brand, too bad. It's 2023 and the club will only continue to grow around the world with Emery/NSWE in charge of the club. If his podcast isn't your thing, fine. No need to insult other Villa supporters because they weren't born/raised/live in Birmingham.
  19. Glad it worked out for you! Sounds like your kids had a blast.
  20. YES!!! I'm extremely excited for this and may end up attending multiple games, price depending of course. I still want to make the pilgrimage to Birmingham this fall, so I'll have to make sure I can fit it in the budget, but I've been hoping to see the Villa in the USA for some time now.
  21. Percy reporting it now. Done deal. Goes to show Romero once again knows fook all.
  22. Valencia's owners are asset stripping the club and it's very possible if they go down this season, they'll continue to fall ala Sunderland. Very sad to see what's happened to that club. That said, every single one of their players are available. They've continually sold off their best players and rarely replaced them adequately.
  23. ...but what if he played for Leeds, though?
  24. I did one of those fixture predictor things and here's where it stands right before the Liverpool game. I think the battle for 6th, 7th, & 8th will come down to the last two games of the season where we play Liverpool away and Brighton at home. Brighton play Southampton in week 37, so it's a dead ringer they'll win that, putting us 2 points behind them (if we lose to Liverpool), 1 point behind them (if we draw to Liverpool), or a point ahead if we win. I would love to see Villa Park packed to the rafters in a showdown with Brighton for a European place on the line, winner take all.
  25. He's really starting to come into his own at City now. Playing some of his best football at the moment in a team which is firing on all cylinders. I honestly think they're going to catch Arsenal for the title.
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