GENTLEMAN

Maybe he wouldn’t have knocked out Grealish after all.

Cheers! Interesting section on Barkley. All rather spot on to me. For me, Ross is more worthy of the sublime to the ridiculous tag than Bert (that some like to label him with).

Do we have any inclination of what he sees himself as? A 6 or an 8? Interesting, I remember my friend playing in Portugal/Angola. He was told that a usual progression of a midfielder in Portugal was to play the deeper role, before moving further forward. The idea being you see the pictures developing better from deep and you can utilise that experience gained when you transition further up the field. I presume this translates to Brazil?

Haha yeah, said he got a smack in the tunnel, as one of the fans had breached that big poly tunnel thing. I suspect his arse dropped as soon as he planted it.

This comment made me rewatch that incident on YouTube. I subsequently fell down the rabbit hole. Watched the Copa90 Derby day series Galatasaray Fenerbahce. Then Boca/River (Copa Libertadores final 18’) and finally Pompey/Saints. Those Derby day pieces are really really good (for anyone interested). More like ethnographic studies seen through the prism of football. A day off really well spent..... Anyway Dean Smith is bang on, loving our story.

About 30miles or so from Leeds. Bitterly cold and light snow but none sticking, game should be ok.

Do you develop a system to complement your best players or do you find the players to complement the system? I know where I stand, especially with a large pool of talent like at international.

It’s transpiring that he was due to have a break this weekend anyway because amount of games he has reffed recently. However, tying this together adds more credence to this spin story. Root and branch overhaul of officiating needed. The Moss incident was the straw that broke the camels back for me. Never beforehand had that law been interpreted that way. Clearly an error had been made. Yet, it became a case for the Ministry of Truth.

Not condoning. However, classic diversion tactic as seen many time in modern politics. Red is rescinded. Release story about ‘death threats’ in attempt to bury. I suspect ‘death threats’ are received every other week. This does not excuse the state of officiating in the country at the moment. It needs to be overhauled.

I think they see the play from a individual player perspective. Like when they played the game. Too many pundits have this individualism mentality. Would like to see more ex-coaches speak about the game as pundits. Although, I think a fair few managers carry this belief from playing into management too, they mostly don’t succeed though. I suppose the point is to build upon the solid foundation of desire and attitude. An appreciation of the tactical picture is pretty useless without that foundation. Although this seems a pretty basic minimum for a professional athlete.

Me too. Couple that intense turn around. Final whistle at 22.15 on Wednesday to Kick-Off at 12.30 on Saturday. Hoping the energy will be there.

There is no possible way we could predict future output with any semblance of accuracy with those means or these data. The best we can do is compare normalised goal contribution for each position. We can then use that as indicator to our he has performed. You could then accept/reject a null hypothesis. However in that case you use all available data. I’m unsure how removing data that is quite clearly not erroneous, and is a natural part of the population, is good practice. This would be tantamount to academic malpractice in my background. but still.... By your own analysis of this season and last with your corrections (even excluding Liverpool and questionable position allocation): Left = 0.47 goal contributions per game Centre = 0.33 goal contributions per game Even when stretched to just include the tiny 5 game sample as ‘CAM’ = 0.4 goal contributions per game. How does that support your argument that when Smith has played him in centre he has been more effective?

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Sorry not from an football analytics background. What do you mean by ‘not transferable’? I would consider a penalty won as a major contributor to a goal. Let’s just bare bones this. Smith sees him as more productive on the left, you’re suggesting this isn’t the case. I happen to agree with Smith on this one. But I am happy to take in further data of the contrary. I happen to take stat quoting with a large pinch of salt as stated above. However, you seem to believe the ‘stats’ bare your view out. Where is the evidence?

Would you not think it pertinent to include winning a converted pen as a ‘goal contribution’?

Hmm interesting. I know you first suggest he performs better as ‘CAM’ as opposed to LW. How are your determining his exact positioning on the pitch? But, let’s for the sake of simplicity propose a more simple null hypothesis. Jack makes the same goal contributions when he plays centrally as when he plays wide left. Without seeing distribution, your data suggest this isn’t the case. Actually it is pointing toward an alternative hypothesis. Indeed, that he is more ‘productive’ playing from the left. In contrast to what you’re suggesting. Is the difference statistically significant? For me though, the experiment is floored anyway to say with clarity either way. Too many uncontrolled variables between repeats. In the ideal you want to measure your dependent variable (goal contributions) whilst you alter the independent variable (position). All other variables to remain the same. This is why I think the use of stats in football can be over-emphasised or misused to convince of a certain argument.

The summer will be incessant with rumour but that is because of the nature of his talent. I imagine much disrespect will be thrown Villas way. Going to kept my eyes closed and fingers in my ears. I hope the pandemic gives us another year before serious decisions being made, as any suitors may not be able to fund the transfer. As a measure, Coutinho went for 105 million potentially rising to 142 million (bbc) Jan 2018. Neymar (200m) Mbappe (165.7m). He's that damn good.

Show your working please.

Are they not just a supplier?

We’re not Wolves. These owners are not Lerner. He is not Milner, Barry or Benteke. Like you, I am unsure of what will happen regards Jack. I think he’s highly ambitious. I think he knows he’s world class and capable of performing on the biggest stage. I’d imagine he would like the experience of a huge transfer and to be an x million pound player. Be the talked about the world over and be on the cover of FIFA. Yet, this is no run of the mill transfer. Villa is in his blood. His whole life has been Aston Villa. These owners are serious and ambitious. He will be handsomely rewarded. This combination, may be enough to persuade him to remain. A title in Aston is worth 10 in Manchester. This fear of missing out may drive him to remain. Until he’s gone I’d rather be delusionally optimistic and dream of him captaining Villa under the lights at VP whilst serenaded by Handel’s anthem. Something I am more certain of is that the current regime know his value. They will not be embarrassed. He will cost and potential suitors will have to pay. We will reinvest and Villa will progress. I feel this is happening with or without Jack.

That’s not beyond the realms of possibilities though. Over the next 2-3 seasons. I think that’s where the owners intend to be swimming. I think we’re at catalyst moment, this season and next, much like spurs were prior to their push on the top 4. Of course much more competitive now, but it’s not wild to suggest that Grealish plays in the CL in a Villa shirt. Oh, unless you mean this season. Lol, yes maybe that is impossible.

I think the transfer of Sanson allows us the option of a more flat midfield 3. I reckon McGinn performs better in that system. He ain’t going nowhere. One of smiths favourites and rightly so as he’s integral to everything good about Villa this season and last. We’re accommodating Barkley but I think McGinn is good enough to offer that flexibility. Just tough game Soton, they press and tackle extremely well, especially combative in middle. Also, as you say, we were basically overrun there. So him and Luiz were overwhelmed. We won though, so there’s that.

I’m paraphrasing but I’m sure Smith did say last season that a 70% McGinn was his best option within the squad at that time.

I suspect you’re going to be very disappointed friend.

I don’t think he was ever the most graceful but he does look very clunky and awkward in those training videos on insta. Perhaps not surprising after such a long lay off.