Transfer Speculation (Summer 2013)

[roadoftrinity]

Gary Cahill has to be one if the most over rated players in the Premier League. I don't care if he plays for Chelsea, he is so poor defensively.

[pablo82]

Would be nice if we could get someone in before the Arsenal game even if they are not eligible to play it will just add more to team spirit moral around the club with players, fans etc

[Robbie09]

Gary Cahill has to be one if the most over rated players in the Premier League. I don't care if he plays for Chelsea, he is so poor defensively.

 

I agree. His goal against SHA and the poor quality of his immediate replacements enhanced his reputation but his display against us when we battered Bolton was one oif the worst I have witnessed by a centre half. He couldn't handle Carew that day. Kenny Miller ran him ragged on wednesday and Miller is League 1 standard at best.

[VillaCas]

anyhoo.. with Bent almost gone.. unfortunately on loan.. will we bring in someone.. im guessing a 2-3 million player on low wages? that young Algerian we were linked with?

 

I hope we do further strengthen the squad with a couple more signings before the window shuts, but my concern is that despite the struggles of last season we have at the moment an increased wage bill rather than a reduced one

 

Since PL arrived we have lost 12 players but bought 15 more in. In addition, half a dozen home-grown players have graduated to the first team. In all we have grown the squad by at least 7 or 8.

 

Estimating the total wage bill (and taking into account improved contracts for a number of last seasons squad) I would imagine that at the moment it is still more than under McLeish.

 

A big percentage of this (maybe 40%) resides in the bomb squad, which means that in effect PL is operating on only 60% of the money that McLeish was, but until Bent, Given, Zog, Ireland and Hutton (plus Bannan and Stevens) are properly off the wages bill, investment will continue to be very tight.

 

The problems we are experiencing shedding these unwanted players shows just how much of a mess we got ourselves into - no one wants these overpaid lightweights and by the time they have all been shown the door we will have given away (including those that have gone already) players that cost us more than £80m in transfer fees

 

It could be two more years before the excesses of our previous managers is completely unwound - Thank god for Lambert!

Edited August 16, 2013 by VillaCas

[sharkyvilla]

Losing Bent, Makoun, Dunne, Petrov and Holman must give us more money saved from wages than what we paid for the new guys surely?  I guess the contract extensions may put us ahead slightly, but Randy seemed willing to pay those wages before we got rid of the bomb squad.  I still hope we can get another couple in, Lambert doesn't want players who already have big contracts anyway.  Another couple of Lowtons and Westwoods from the lower leagues would be nice at least.

Edited August 16, 2013 by sharkyvilla

[Morpheus]

You would also have to include what the new players are earning such as Sylla, Westwood, Lowton, Tonev and so on which could be far less than one would think.

[VillaCas]

Losing Bent, Makoun, Dunne, Petrov and Holman must give us more money saved from wages than what we paid for the new guys surely?  I guess the contract extensions may put us ahead slightly, but Randy seemed willing to pay those wages before we got rid of the bomb squad.  I still hope we can get another couple in, Lambert doesn't want players who already have big contracts anyway.  Another couple of Lowtons and Westwoods from the lower leagues would be nice at least.

 

We've lost Heskey, Cuellar, Collins, Makoun, Warnock, Petrov, Dunne, Holman, Lichaj, Parrish, Williams & Marshall - estimate £20m a year in wages (£20M!!!!)

 

We've bought in 15 new players - estimate at least £16m a year + half a dozen acedemy players graduating + improved contracts for exisiting players = at least another £4-5m at year

 

I reckon all in all we are worse off!

 

Bent's loan deal may just about put us in a positive position, but only when we have got rid of remaining 6 bomb squad members (£14m a year???), will we be freeing up cash for real investment

[daggy_333]

Surely with the huge increase in TV money though our wage percentage must be down massively now?

[VillaCas]

You would also have to include what the new players are earning such as Sylla, Westwood, Lowton, Tonev and so on which could be far less than one would think.

 

I think you're right that new signings are on a fraction of the money paid to bomb squad players, depending on the player between £12-£20k a week, but even so I don't think we are yet any better off, despite the sacrifices of last season.

 

Also problematic is that despite signing players on low wages, we are now in a period of needing to offer improved contracts as players (Lowton, Benteke, Weimann, Baker etc) begin to prove themseleves

 

PL has operated with a squad earning around 60% of McL's but he has still had the remaining 40% of wages sitting unused.

 

Two more years before we are where we need to be wages-wise

Surely with the huge increase in TV money though our wage percentage must be down massively now?

 

Yes, that must be true of course but in pure financial terms we are not saving anything yet

[Morpheus]

 

Losing Bent, Makoun, Dunne, Petrov and Holman must give us more money saved from wages than what we paid for the new guys surely?  I guess the contract extensions may put us ahead slightly, but Randy seemed willing to pay those wages before we got rid of the bomb squad.  I still hope we can get another couple in, Lambert doesn't want players who already have big contracts anyway.  Another couple of Lowtons and Westwoods from the lower leagues would be nice at least.

 

We've lost Heskey, Cuellar, Collins, Makoun, Warnock, Petrov, Dunne, Holman, Lichaj, Parrish, Williams & Marshall - estimate £20m a year in wages (£20M!!!!)

 

We've bought in 15 new players - estimate at least £16m a year + half a dozen acedemy players graduating + improved contracts for exisiting players = at least another £4-5m at year

 

I reckon all in all we are worse off!

 

Bent's loan deal may just about put us in a positive position, but only when we have got rid of remaining 6 bomb squad members (£14m a year???), will we be freeing up cash for real investment

 

As a matter of interest how much do you assume our new players are on per week?

[Folski]

 

anyhoo.. with Bent almost gone.. unfortunately on loan.. will we bring in someone.. im guessing a 2-3 million player on low wages? that young Algerian we were linked with?

 

I hope we do further strengthen the squad with a couple more signings before the window shuts, but my concern is that despite the struggles of last season we have at the moment an increased wage bill rather than a reduced one

 

Since PL arrived we have lost 12 players but bought 15 more in. In addition, half a dozen home-grown players have graduated to the first team. In all we have grown the squad by at least 7 or 8.

 

Estimating the total wage bill (and taking into account improved contracts for a number of last seasons squad) I would imagine that at the moment it is still more than under McLeish.

 

A big percentage of this (maybe 40%) resides in the bomb squad, which means that in effect PL is operating on only 60% of the money that McLeish was, but until Bent, Given, Zog, Ireland and Hutton (plus Bannan and Stevens) are properly off the wages bill, investment will continue to be very tight.

 

The problems we are experiencing shedding these unwanted players shows just how much of a mess we got ourselves into - no one wants these overpaid lightweights and by the time they have all been shown the door we will have given away (including those that have gone already) players that cost us more than £80m in transfer fees

 

It could be two more years before the excesses of our previous managers is completely unwound - Thank god for Lambert!

 

 

I would imagine we are a lot lower than the time of McLeish to be honest, let's remember firstly that McLeish had Keane & Jenas on the payroll for a part of that season both of whom would have been on decent money to say the least, now also from that squad we've since lost Heskey, Cuellar, both before Lambert even arrived and added Holman. PL then added El Ahmadi, Lowton, Vlaar, Bennett, Benteke, Bowery & Westwood. In the same window he sold Collins to West Ham for £3m. In January he added Dawkins & Sylla and late last season he also got rid of Warnock, if you believe reports that 180k (Heskey, Cuellar, Collins,  Warnock) a week off the books, not including the money that was spent on Jenas & Keane. Now none of that includes that Hutton & Makoun were both on loan although it's probable not all wages were covered. Since the end of last season, we have seen Petrov retire & Dunne leave according to reports another 120k a week. Dawkins, Marshall, Lichaj, Holman & Makoun have also moved on I'd imagine that's close to another 80k a week there. He's added the 6 this summer all of whom I'd imagine are on under 20k a week and given 7 players from last year new deals. 

[Shillzz]

I'd imagine we'll get the next 3 games out of the way, then perhaps look at the transfer situation again after that. I wouldn't expect any signings in the next week.

[VillaCas]

 

As a matter of interest how much do you assume our new players are on per week?

 

 

The latest batch? I'd guess around £15k a week? Okore probably more than that? I'm not sure but nothing like Bent, Ireland etc

[Morpheus]

 

You would also have to include what the new players are earning such as Sylla, Westwood, Lowton, Tonev and so on which could be far less than one would think.

 

I think you're right that new signings are on a fraction of the money paid to bomb squad players, depending on the player between £12-£20k a week, but even so I don't think we are yet any better off, despite the sacrifices of last season.

 

Also problematic is that despite signing players on low wages, we are now in a period of needing to offer improved contracts as players (Lowton, Benteke, Weimann, Baker etc) begin to prove themseleves

 

 

Surely with the huge increase in TV money though our wage percentage must be down massively now?

 

Yes, that must be true of course but in pure financial terms we are not saving anything yet

 

I personally feel that although the figures you quote are reasonable i would suggest that the new players are on no-where near twenty grand per week and indeed lower than twelve.

 

Wages therefore have been brought down dramatically and some of the players are probably earning wages on a parody with some Championship clubs.

 

However, if for instance Lowton and Westwood repeat the success of last season then i do agree with you to have any chance of keeping those players their wages will have to be increased dramatically and there in lies the problem that to run a successful Premiership club you cannot expect to keep the overall wages expenditure where it now and statistically low.

 

The difference being that players on good wages will actually be earning those wages by playing every week something which we haven't had at the club for a considerable amount of time.

[VillaCas]

 

I would imagine we are a lot lower than the time of McLeish to be honest, let's remember firstly that McLeish had Keane & Jenas on the payroll for a part of that season both of whom would have been on decent money to say the least, now also from that squad we've since lost Heskey, Cuellar, both before Lambert even arrived and added Holman. PL then added El Ahmadi, Lowton, Vlaar, Bennett, Benteke, Bowery & Westwood. In the same window he sold Collins to West Ham for £3m. In January he added Dawkins & Sylla and late last season he also got rid of Warnock, if you believe reports that 180k (Heskey, Cuellar, Collins,  Warnock) a week off the books, not including the money that was spent on Jenas & Keane. Now none of that includes that Hutton & Makoun were both on loan although it's probable not all wages were covered. Since the end of last season, we have seen Petrov retire & Dunne leave according to reports another 120k a week. Dawkins, Marshall, Lichaj, Holman & Makoun have also moved on I'd imagine that's close to another 80k a week there. He's added the 6 this summer all of whom I'd imagine are on under 20k a week and given 7 players from last year new deals. 

 

 

You could be right, if so I think it's still marginal - we don't know, but personally I don't think we are better off

 

Heskey, Cuellar, Collins, Makoun, Warnock, Petrov, Dunne are major expenses off the bill (plus 5 or 6 other minor players gone)

 

But....

 

We have signed 15 new players in and promoted 5 or 6 from the academy and given improved contracts to quite a number

 

We need to get rid of the bomb squad before we are really see any real progress

[VillaCas]

 

 

You would also have to include what the new players are earning such as Sylla, Westwood, Lowton, Tonev and so on which could be far less than one would think.

 

I think you're right that new signings are on a fraction of the money paid to bomb squad players, depending on the player between £12-£20k a week, but even so I don't think we are yet any better off, despite the sacrifices of last season.

 

Also problematic is that despite signing players on low wages, we are now in a period of needing to offer improved contracts as players (Lowton, Benteke, Weimann, Baker etc) begin to prove themseleves

 

 

Surely with the huge increase in TV money though our wage percentage must be down massively now?

 

Yes, that must be true of course but in pure financial terms we are not saving anything yet

 

I personally feel that although the figures you quote are reasonable i would suggest that the new players are on no-where near twenty grand per week and indeed lower than twelve.

 

Wages therefore have been brought down dramatically and some of the players are probably earning wages on a parody with some Championship clubs.

 

However, if for instance Lowton and Westwood repeat the success of last season then i do agree with you to have any chance of keeping those players their wages will have to be increased dramatically and there in lies the problem that to run a successful Premiership club you cannot expect to keep the overall wages expenditure where it now and statistically low.

 

The difference being that players on good wages will actually be earning those wages by playing every week something which we haven't had at the club for a considerable amount of time.

 

 

I understand that Lowton, Westwood, Bennett etc came on board for around £10-£12k a week. I also understand that the players signed this close season were slightly more, Okore in particular is I think on £20k

 

We might be slightly better off or slightly worse off but the main thrust of my point was that the financial mess that we (they) allowed themselves to get into is still a long way from being sorted

 

I agree with your other points completely

 

Where are you predicting for us this season Morpheus? (I'm mid-table at 10th but hoping for better!)

Edited August 16, 2013 by VillaCas

[villaglint]

 

 

I would imagine we are a lot lower than the time of McLeish to be honest, let's remember firstly that McLeish had Keane & Jenas on the payroll for a part of that season both of whom would have been on decent money to say the least, now also from that squad we've since lost Heskey, Cuellar, both before Lambert even arrived and added Holman. PL then added El Ahmadi, Lowton, Vlaar, Bennett, Benteke, Bowery & Westwood. In the same window he sold Collins to West Ham for £3m. In January he added Dawkins & Sylla and late last season he also got rid of Warnock, if you believe reports that 180k (Heskey, Cuellar, Collins,  Warnock) a week off the books, not including the money that was spent on Jenas & Keane. Now none of that includes that Hutton & Makoun were both on loan although it's probable not all wages were covered. Since the end of last season, we have seen Petrov retire & Dunne leave according to reports another 120k a week. Dawkins, Marshall, Lichaj, Holman & Makoun have also moved on I'd imagine that's close to another 80k a week there. He's added the 6 this summer all of whom I'd imagine are on under 20k a week and given 7 players from last year new deals. 

 

 

You could be right, if so I think it's still marginal - we don't know, but personally I don't think we are better off

 

Heskey, Cuellar, Collins, Makoun, Warnock, Petrov, Dunne are major expenses off the bill (plus 5 or 6 other minor players gone)

 

But....

 

We have signed 15 new players in and promoted 5 or 6 from the academy and given improved contracts to quite a number

 

We need to get rid of the bomb squad before we are really see any real progress

 

 

See what your saying VillaCas but I think we saw progress at the end of last season. If we can keep that going this year we will hit midtable and more comfortable season.

 

I think most of us would take that gladly after the last few years.

 

You are saying there is still a way to go financially so we wont be able to add real quality for a little while. I think that's fair enough but hopefully if the team continues to progress then we'll only need 1/2 top players to help push us on to challenging the top 5/6/7/8 positions.

[Folski]

Way I see it:

Wages were £83m in 2010/11 now since then we've lost - Friedel, Young, Warnock, Dunne, Downing, Young, Pires, Carew (0.5 of a season was on loan at Stoke), Bradley, Makoun, Heskey, Petrov, Reo-Coker, Beye, Cuellar, Osbourne, Hogg, Collins, Lichaj, Marshall, Walker (0.5), Salifou, Sidwell (0.5), Davies (0.5). I estimate that to be about 700k a week when you factor in that Ireland was on loan for half the season so I'd have to take half his wages off & Bent was only signed in January.

 

Since we've added or given better deals to:

Guzan, Steer, Given, Baker, Bennet, Vlaar, Okore, Clark, Luna, Lowton, Stevens, Hutton, Bacuna, El Ahmadi, Albrighton, Delph, Herd, Sylla, Gardner, Tonev, Carruthers, NZogbia, Bannan, Johnson, Heleniusm Weimann, Benteke, Bowery, Delfouneso, Burke. 

I reckon that would equate to around 600k in additions. Of which I count about £190k of Albrighton, Bannan, Delfouneso, Given, Hutton, NZogbia, Add in another £140k a week in Bent & Ireland.

[Morpheus]

 

 

As a matter of interest how much do you assume our new players are on per week?

 

 

The latest batch? I'd guess around £15k a week? Okore probably more than that? I'm not sure but nothing like Bent, Ireland etc

 

As stated above most probably are on less than that and probably in single figures. Take a look where they have come from and what those clubs would have paid them before. Young players signing for Premiership clubs doesn't always immediately equate to a massive wage increase when you also consider that with the exception of Okore most of our signings have been relatively unknown quantities.

 

I would say their contracts are structured to take into consideration the risk our club is taking on bringing them to our club in the first place. If they don't work out then there hasn't been an initial massive outlay on them but if they are successful then their structured contract would take care of the player.

 

I'm sure its the same with most other Premiership clubs signing raw young players but most other Premiership clubs are not using the extensive youth policy that we are now trying to put in place and hence the probable protection (low wages) for the club although some might say we have gone too far with that policy but that is another debate entirely. 

Edited August 16, 2013 by Morpheus

[Rob182]

We're potentially in a better position for the future.

Instead of having ageing players, past their best, on large contracts, we'll have younger players on smaller contracts. These younger players will either get better and earn bigger (but not stupid) contracts, will be sold for high profits (to be re-invested into the team) or if they don't make the cut, they will be sold or left on reasonable 'squad/ backup' status contracts.