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Looking Ahead: If We Stay Up


maqroll
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What do you think the club's plans are if we avoid the drop? Dump the rest of the big earners and continue signing mediocre players on low wages? 

 

Do we invest the TV money in better quality players on higher wages?

 

Does Randy sell?

 

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I believe the club are still trying to purge the overpaid, under-performing players signed by the previous three permanent managers, and that when the job is complete the manager will be given funds to sign new, better quality players.

 

I believe there will be a drive to sign players with the right attitude and the will to succeed with Aston Villa, rather than seeing the club as a stepping stone (Lowton).

 

I believe the transfer fees and wages will be made available to sign the right players, but those wages will not be what they were under the O'Neill tenure.

 

I believe Benteke is likely going to be used as the model for future transfers - bring them in for a reasonable fee and pay them reasonable wages, instead of an inflated fee and unsustainable wages.

 

I see contracts of no more than 4 years for most players, but 5 year contracts for the promising younger players that have already cracked into the first team (Weimann).

 

I can see any players who want to '**** the system' being ushered out the door fairly quickly.

 

I believe we are trying to restructure our wages in line with Everton, who pay an average wage to a senior player of £27k/week.  Last season, Villa's average salary was £47k/week.  Everton represent ultimate value for return, while we were performing like a crack whore.

 

And finally, I expect us to sign more players from Holland/Denmark/France/Germany/Belgium.  It's known that you can pick up a bargain in Belgium, but picking the right one will likely prove the key for Villa moving forward..

Edited by MMFy
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The club will look to sustain itself with profitable player trading. So we will sell Benteke and maybe Weimann and that will be our transfer budget looking to invest , and then sell for profit at some point in twelve months or so. This is our club now

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The club will look to sustain itself with profitable player trading. So we will sell Benteke and maybe Weimann and that will be our transfer budget looking to invest , and then sell for profit at some point in twelve months or so. This is our club now

 

A very dangerous game indeed for a club 'like' Aston Villa... I know that sounds awfully snobby...

 

Maybe not this season, but next season, the trap door gets nearer... Charlton Athletic, we have become.

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This thread reminds me of those famously optimistic conversations you have with people who tell you what they'd do if they won the lottery. We've all been there.

 

Anyway, it is a good topic of conversation and I agree with the sentiment that one way or another, we'll be getting relegated at some point. We've been looming ever closer to the Championship since Oneill left (not because Oneill left, but because this coincided with Lerner turning the screw on our playing staff budget).

 

You cannot run a Premier League club the way that Lerner is running Aston Villa FC, and sooner or later we'll level out where our finances dictate that we belong. We may struggle our way into another Premier League season, or more, but just like Wigan, Reading etc, one day we will go down. And then we'll struggle to get back up again.

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i'm not sure we had many other realistic ways of getting out of the shit we were in to be honest. far too many either average or underperforming players on huge salaries that only get paid by clubs with a sniff of the CL in our league or clubs who do not care about being massively loss making. 

we are neither of those things. if we stay up this season should be the lowest point in the transition from paying 60k a week to tossers to paying average 30k a week to players who give a shit. once we've got rid of all the overpaid underacheivers then it's time to really start the rebuilding and i'd expect us to start moving up the table agian.

if we go down then the pruning will be more drastic and getting promotion in the first season becomes massively important. either way, in 1 or 2 years we shoudl finally have shaken off the hangover from overspending so much and start to rebuild in a more sustainable way.

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The club will look to sustain itself with profitable player trading. So we will sell Benteke and maybe Weimann and that will be our transfer budget looking to invest , and then sell for profit at some point in twelve months or so. This is our club now

 

This is what Everton do, and if we're totally honest that's about the size of club we are now in the modern game. We can't compete financially with teams like Spurs and Liverpool who are top 6.

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The club will look to sustain itself with profitable player trading. So we will sell Benteke and maybe Weimann and that will be our transfer budget looking to invest , and then sell for profit at some point in twelve months or so. This is our club now

 

This is what Everton do, and if we're totally honest that's about the size of club we are now in the modern game. We can't compete financially with teams like Spurs and Liverpool who are top 6.

 

Being anything like Everton is something we can only dream of at the moment. Everton were matching and beating us during the 'glory' years under O'neill when Lerner was investing heavily into the club. Their crowds are far bigger than ours, despite sharing a smaller city than Birmingham with a bigger club than themselves, and they consistently achieve top 7 finishes.

 

Their club is ran on a tight budget, but by someone who actually knows what they're doing, unlike Lerner who has no idea how to run a Premier League football club. Unfortunately we are lightyears behind Everton and it will take some serious restructuring within the club before we can get back to their level.

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The club will look to sustain itself with profitable player trading. So we will sell Benteke and maybe Weimann and that will be our transfer budget looking to invest , and then sell for profit at some point in twelve months or so. This is our club now

 

This is what Everton do, and if we're totally honest that's about the size of club we are now in the modern game. We can't compete financially with teams like Spurs and Liverpool who are top 6.

 

Being anything like Everton is something we can only dream of at the moment. Everton were matching and beating us during the 'glory' years under O'neill when Lerner was investing heavily into the club. Their crowds are far bigger than ours, despite sharing a smaller city than Birmingham with a bigger club than themselves, and they consistently achieve top 7 finishes.

 

Their club is ran on a tight budget, but by someone who actually knows what they're doing, unlike Lerner who has no idea how to run a Premier League football club. Unfortunately we are lightyears behind Everton and it will take some serious restructuring within the club before we can get back to their level.

 

I have to take issue with the statement that 'their crowds are far bigger than ours', pretty sure we've had a higher average gate than them in the majority of seasons in the past 10 years or so.

I made my original post because I actually think some fans need to take a step back to even accept that that is the level we are looking at for future seasons. There are some who still expect us to be able to get back to competing in the top 4-6.

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I was talking about the present time, the club have been in reasonable shape (give or take) over most of the last 10 years. I've no doubt that our gates were comparable, maybe even favourable towards ourselves in the past, but at the moment Villa Park has more empty seats than it has done for some time.

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I was talking about the present time, the club have been in reasonable shape (give or take) over most of the last 10 years. I've no doubt that our gates were comparable, maybe even favourable towards ourselves in the past, but at the moment Villa Park has more empty seats than it has done for some time.

 

A team who is chasing Champions League football is highly likely to be getting bigger crowds than one battling relegation.

Having said that, they only average 3k more than us this season, hardly 'far bigger'. Even last season under McLeish we had a higher average attendance than them.

I'll give Everton credit for the way their club is run, but there's no way we should start thinking they are lightyears ahead of us in terms of fanbase or gates.

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Their Fanbase is only one of many things that shows they are a bigger, more successful and better run club than us at the moment.

 

I appreciate your opinion, but I don't agree with it, and I think the proof will be in the pudding. It would take us many years, under better ownership and with a better manager to catch up with them.

 

EDIT: I should add that I do take your point about attendances, and find those stats slightly surprising.

Edited by Shillzz
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Their Fanbase is only one of many things that shows they are a bigger, more successful and better run club than us at the moment.

 

I appreciate your opinion, but I don't agree with it, and I think the proof will be in the pudding. It would take us many years, under better ownership and with a better manager to catch up with them.

 

Their fanbase isn't bigger though, that's the point. How does them having 3000 more fans at games show they are bigger? Given the factors surrounding both teams this season, it's expected.

I'm not disputing other areas, I know they are better run and performing better in the League than us at the moment.

EDIT - Just seen Shillzz' edit. The overriding point is that they are the model we need to aspire to.

Edited by AvfcTheObsession
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Yeah I do take your point about the attendances, I assumed there would be a bigger disparity between the 2 clubs in all honesty.

 

My point is that they are a thoroughly well established top 7 Premier League club with a manager and owner who knows how to keep them there. I don't accept comparisons between the 2 clubs because I don't think there are many similarities any more. We are lightyears apart in so many areas, and I don't think it's within Lerner's capabilities to run a club successfully on a shoestring like Moyes and Kenwright do.

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This thread reminds me of those famously optimistic conversations you have with people who tell you what they'd do if they won the lottery. We've all been there.

 

Anyway, it is a good topic of conversation and I agree with the sentiment that one way or another, we'll be getting relegated at some point. We've been looming ever closer to the Championship since Oneill left (not because Oneill left, but because this coincided with Lerner turning the screw on our playing staff budget).

 

You cannot run a Premier League club the way that Lerner is running Aston Villa FC, and sooner or later we'll level out where our finances dictate that we belong. We may struggle our way into another Premier League season, or more, but just like Wigan, Reading etc, one day we will go down. And then we'll struggle to get back up again.

I agree 110%.

Lerner thinks that the Premier League is like the NFL in the USA.In other words, no matter how bad we are we will stay up and the crowds will keep turning up on a saturday.He needs a reality check badly.

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Last season revenue - £80m

This season reveneue - £80m

2013/14 revenue - £100m (with the new tv deal).

 

We will want to keep wages at 60% of revenue going forward, so £60 total wages cap.

This then gives us £20mill a year transfer kitty to spend as well. 

With the final £20m going on the usual overheads.

 

so that gives us a good break-even position to maintain over the years.

 

The trick then is to build the best team, with £20m transfer kitty and £60m total wage cap.

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Last season revenue - £80m

This season reveneue - £80m

2013/14 revenue - £100m (with the new tv deal).

 

We will want to keep wages at 60% of revenue going forward, so £60 total wages cap.

This then gives us £20mill a year transfer kitty to spend as well. 

With the final £20m going on the usual overheads.

 

so that gives us a good break-even position to maintain over the years.

 

The trick then is to build the best team, with £20m transfer kitty and £60m total wage cap.

Are you factoring in the possibility that the extra TV money will mainly feed through into higher wages for premier league quality players, so a £60m wage cap may lead to us having to buy lower quality players?

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