The Randy Lerner thread

[Big_John_10]

Worst start to a season in premiership history. First time in the clubs history conceding 8 goals in one game. Followed by 4-0 then 3-0 and only managing 4 shots in those 3 games. Lowest scorers in the league, highest conceding team in the league. Worst goal difference in the league. Average less than 1 point a game. On course for lowest amount of goals scored in the history of the club. Also didn't we set a new record for our lowest attendance in premeriship history this year?

The manager is better and the players are on board but right now I'm not seeing the improvement.

[El-Reacho]

I've no real sympathy toward Randy - but no real malice toward him either. He says himself he took a gamble by trying to get CL football under O'Neill. He took his manager's advice on what was required and backed him. It didn't pay off and he has no regrets. Live by the sword - die by the sword.

IMHO - he has subsequently made two serious mistakes in sacking Houllier when he did (if he had any choice with respect to GH's health), and his subsequent appointment.

We're now on a very tight budget because the expensive gamble didn't pay off - but I'm positive that the future of the club is not in doubt in any way even if worst happens in May.

[Mantis]

Worst start to a season in premiership history. First time in the clubs history conceding 8 goals in one game. Followed by 4-0 then 3-0 and only managing 4 shots in those 3 games. Lowest scorers in the league, highest conceding team in the league. Worst goal difference in the league. Average less than 1 point a game. On course for lowest amount of goals scored in the history of the club. Also didn't we set a new record for our lowest attendance in premeriship history this year?

The manager is better and the players are on board but right now I'm not seeing the improvement.

The season isn't anywhere near over yet so things like lowest goal scorers and worst goal difference can easily change.

[briny_ear]

He's been so unlucky I think. O'Neill did well, but a better manager would have took us comfortably into top 4 IMO. All we needed was the right manager to go for better players and not waste it on old grot.

This is the continuing Villatalk myth that clearly isn't going to go away so let's just mention that it is totally wrong and unsupported by any fact. You only have to look at the business models of the clubs that have established themselves as top 4 regulars to see that Lerner simply wasn't in their league.

Was it also "bad luck" that made Lerner then appoint two completely useless managers who spent quite a lot of money on high wage players who now can't get a regular place in the team and dragged us down into successive relegation struggles? How many times before it starts to look like a pattern, not a stroke of bad luck?

He now seems to have got lucky in appointing a decent manager but you can't have much confidence that he will know how to support him to help the team make progress.

Edited January 8, 2013 by briny_ear

[El-Reacho]

This is the continuing Villatalk myth that clearly isn't going to go away so let's just mention that it is totally wrong and unsupported by any fact. You only have to look at the business models of the clubs that have established themselves as top 4 regulars to see that Lerner simply wasn't in their league.

How's Manchester City's business model any different to how ours was (other than sheer amount of spending obviously)? They're just spending money like it's going out of fashion. They don't have any business model other than trying to get round FFP rules by doing a stadium naming rights deal that's still not anywhere close to giving them financial sustainability. The business models that work are the ones that have been in place for 10 years+. Even with all their stability Everton's model barely stacks up. They'll sell Fellaini this summer to service their debt.

We are now at the beginning of a very long process of building - wouldn't surprise me if RL has begun a 10-15 year plan now.

Edited January 8, 2013 by El-Reacho

[Kingfisher]

I think if we'd have got into the CL things might look different today, but we didn't. I don't think it was that unlucky, I think MON made mistakes. I honk RL made mistakes, I think he's made mistakes since, I think he'll make mistakes again. But why is there this continual need to go over and over them? Why not focus on what we're doing that's good right now and offer a balanced critique takin into account the good and the bad that has and is taking place. It's tedious to read all the bad things that have happened all the time without balancing it out with the good stuff.

[briny_ear]

How's Manchester City's business model any different to how ours was (other than sheer amount of spending obviously)?

We don't need to go any further than that.

[Big_John_10]

The season isn't anywhere near over yet so things like lowest goal scorers and worst goal difference can easily change.

Well that's obvious.

But I can only judge on what has happened so far.

[Big_John_10]

I think if we'd have got into the CL things might look different today, but we didn't. I don't think it was that unlucky, I think MON made mistakes. I honk RL made mistakes, I think he's made mistakes since, I think he'll make mistakes again. But why is there this continual need to go over and over them? Why not focus on what we're doing that's good right now and offer a balanced critique takin into account the good and the bad that has and is taking place. It's tedious to read all the bad things that have happened all the time without balancing it out with the good stuff.

I think getting into the CL would only have delayed the need to massively cut costs.

If we'd finished in the top 4 our income would have increased but in order to compete in the CL and try to quality for it the following year our spending and more importantly wage bill would have had to increase as well.

Now, given the fact spurs failed to repeat it I think it's pretty unlikely that we would have been able to. So then we'd be in a position where the wage bill had rocketed up and income would have dropped back down to a normal level.

Eventually the same sort of drastic cuts would have had to be made.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Big_John_10

[Richard]

Worst start to a season in premiership history. First time in the clubs history conceding 8 goals in one game.

We lost 8-1 to Blackburn in a cup match, so not the first time but arguing over worsts for the club is a little sad I think

FWIW I sympathise with the thrust of your concerns I really do

But I do not necessarily think it is linear like that. What I mean is because we are having bad times now does not necessarily mean that thinks will not improve beyond that of last season.

[Big_John_10]

Maybe it was an 8 goal difference for the first time then. Like you say though not a great state when picking over minor details of an embarrassing defeat.

I think things can improve Richard. I really do. I'm not going to say that we will always be this bad under Lerner and Lambert because if we do stay up then I can see next year being better.

I don't know how much we'll improve under Lerner though and where he sees this club going.

[VillaForever1970]

Big_John what does he do if he cannot afford it?

And staying stuff like sell to someone who can, invest wisely etc etc doesn't cut it.

What would you do?

[Big_John_10]

Can't afford what?

Don't we have a higher income than the majority of teams in the league? Hasn't he just sold something he inherited for a $1 billion?

I don't think he can afford to guarantee us a 4th place finish but i don't believe for one second that all he can afford is for us to fight off relegation or become a regular bottom half team.

[Richard]

Maybe it was an 8 goal difference for the first time then. Like you say though not a great state when picking over minor details of an embarrassing defeat.

I think things can improve Richard. I really do. I'm not going to say that we will always be this bad under Lerner and Lambert because if we do stay up then I can see next year being better.

I don't know how much we'll improve under Lerner though and where he sees this club going.

Last line I sort of agree with

I think we'll improve from here but challenge for top four regularly or even the title (as were the hopes when he first took over) no chance

Big_John what does he do if he cannot afford it?

And staying stuff like sell to someone who can, invest wisely etc etc doesn't cut it.

What would you do?

This is an argument I just do not get.

Saying those things cut it while Ellis was here, why dont they cut it now?

[VillaForever1970]

Can't afford what?

Don't we have a higher income than the majority of teams in the league? Hasn't he just sold something he inherited for a $1 billion?

I don't think he can afford to guarantee us a 4th place finish but i don't believe for one second that all he can afford is for us to fight off relegation or become a regular bottom half team.

Cannot afford to plough more and more money in signing fancy names to keep people happy, what if he cannot afford that?

Just because he sold another asset for a 1 billion or a 100 billion means **** all, unless you know all of Lerners money business, what he owes on what all his financial portfolio? No, thought not.

[VillaForever1970]

This is an argument I just do not get.

Saying those things cut it while Ellis was here, why dont they cut it now?

Its quite simple, i want a swimming pool i cannot afford it. I either bankrupt my family to get it or i just get on with it. Villa fans would want me to bankrupt my family and stamp their feet until i did.

What Ellis did or didn't do has nothing to do with anything, he has no baring whats so ever, unless he is still financially involved, is he? Besides football was slightly different back then.

[Big_John_10]

Cannot afford to plough more and more money in signing fancy names to keep people happy, what if he cannot afford that?

Just because he sold another asset for a 1 billion or a 100 billion means **** all, unless you know all of Lerners money business, what he owes on what all his financial portfolio? No, thought not.

Fancy names just to keep people happy? I'm not sure people just want fancy names.

Haha no i don't know all his financial portfolio. Do you? No, thought not.

And if he truly can't afford it then do what he said he would when he took over. Actively look for someone to sell the club to.

[Richard]

Its quite simple, i want a swimming pool i cannot afford it. I either bankrupt my family to get it or i just get on with it. Villa fans would want me to bankrupt my family and stamp their feet until i did.

What Ellis did or didn't do has nothing to do with anything, he has no baring whats so ever, unless he is still financially involved, is he? Besides football was slightly different back then.

Not sure the analogy you have used works to be honest.

Your assertion that saying 'sell up to someone with more money' doesn't cut it is one I am disputing because it was what was said when Ellis was here more or less so I think it can still be said now. I am not saying Ellis has any baring at all, I am merely reflecting what was said under the last owner and that I think it is acceptible to say it now.

Yes football was slightly different then, but only in so much as the amounts of money that were being spent. It was still a money game as it has always been.

I would argue the fact that the game / amounts have changed mean that we would need to change with it and if we truly do want sustained success, to retain our best players and best managers then we need more money. Obviously Lerner cannot provide that ergo more success wanted = owner with bigger bank balance needed. Not sure there is anything wrong with people wanting to say that.

So when you say what do we want lerner to do it is perfectly reasonable to answer with "seek out a new buyer who has vast wealth" please

[blandy]

..when you say what do we want lerner to do it is perfectly reasonable to answer with "seek out a new buyer who has vast wealth" please

Not in my view. (And it wasn't my view under the previous owner either, btw).

I just don't think that's a credible line to take, even if I was in favour of sport as a money based arms race, which I most definitely am not.

Aside from the impracticaility of selecting and then discarding a sequence of ever richer people to buy success, or get poor trying, it places no emphasis on actually looking after the club. Money as the be all and end all, and "get out of you haven't got as much as I want you to spend buying some cups" is a lamentable attitude IMO.

By all means, criticise, comment, complain etc. if you think someone is doing things badly, but complaining that someone isn't spending enough of their own money to buy you something you want is ridiculous.

[R.I.C.O.]

Great post Richard. I look at VillaForever's post and weep. Seems like we are completely back to square one with some people. I remember some of the apologists for Ellis defending his parsimonious ways saying exactly the same thing as some are saying about Lerner now.

The simple fact is, Lerner has tried, and it was nice while it lasted, but he has failed - if what we are seeing now is his current strategy.

It simply is not good enough for Aston Villa FC. He should sell to someone who can take this club forward, and if that involves spending more than Lerner can commit, so be it! Football has always been a money game, right from the end of WW2.