The Randy Lerner thread

[briny_ear]

To be fair to MON, He consistently said that to compete at the top end of the Premiership you haven to go on investing just to stand still. That's what Lerner couldn't do. He just ran out of money as far as I can see and we have been taking be consequences for the last 3 seasons.

[PaulC]

Maybe Lerner did run out of money but I think it was more the point of the wage bill being unstainable and broken promises by Oneill not to streamline the squad after he coughed up money to get Dunne, Collins and Warnock.

[Big_John_10]

Martin o' Neil's models are not sustainable IMO

Are there many models that are sustainable for a club like us to finish top 6 on a regular basis?

[paulfromsutton]

 

Martin o' Neil's models are not sustainable IMO

Are there many models that are sustainable for a club like us to finish top 6 on a regular basis?

 

 

NO!

 

Either

 

An owner stumps up the money to 1 get you to the top four and then to stay there before pulling the plug on major funding as CL participation, merchandise sales and sponsorship goes up dramatically.

 

Our fans start paying the money to watch top four football aka 50 quid tickets, selling out so we expand the ground etc.

 

Seeing as our fans havent done the latter then we will always be an also ran until an owner pops along and does the former.

[Mantis]

To be fair to MON, He consistently said that to compete at the top end of the Premiership you haven to go on investing just to stand still. That's what Lerner couldn't do. He just ran out of money as far as I can see and we have been taking be consequences for the last 3 seasons.

Of course, but we weren't really getting good results for the level of investment, which is probably why Lerner decided to pull the plug.

 

[Big_John_10]

To be fair to MON, He consistently said that to compete at the top end of the Premiership you haven to go on investing just to stand still. That's what Lerner couldn't do. He just ran out of money as far as I can see and we have been taking be consequences for the last 3 seasons.

Of course, but we weren't really getting good results for the level of investment, which is probably why Lerner decided to pull the plug.

I thought our wage bill was around the 6th highest in the league?

[Mantis]

It's not just about the wage bill, it's about the money spent as well. Not only that but even though we had the 6th highest wage bill most of the players were being paid way more than they were worth.

Edited April 28, 2013 by blandy

[Big_John_10]

Ok. I shouldn't have mentioned the wage thing.

There's little point having the same debate for the 1000th time.

[Mantis]

The wage bill is/was still a massive issue though.There were so many players he left who were on so much more than they were actually worth.

[John]

There is a lesson for Randy I think in Wolves second relegation. Morgan has put balance sheets in front of what is happening on the pitch and has sold players without replacing them on a like for like basis. Although Randy put a lot of money into the club at first and Morgan never has, Randy's spending has dried up post MON and we have suffered on the pitch as a result. He really needs to back his manager this summer and should the likes of Benteke go and we stay up then we need to spend the money we get on new players rather than on recouping money spent on earlier investments. If we do take the drop we need to avoid following the example set by Wolves when they were relegated and failed to invest money back into the team to make a strong run for promotion. This season was far too high a risk to take with our football club and lessons need to be learned for next season if we are to avoid a repeat of this season's struggle or to make a fist of getting back at the first time of asking should the unthinkable happen.    

[blandy]

paulfromsutton, on 28 Apr 2013 - 01:54 AM, said:

Big_John_10, on 27 Apr 2013 - 6:13 PM, said:

Quote

Martin o' Neil's models are not sustainable IMO

Are there many models that are sustainable for a club like us to finish top 6 on a regular basis?

NO!

Either

An owner stumps up the money to 1 get you to the top four and then to stay there before pulling the plug on major funding as CL participation, merchandise sales and sponsorship goes up dramatically.

Our fans start paying the money to watch top four football aka 50 quid tickets, selling out so we expand the ground etc.

Seeing as our fans haven't done the latter then we will always be an also ran until an owner pops along and does the former.

There are a number of comments in relation to all that.

Obviously there aren't many models that allow regular top 6 finishes. But there are some, at least.

It's a moving landscape, as well. it's not like there's a fixed environment (fixed as in unchanging, not as in rigged ). What I mean by that is the FFP thing. Abramovic and Co. are not now, quite as able, if at all able, to "dope" their clubs to get there. In fact they're having to reverse their levels of outlay, so there's a weakness there at the moment for the likes of Chelsea and Man City, in that they have to pull back from all out "money war". It may change again if the lawyers find a way round the FFP rules.

But anyway, to finish in the top 6 you need a really good set of players. You need a team ethic and mentality and a very good manager, and you need a stable club. Sometimes the focus on money all the time completely obscures the basics of the sport.

I think the way the club is setting itself up is in many ways the most likely way to get there. That might seem daft, with us struggling down the bottom, but the squad needed a complete overhaul, it needed re-generating.

The wage bill needed to be brought under control.

The last manager's style of football, negative, dour, defensive etc. needed to go. You can't win enough playing that way. You have to try to win, to win.

If we rule out Randy or anyone else from financially doping us, then we need to get a set of players that are a genuine team - not just 11 mercenaries who co-operate, but who are mates and who evolve together.

I'm not comparing our club to these two examples, just the method - Barcelona and Man U were both most successful when they had a core of their own home grown players forming the bulk of their sides, with one or two quality additions bought in for decent fees, and another few low rent players who always do well - Dennis Irwin types.

We can do that, and it seems to be the model Randy and Paul Lambert are aiming at. They haven't got there yet, and some of the execution of it is wonky, but it looks like the "plan".

Now to the point about supporters paying 50 quid each and filling the ground. No, wrong on so many levels. Morally and in actuality.

There's the "value for money" test. UK ticket prices are scandalous in the main. Charging 50 quid to watch Villa v Stoke is never going to be a go'er, and it's not the answer anyway. Do Dortmund charge 50 quid a ticket. No. They charge 15 Euros for an adult terrace place for a league game.

Man U used to be one of the cheaper grounds, and it's only now they are successful over a long period that they've gone expensive, and that's due to the Glory effect. Man City, when they were ordinary used to get 30,000 or so people going to games. Now they get 45000 or so, and are inching their prices up.

So start with affordable, value for money prices, fill the ground, then maybe increase the prices for a better "product". You can't do anything else and succeed, especially in a recession.

Gate receipts form only a small part of revenue. Sponsorship and merchandising deals for successful sides are the major non-TV revenue earners.

Basically you need to be good to get the revenue, not try and get the revenue first, in order to buy expensive players.

This is what leads to the plan to home grow a squad. Additionally, the cost of growing your own is outside the FFP regulations, to an extent.

Also, if you have affordable tickets, you get bigger crowds, which means a better experience for fans and players. It creates a buzz, you get more "home" decisions for penalties and the like. You get more home wins. And it carries to away support. Win-win.

There is also the size of club thing to consider. Clubs from the big Cities have the fanbases to get to the top 6. The likes of Leeds, Newcastle, Everton Villa, Sunderland, Spurs, Sheff Wed etc. Wherever they are now, they can get there. It's possible. it's not possible to do it if you're Swansea, or Reading. There just isn't the underlying large potential fanbase, to eventually sustain the thing. They will get managers and players lured away, even if they do well, or maybe more so, if they do well.

That said having someone lured away can happen to anyone. If Man U have a player lured away, they have the cachet to get someone else in. It's not so easy if you're Swansea. They might do it one, or maybe twice, but they can't keep doing it.

You could argue, fairly, that it's happened to Villa - Barry, Young, Downing, Milner etc. It becomes a vicious circle. If it happens you have to have the stable environment there - training, scouting, managerial etc. to replace them effectively. Where you have a different manager every season, with different ideas, you've no chance, as the squad never gets to evolve into a coherent set up to perform consistently in the way the manager wants. It takes about 3 years to mould a squad. Anything less and you have a mix of misfits that the new manager doesn't rate or who don't suit the possession/long ball/counter attacking/whatever style of play. So stability is crucial. It's a baby and bathwater thing.

The last thing is a mood music one. If the noises coming from a club are all about discord - whether it's the manager arguing with the board, or the board with supporters, or the manager with supporters - you're goosed. This is why a club needs to be clear and open. "This is what we're about, this is our ethos, and this is our aim" and stick to it. IF you're about open communication and all that, don't suddenly reverse your actions if people start communicating their disagreement. Don't say "the fans are the most important people" unless you mean it and act like it. We're not the most important people, Sky bloody telly are. But that's another subject altogether.

[Big_John_10]

We can do that, and it seems to be the model Randy and Paul Lambert are aiming at. They haven't got there yet, and some of the execution of it is wonky, but it looks like the "plan".

I agree with a lot of what you posted. And yes there needs to be a new approach to how the club is run from top to bottom if we want to get back around the top 4 challenge again.

But right now I think it's only a positive assumption that this is the plan. From what we've seen you could also argue the plan could be to just survive in the league while cutting costs.

It sounds like a great plan but I'm not currently convinced that this is what we're going for.

Relegation would be awful for this plan and yet our owner provided the most pathetic backing in January when the squad needed more. I'm not sure that massively gambling with our premiership survival shows we have an owner who is fully committed to a plan that puts us back up there.

[blandy]

Yes, I agree it is just a “positive assumption” that this is the plan. Equally, it’s just a “negative assumption” that there isn’t a plan, or the plan is “just survive”. I also agree there’s no clear evidence, in black and white to confirm either opinion.

 

It may be that the plan is essentially, stick to certain principles, financially and in football terms, and just try to do as well as we can within those “rules”. It’s kind of what Arsenal do, under Wenger - they have a way of operating, and that’s what you get. I kind of like that. I don’t like the financial arms race type of model which is all about, just spending more and more money from whatever source. That mentality is just alien to me, and in my view a bad thing.

 

I also agree, obviously, that relegation would be awful, in its effects (whatever the plan is).

 

I also agree it’s a shame that the club didn’t find the necessary ingredient in January. Some experience in midfield, and left back, basically. It looks like Lambo spent all the money in the summer, and that’s that. He had a fair old budget, too. As others have said, he got 20 odd million in the summer - more than many other clubs spent.

 

It ought to have been enough to stay up, whatever the weaknesses and need for rebuilding. We’ll see.

[The Fun Factory]

I wonder if Lerner can stil be arsed with Villa. He has sunk a lot of capitial into the club and effectively we are in the same or worse postion then when he bought the club in those summer days of 2006. Doug might have been an annoying old git but he had the last laugh- he never put any of his cash into Villa and got a nice £20 mil payoff when he sold up. Still at least the old boy still comes to the games- Lerner hasnt for years.Obviously the  Man City take over totally blew us out of the water and we have never looked like challenging for the top spots since. We can talk about it for days but Lerner bascially gave O'Neill far too much trust in transfers and wages, and we are still paying the price 3 years on. Houllier was a experiment that went wrong, McClueless  was a omishambles and the jury is still out on Lambert.

 

What is the most disapointing thing for me is that under Randy, Villa still havent seem to be marketed well enough.I thought americians were good at this!  We all thought under Doug, Villa were always under sold.  If I remember they brought in some big PR guys, and then nothing happened. A good team helps hugely of course, but even under MON's days we didnt sell out no where near enough. Villa skirts were and still are, hard to buy in shops outside the midlands. Clubs like Spurs have a far better 'brand' than us. I know its mostly down to them being good at the moment, but some of it is still marketing.

 

The North Stand rebuild is totally dead in the water and we face going further back into the pack when West Spam get a free 60,000 stadium. Liverpool are still spending huge amounts whilst United  and the rest of the champions league teams are lightyears ahead of us. I dont know how we can catch up other than trying to stick to our current plan of youth development and buying rough diamonds. Unless Lerner is Billy Beane in disguise, this isnt going to have a happy ending.

 

7 years on and we still dont know him at all. We dont want a return to a Doug type chairman talking nonsense all the times (like a son to me etc, etc) but Randy has to make clear what he wants out of Villa, even if he is uncomfortable in the lime light. My gut feeling is that he tried to get us top four which failed. He has know going to try and recoup the money under Lambert's policies and if we stay up, look to sell in a few years time.

[The Fun Factory]

Crap- meant shirts, not skirts. Fat fingers!

[Woodytom]

I wouldnt pay £50 for a ticket if we won the league.

 

As it stands now its a complete rip off.

[PaulC]

I wonder if Lerner can stil be arsed with Villa. He has sunk a lot of capitial into the club and effectively we are in the same or worse postion then when he bought the club in those summer days of 2006. Doug might have been an annoying old git but he had the last laugh- he never put any of his cash into Villa and got a nice £20 mil payoff when he sold up. Still at least the old boy still comes to the games- Lerner hasnt for years.Obviously the  Man City take over totally blew us out of the water and we have never looked like challenging for the top spots since. We can talk about it for days but Lerner bascially gave O'Neill far too much trust in transfers and wages, and we are still paying the price 3 years on. Houllier was a experiment that went wrong, McClueless  was a omishambles and the jury is still out on Lambert.

 

What is the most disapointing thing for me is that under Randy, Villa still havent seem to be marketed well enough.I thought americians were good at this!  We all thought under Doug, Villa were always under sold.  If I remember they brought in some big PR guys, and then nothing happened. A good team helps hugely of course, but even under MON's days we didnt sell out no where near enough. Villa skirts were and still are, hard to buy in shops outside the midlands. Clubs like Spurs have a far better 'brand' than us. I know its mostly down to them being good at the moment, but some of it is still marketing.

 

The North Stand rebuild is totally dead in the water and we face going further back into the pack when West Spam get a free 60,000 stadium. Liverpool are still spending huge amounts whilst United  and the rest of the champions league teams are lightyears ahead of us. I dont know how we can catch up other than trying to stick to our current plan of youth development and buying rough diamonds. Unless Lerner is Billy Beane in disguise, this isnt going to have a happy ending.

 

7 years on and we still dont know him at all. We dont want a return to a Doug type chairman talking nonsense all the times (like a son to me etc, etc) but Randy has to make clear what he wants out of Villa, even if he is uncomfortable in the lime light. My gut feeling is that he tried to get us top four which failed. He has know going to try and recoup the money under Lambert's policies and if we stay up, look to sell in a few years time.

Good post! Forget Blues Villa are representatives of the 2nd City but we don't really match up. The fan base is there but we rarely sell out. even when we won the league in 81 we only averaged 33,000. West Ham have never been as big as us and they have the Olympic but they are only renting it and I wonder if the will fill it. You could be right Lerner thought he could make us into a an Arsenal or Liverpool but Man City takeover destroyed everything.

[TRO]

To be fair to MON, He consistently said that to compete at the top end of the Premiership you haven to go on investing just to stand still. That's what Lerner couldn't do. He just ran out of money as far as I can see and we have been taking be consequences for the last 3 seasons.

 

 

No, what Lerner could not do is continually finance over the odds transfer fee's and wages to sub standard players.

 

Neither can Tony Fernandes and Ellis short.

[PaulC]

Yes the big money signings like Young, Downing and Milner were good. But there was just too much dross bought.

[briny_ear]

 

To be fair to MON, He consistently said that to compete at the top end of the Premiership you haven to go on investing just to stand still. That's what Lerner couldn't do. He just ran out of money as far as I can see and we have been taking be consequences for the last 3 seasons.

 

 

No, what Lerner could not do is continually finance over the odds transfer fee's and wages to sub standard players.

 

Neither can Tony Fernandes and Ellis short.

 

We've had this debate a million times and I'm quite bored with it but no-one has yet explained how spending on players that some fans consider to meet the standard is more affordable than spending on players that some fans consider below standard. Lerner just couldn't afford to spend as much as he did on the club and he panicked and pulled the  plug with inevitable results, not helped by two of the most stupid managerial appointments in the history of the premier league.