markavfc40 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 (edited) In the Soccernomics book, which has very deep statistical analysis on this issue, it says there is a direct correlation between wages and success. Its obvious really, more money = better players. That is the bottom line really isn't it. The clubs that finish in the top 6/7 this season will in the main contain those clubs with the top 6/7 wage bills. Of course you will always get the odd exception with a club over achieving/under achieving. To get sustained success though, or relative sustained success, then you will have to spend big on wages. Edited February 2, 2013 by markavfc40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Its one thing spending big on wages, but you have to ensure the best you can that those big earners CAN DELIVER. IF they fail to deliver that is where the nub of the problem is in my view. I don't see Rand'ys 200 mill spent in isolation as a problem.....EXCEPT that it can't be sustained if you keep **** up with poor signings. What I see as a MAJOR problem is the lack of quality we got for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackbauer24 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Forgetting the how we got here story, the situation is we can't afford to compete. Rightly, or wrongly, you have to be able to pay the astronomical wages that players get in the richest league in the world. For whatever reason we can no longer do that. It doesn't matter if your name is Aston Villa, Wigan, Bradford City or Manchester City - if you can't pay the going rate you get worse players. We can no longer afford to play in this division - in poker terms we can't afford the 'buy in' to play and therefore we also will not be eligible for the big prizes. The case of the matter is we obviously can't afford Premier League wages and I'm not overly fussed whether we survive by the skins of our teeth this season or not, it's coming eventually unless we have more investment. There's no point arguing whether we should pay this amount or that amount if the simple fact of the matter is we have no money. We can't afford to play this game at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 (edited) Forgetting the how we got here story, the situation is we can't afford to compete. Rightly, or wrongly, you have to be able to pay the astronomical wages that players get in the richest league in the world. For whatever reason we can no longer do that. It doesn't matter if your name is Aston Villa, Wigan, Bradford City or Manchester City - if you can't pay the going rate you get worse players. We can no longer afford to play in this division - in poker terms we can't afford the 'buy in' to play and therefore we also will not be eligible for the big prizes. The case of the matter is we obviously can't afford Premier League wages and I'm not overly fussed whether we survive by the skins of our teeth this season or not, it's coming eventually unless we have more investment. There's no point arguing whether we should pay this amount or that amount if the simple fact of the matter is we have no money. We can't afford to play this game at the moment. But it appears that teams with less income than us that can compete in this league....because they are doing better than us. So is your theory correct? It appears to me that some of our most successful players over the years have not been our big money signings. Edited February 2, 2013 by TRO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackbauer24 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Our current wages may be higher than some teams above us but the players we are aiming to use over the coming seasons (and even this season) are a lot less than the teams above and below us. Guzan, Lowton, Baker, Clark, Bennett, Al Ahmadi, Sylla, Weimann, Bannan, Albrighton, Bowery, Westwood and others will be on a lot less than the players that will be leaving this club at the end of the season. Our average wage was overly high, but we have swung too rapidly in the other direction and now can't compete with any Premier League teams on wages. I would be surprised if any of our newer signings (perhaps other than Vlaar) were on over £20/25k a week. Stupid money yes, but very cheap in Premier League terms. But I agree, Money doesn't equate to success (in either direction) but there is certainly a strong correlation and we can't afford to compete at the moment. How else can we not compete with the "likes of Newcastle and Stoke"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troglodyte Posted February 2, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted February 2, 2013 If we increase wages, going on the 'higher wages = higher league position' idea (which is straight forward and logical) then we will most probably continue operating at a loss. However, this is what so many football teams do. Conclusion? Football is broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markeefc Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I can't understand why things are so financially tight compared to other clubs that we should be at the same level as. Isd there some underlying financial predicament that we don't know about.? Are we at risk of administration? Has RL just given up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyBM Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 i dont beleive that we cant afford to compete in this league, i just think that the negotiations of contracts were badly managed to an extent its cost us heavily getting rid of the high earners (because lets be honest, they arent going to be willing to take a pay cut) is clearly a priority, however it shouldnt be the main priority the main priority should be making sure the team is strong enough to keep going in this league, eventually, the books will balance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 Forgetting the how we got here story, the situation is we can't afford to compete. Rightly, or wrongly, you have to be able to pay the astronomical wages that players get in the richest league in the world. For whatever reason we can no longer do that. It doesn't matter if your name is Aston Villa, Wigan, Bradford City or Manchester City - if you can't pay the going rate you get worse players. We can no longer afford to play in this division - in poker terms we can't afford the 'buy in' to play and therefore we also will not be eligible for the big prizes. The case of the matter is we obviously can't afford Premier League wages and I'm not overly fussed whether we survive by the skins of our teeth this season or not, it's coming eventually unless we have more investment. There's no point arguing whether we should pay this amount or that amount if the simple fact of the matter is we have no money. We can't afford to play this game at the moment. Depends what you mean by " have no money " - We have an owner who a few months back sold one of his assets for around 1 billion dollars - so he has the money - he has just grown tired of throwing it at AVFC. in his first few years he was prepared to cover the losses we made and fund the high earners. Now he isn't - He also isn't prepared to employ people to grow our business. Sadly his sole plan to cut expenditure - so that the club can cover it with its income. Whilst that may sound fine, he may find that the income will fall faster than he can ever cut expenditure - but by the time dopy lerner realises this - god knows what division we will be in. People are calling the MON era reckless - but actually the path we are pursuing now is equally so.....we loose £50m revenue if we go down - thats as bad as any spending spree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Can we all agree then that actually bombing out the high earners - and replacing them with players on 5k & 10k isn't the way forward Its already cost us £70m in TV money, No it hasn't. FACT. /close thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Troglodyte Posted February 2, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted February 2, 2013 You're right, but please don't do that 'FACT' thing. And it doesn't necessarily mean that there's no debate to be had. It's just that, as I posted earlier, smetrov (and others) are jumping to conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vandaq Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I have a question! Or, two actually. If we were to be relegated, what do you think we would bring in the summer window? By then, the biggest earners will be out and we will probably get to sell bent and ireland if we are lucky. And the same question except we stay in the league. Would he invest heavily then you reckon? This question bothers me a lot, because if we are going with this strategy it will take a long frickin time to get anywhere considering benteke and few others might leave either way. This club might be in total shit then if we were to go down and lose our key players. Buying some shit from league 1-2 won`t save us then. I don`t want anything crazy or nothing like that but I would like to be able to get some pretty decent players, not in the league that man city is in but better than this at least. There are so many questions to be asked about what are goal and plan for the future is, and that is the exact problem. What the hell is our future? Just get a manager and have shit wages just to barely stay up in PL? What kind of a goal is that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 You're right, but please don't do that 'FACT' thing. Yes, and can I put in a similar plea for "End of" (less seen these days, thank the risen Christ), and "That is all" (just use a **** full stop). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slabsquare Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 This is the thinking I have the greatest difficulty in dealing with - the idea that Randy Lerner is somehow an observer in this process, who has now had to step in to stop what was happening. It was HIS "strategy" all along. Phase 1 - let's go for top 4. Let's spend big on young players who will get us there. Nearly did it - OMG, we have some injuries in our defence, let's panic buy a whole new defence who can maintain the challenge. Phase 2 - hang on, I can't afford this. Let's sell to buy - oops, there goes MON. Oh well Kevin Mac says he can do it with the youth team, let's give him a go. Hmm, or maybe I meant Gerard Houllier? OK, let's buy Bent for the largest fee ever paid for a Villa player ever, phew! relegation avoided. Phase 3 - shame about Gerard, I know, how about Alex McLeish (letter of recommendation from Sralex). Oh dear, nearly relegated again and the fans hate him and the players he brought in are rubbish. Phase 4 - OK, Paul Lambert, let's recruit an almost entirely new team who don't cost too much, drive out the remaining players on premier league pay and hope for the best. Sorry Paul, you must have misheard if you thought there would be money for players in January. Ah well, if we go down, Paul will get us back up... Lerner has made many mistakes, and you have outlined most of them above - he is a well-intentioned but naive man who appears to have inherited his father's huge fortune but little of his business sense. But his biggest errors were, as goes for the rest of us, falling for the Cult of O'Neill so totally, and ceding so much financial control to a man who clearly acts only for himself and had no concern for the impact of his behaviour on the long-term future of the club. O'Neill is a good defensive organiser and motivator who is reliant on long-ball tactics to achieve results. He brought in more bad players than good, often for inflated fees and on exhorbitant salaries, then refused to use many of them or realised himself that they weren't good enough, and stormed off in a hissy-fit when he was told that his strategy was unsustainable. He used the club to bolster his reputation and to earn the lavish praise of an inexplicably adoring and unquestioning media who, where Villa are concerned, forever seem incapable of scratching below the surface, looking at the wider picture and putting things into context. His misuse of Lerner's money, and his abuse of the trust placed in him, was reckless and contemptible in the extreme. He is an over-rated egotist who cannot take blame for his actions, and cares nothing for the mess which he created and ran away from. Lerner appears to be past his sell-by date and, whatever happens between now and the end of the season (and I think we all know deep down what is going to happen), he should sell up, both for the sake of the club and for the sake of his own financial future. But however much the state of my club frustrates me, and however much I have grown to despise the moral cess pit of modern football in which morons, bullies, yobs, sociopaths, and self-absorbed, shallow ego-maniacs like Alex Ferguson, Suarez and Terry, Robbie Savage, Alan Green and a whole host of others are feted, rewarded and allowed to prosper unchallenged, I despise Martin O'Neill more than any of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyBM Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 /\ that basically sums everything up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Crikey, I hope you feel better for getting that off your chest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Depends what you mean by " have no money " - We have an owner who a few months back sold one of his assets for around 1 billion dollars - so he has the money - he has just grown tired of throwing it at AVFC. in his first few years he was prepared to cover the losses we made and fund the high earners. Now he isn't - He also isn't prepared to employ people to grow our business. Sadly his sole plan to cut expenditure - so that the club can cover it with its income. Whilst that may sound fine, he may find that the income will fall faster than he can ever cut expenditure - but by the time dopy lerner realises this - god knows what division we will be in. People are calling the MON era reckless - but actually the path we are pursuing now is equally so.....we loose £50m revenue if we go down - thats as bad as any spending spree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I would say fruitless rather than reckless....referring to the quality we got back for our money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyBM Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 if oneill had bought the right players in the first place, we wouldnt be in this mess, what on earth made him think that half the players he bought was any good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 if oneill had bought the right players in the first place, we wouldnt be in this mess, Not sure how a manager finds out who are the "right" players but they would be pretty expensive because every manager would want them! For the umpteenth time, it's not about the players being "right" or "good" (opinion). It's about the fact that Lerner committed to a massive wage bill that neither the club's income nor his personal wealth, could sustain (fact). We would have had to sell them off and buy cheaper players however.good they had been. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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