smetrov Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 95/100 you lose with 20% possession? Thanks for clearing everything up with some facts. I fail to see why, when we score 3 very good goals and as far as I can remember Southampton didn't miss any sitters people are complaining that much. Despite poor possession we always looked dangerous. We were away from home against a team that hasn't lost at home and actually pass the ball around really well. We were always going to have poor possession but who cares? We hit them on the break which was no doubt Lambert's plan and we won. How the manager doesn't deserve credit for us winning the way he wanted us to is beyond me. Hitting on the break is a tactic, having 20% possession is a result of being inept on the ball. We won despite the tactics, not because of them. We got lucky. I found it hilarious and am not going to complain about the 3 points. But to try to say this was some kind of tactical masterstroke is plain bollocks. Best use of available resources. I am pretty sure Lambo knows that long term this style won't cut it. Be he has very cheaply built a workman like team - lets hope the players he purchases from now on can supplement the basics that we have in place. In the meantime - we ain't pretty - but were no mugs either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndFos Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 (edited) 2 losses in the last 10 games in the league, a record only bettered by Everton, Chelsea and Arsenal. Doing ok Edited December 4, 2013 by AndFos 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw_nuff Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Possession has always been an irrelevant statistic. Tell Barcelona that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samjp26 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 2 losses in the last 10 games in the league, a record only bettered by Chelsea and Arsenal. Doing ok Is that actually a fact? Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
botak Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 If you understood probability, it is true that luck evens out. not over the course of a season though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villarocker Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 A couple of years back I moaned like crazy at Houllier for trying to get a pair of cloggers like Dunne and Collins to pass it around from the back. We got hurt a few times and thought to myself "what's he doing? They're not Barcelona. Get it up the pitch where our better players are." I didn't expect to see that situation develop with Vlaar and Clark because those two are quite good footballers. Obviously, Lambert hasn't been impressed with the footballing qualities of our defenders, hence the "play it long to the forwards and hope the midfielders win the second ball" tactic that seems to have become popular. No matter what we might think of it, and I personally do think it could lead to a few scary results, it certainly paid dividends tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw_nuff Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 If you understood probability, it is true that luck evens out. As much as I appreciate your sentiment and philosophy, mathmatically, that's not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 You don't keep being lucky though - were we luck against Man City, Arsenal, WBA ? - Luck can nick you the odd game - but if you're consistently picking up points you are doing something right. Its the opposite of WBA who before tonight were bemoaning how unlucky they had been .....maybe in a one off ....but not over time. This isn't a great villa team by any stretch - but give us any chance of winning a game and we will take it......... Regardless of whether or not it applies to us this season, if you understand probability then yes you can keep getting lucky. The idea that luck evens itself out over a season is obviously not true. Well take the wba game - its was albions errors that mean the game wasn't out of sight - and we seized upon that. It was WBA'S own fault they didn't get all 3 points - whilst we made the best of a dire situation..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw_nuff Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 A couple of years back I moaned like crazy at Houllier for trying to get a pair of cloggers like Dunne and Collins to pass it around from the back. We got hurt a few times and thought to myself "what's he doing? They're not Barcelona. Get it up the pitch where our better players are." I didn't expect to see that situation develop with Vlaar and Clark because those two are quite good footballers. Obviously, Lambert hasn't been impressed with the footballing qualities of our defenders, hence the "play it long to the forwards and hope the midfielders win the second ball" tactic that seems to have become popular. No matter what we might think of it, and I personally do think it could lead to a few scary results, it certainly paid dividends tonight. Our luck continues. Long may it hold out (fingers crossed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 This is the thing I like about Lambert....just when you think we're plodding along he'll pull a result out of the bag (usually away) like tonight that again gives me hope with a litte more backing and the team continuing to mature there are better days ahead for us. Today reminded me a bit of Liverpool away last season in terms of surprise but that was a false dawn, hopefully we can win at Fulham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndFos Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 2 losses in the last 10 games in the league, a record only bettered by Chelsea and Arsenal. Doing ok Is that actually a fact? Wow Sorry, missed Everton. A record only bettered by Everton, Arsenal and Chelsea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vandaq Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 You can say that again HH. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kwan Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 If you understood probability, it is true that luck evens out. As much as I appreciate your sentiment and philosophy, mathmatically, that's not true. Mathematically, it is true. Now, will it happen over the course of one season? Unlikely. But the way the ball bounces evens out over thousands of simulations hence why it's stupid to complain that we were lucky or unlucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Evening Gents, Well, I reckons that wasn't a bas three points eh? Just to start with - since many on here like to talk tactics as such - I thought every decision made prior to the match was completely vindicated tonight. Benteke dropped. Hasn't been playing anywhere near good enough and if you allow him to keep playing when he is not doing the business then it sends out the wrong message to the rest of the squad. Big call but worked out perfectly. Clearly, the way Southampton play they risk leaving their central defenders man for man hence why playing Gabby through the middle was a great option. Plus Kozak got a goal so think that was a great call. Next, the shape of the team. Now as I suggested prior to kick-off, the way to play against them is to go 3-5-2 (before someone points out I know that then becomes five at the back when defending which it was for most of the match) but the shape and tactics were spot on. Yes, they has plenty of the ball but that was expected. The plan was to turn them and get in behind them and it worked a treat. You don't need to boss the ball to win a game. That has been proven now. Yes, it might not be great on the eye like many would like but right now, as I've said before and I will repeat, points matter more than anything. Considering the fixture list, I'd say we've had a more than decent return so far. Evening Gents, Well, I reckons that wasn't a bas three points eh? Just to start with - since many on here like to talk tactics as such - I thought every decision made prior to the match was completely vindicated tonight. Benteke dropped. Hasn't been playing anywhere near good enough and if you allow him to keep playing when he is not doing the business then it sends out the wrong message to the rest of the squad. Big call but worked out perfectly. Clearly, the way Southampton play they risk leaving their central defenders man for man hence why playing Gabby through the middle was a great option. Plus Kozak got a goal so think that was a great call. Next, the shape of the team. Now as I suggested prior to kick-off, the way to play against them is to go 3-5-2 (before someone points out I know that then becomes five at the back when defending which it was for most of the match) but the shape and tactics were spot on. Yes, they has plenty of the ball but that was expected. The plan was to turn them and get in behind them and it worked a treat. You don't need to boss the ball to win a game. That has been proven now. Yes, it might not be great on the eye like many would like but right now, as I've said before and I will repeat, points matter more than anything. Considering the fixture list, I'd say we've had a more than decent return so far. sorry for the stutter Any news on Vlaar ? Is Lambo planning to make us pretty any time in the future ? - or is this the end game ? (Serious question - not a dig) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vandaq Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Got it right today. Really love what Lambert is doing here, <---Fanboy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Top man top manager Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
botak Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 anyway, 20% possession is not simply a statistic, it is indicative of a total inability to pass the football. I don't understand how anyone could not be concerned about this. Much as it is great to be clinical on the counter, imagine how good we could be if we had even an average level of ball retention skills. You can have 70% possession and still be great on the counter. Possession and counter attacking are not mutually exclusive skills. The fact we are the worst team in possession in the league can only result from bad coaching/tactics, unless you believe we have the worst ball players in the league. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kwan Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 (edited) Except we weren't looking to keep and pass the ball. The name of the game was to nick it and then launch balls over the top over their high line. Since their fullbacks press up so much, it's easy to get into 2v3 or 2v2 situations. Is it pretty? Is it what a purist wants? Is it even mildly entertaining? No. But it works in specific circumstances and that's what Lambert understands. It is not a coincidence in the games that we've had the lowest amount of possession, we have won or gotten points. It is when teams sit back and make us pass it around that we struggle. Is that coaches? Tactics? Form? Players? It's a lot of things, but right now we can do one thing WAY better than the other. Edited December 4, 2013 by Kwan 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 (edited) anyway, 20% possession is not simply a statistic, it is indicative of a total inability to pass the football. I don't understand how anyone could not be concerned about this. Much as it is great to be clinical on the counter, imagine how good we could be if we had even an average level of ball retention skills. You can have 70% possession and still be great on the counter. Possession and counter attacking are not mutually exclusive skills. The fact we are the worst team in possession in the league can only result from bad coaching/tactics, unless you believe we have the worst ball players in the league. Lighten up, we just won Edited December 4, 2013 by StefanAVFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 anyway, 20% possession is not simply a statistic, it is indicative of a total inability to pass the football. I don't understand how anyone could not be concerned about this. Much as it is great to be clinical on the counter, imagine how good we could be if we had even an average level of ball retention skills. You can have 70% possession and still be great on the counter. Possession and counter attacking are not mutually exclusive skills. The fact we are the worst team in possession in the league can only result from bad coaching/tactics, unless you believe we have the worst ball players in the league. If youre paying on average £2m a player - somethings gotta give - you could buy the likes of ssessengon (wba) who looks very pretty ball - but is totally ineffective - or Have Kozak who plays horribly - but makes a nusance of himself and has popped up with match winning goals...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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