Bollitics Europe - in / out / shake it all about

[chrisp65]

So, Cameron has given the right side of his party the in / out referendum they so wanted. Or has he? There are a lot of if's along the way before it happens, but essentially, he's said that should the tories win a majority and form an old fashioned single party government next time around, then it's on.

What's more, it'll happen half way through the next parliament. So, doing the maths, they won't start negotiating in advance of the next parliament and we'll vote on the resulted negotiated 'deal' at the half way point.

So he's given himself 2 years from start to finish to persuade 26 other  countries that we are a special case that should operate by different rules.

Interesting times ahead, and if we could run a few parallel universes, I'd quite like them to win the next election just to see how that pans out.

 

So, in or out?

[bickster]

Cameron won't be Tory leader by then. Nor will the Tories win the next election

This has nothing to do with actually wanting a referendum on Europe, it is rather sabre rattling to 1) appease the right in his own party and 2) to try and reduce the perceived threat from the Little Englander Party (just for Tony ;-) )

UKIP won't win many if any seats at the next election but they will split the Tory vote if this referendum isn't promised. Also this will keep some of his own party quiet for a while (not for that long though). If the Tories & Cameron do somehow cling to power (I can't see it personally, with the SellOut Party at an all time low and that is their only chance) then it'll be pretty funny watching them trying to assemble a cabinet of ministers who all have to campaign to stay in Europe. If Cameron is ousted as I suspect before the next election then the game changes considerably, they'll be even more unelectable as they will have lurched even further to the right making them even less attractive to the floaters.

Maybe someone should hand Cameron the paddle as his canoe is adrift up shit creek.

Oh and for the record - IN

[Chindie]

In.

And I sincerely doubt the referendum will ever happen. Its posturing as Bicks said, that will come back to bite us/Cameron if we ever really need to get something from the EU in the near future, and help the Tories a little, but little else.

You're naive if you think something this important and far reaching is going to be decided by Joe Public.

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

I'm undecided. I believe in autonomy, but I don't know if it is financially beneficial, and in an increasingly market-driven world, I don't know if we can afford to step away from the EU.

 

I need to read more before I make my mind up.

Edited January 24, 2013 by CarewsEyebrowDesigner

[chrisp65]

I thought it was an interesting tictac from the French today to offer to 'roll out the red carpet' for all those businesses currently based in the UK or considering the UK that feel they need to be based 'in europe'.

 

I do suspect that your average tory MP sees the advantage of being outside the standard euro rules means that we won't need to have the same worker's rights or health n safety or working hours or redundancy. Their belief being, that this will give us an economic edge causing businesses to come here rather than euroland.

 

This could indeed prove to be true.

 

But all the 'good' done by those businesses that identify our 'flexible' economy coming to Britain will be undone and undermined by Joe Pleb not having the confidence or longevity of contract to spend / invest. We will be in the usual tory trap of being bewildered as to why cutting jobs, wages and security has somehow lead to a lower tax take. 

[tonyh29]

Out for me ,

 

Eurozone is growing at somethign like 1 %  , India , China and Turkey at around 7% .. so this fallacy that if we pull out of Europe we are dead is just scaremongering ..there are better markets we can make our own deals with , and without having to pay a few hundred million a year for the privilege

 

that Cameron has made the promise so far ahead already tells me that we 'aint ever getting the vote though

 

on paper a good move from Cameron though , he's jumped on a popular bandwagon before Ed could get on it and he may just be able to claw voters lost to UKIP back .. I still think the Libs implosion has gifted labour the next election , it's only the 2 Eds' that give the Tories a faint glimmer of hope

Edited January 23, 2013 by tonyh29

[bickster]

Well well, apart from the in - out polarisation it seems Tony shares my analysis

[bickster]

I thought it was an interesting tictac from the French today to offer to 'roll out the red carpet' for all those businesses currently based in the UK or considering the UK that feel they need to be based 'in europe'.

Retaliation for Camerons offer to roll out the red carpet for those affected by some French Tax change about a year ago iirc.

[Xann]

Do we really trust most member countries with EU funding?

 

The old guard: Spain, Portugal and Greece are ropey at best.

 

Italy is just all round comedy corruption gold with a twist of organised crime. Many new Eastern European members share Italy's problems, but with less comedy.

 

European integration is worth working towards, but the bureaucracy has be be both fit for purpose and accountable. Unlike what was going on during Kinnock's time abroad.

[islingtonclaret]

In - too big a market for us to get out at the moment, but I do see why people are posting that we should be looking elsewhere. For the record, I really, really want more intergration with the rest of Europe. But the lot that are running it currently are making FIFA look smalltime.

[Awol]

First of all Bicks is right, there won't be a Tory majority in 2015 unless they eventually find Maddie tied up under Miliband's bed. In that sense it's a bluff from Cameron to a) buy off his own party and unite them behind him, and try to stem the bleeding of support from the Tory base to UKIP. However I think it will be an issue used so effectively against Labour who currently oppose giving the public a say that they will change their position before 2015 and make a referendum part of their election manifesto too. Therefore I think the next Parliament will see a referendum, regardless of who gets in.

As to 'in or out' it would depend entirely on what the theoretical negotiation could deliver. If it was the relationship we have today versus leaving then I'd vote for out, but Cameron's intent to enshrine the principle that the UK will not participate in "ever closer union" is a game changer for me, if he can get it. That would exclude us from the on going drive towards a Federal super-state that the EU institutions openly support, thus mantaining UK as a soveriegn state within a looser assocation of democratic nations.

My personal beef with the EU has always been based on democracy, i.e. the elctorate must be able to sack the people who make our laws and replace them if we so choose. The EU has removed that ability (approx 70% of our laws are made in Europe, beyond accountability to the people) which is something I cannot accept as being right or democratic, in fact it's a dangerous departure from common sense, imo. The EU undoubtedly delivers benefits but equally they come at a cost so the analysis currently being undertaken across government will form a good starting point to begin informing the public on the issues. Hopefully that debate will focus on substance and filter out the shrill background noise from both sides. Fat chance of that happening but we'll see.

Read the other day that the CIA covertly poured millions into the "yes" campaign in 1975, so expect the same sort of underhand tactics again this time round - the BBC which gets a nice fat EU grant will no doubt also be blowing the trumpet for Brussels. It's interesting that many of the great and the good who say that an EU exit would leave the UK a baron and salted wasteland are exactly the same people who said the sky would fall and virgins would combust if we didn't join the Euro. Why anyone should now believe a word of what they say given their track record of incompetent analysis is highly debatable.

Whichever way it goes (and I think we all know Cameron isn't making a principled decision to empower the electorate here) it is absolutely right to give the public a say and confer democratic legitimacy on the future relationship of the UK with Europe. In 1975 people were told they were joining a Common Market, not a Political Union. Heath (nonce?) later admitted he'd lied his chops off quite deliberately about what people were voting on back then. If we are going to become part of a Federal European Union (and if we stay in without any change in the relationship then that is the eventual destination) then the decision is for the British people to make, and them alone.

[tonyh29]

The Icelandic PM's comments suggest the UK isn't isolated on its thoughts on Europe

He added: "It's quite clear both in my country and other parts of northern Europe that there is a growing scepticism about the way the European Union is moving forward.

"In the last three years the eurozone has revealed itself to be a different kind of animal.

"We have decided to take a pause, not to move forward at all in the coming months, and then to revisit the issue sometime later

[Eames]

In - but on the basis of significant reform - I can forsee a "two speed Europe" with the Northern European (UK included) states as part of the free market and a Southern Europe federation of states with Germany finally getting its way and occupying France on the sly.

[Dr_Pangloss]

First of all Bicks is right, there won't be a Tory majority in 2015 unless they eventually find Maddie tied up under Miliband's bed.

 

 

LOLOLOL

[LondonLax]

I'd be getting out of this country pretty quick smart if it ever left the EU. I can't see it happening though.

[tonyh29]

I'd be getting out of this country pretty quick smart if it ever left the EU. I can't see it happening though.

 

 

can I ask why ?  are you expecting the EU to launch a retaliation Armageddon or something ?

[LondonLax]

can I ask why ?  are you expecting the EU to launch a retaliation Armageddon or something ?

My fiencee is an EU national and a large number of my friends here are EU or other forign nationals. I don't want to be caught on this side of the border once the barriers go up.

[Awol]

My fiencee is an EU national and a large number of my friends here are EU or other forign nationals. I don't want to be caught on this side of the border once the barriers go up.

You make it sound like leaving the EU means the country becoming Colditz! I don't think there is any chance of people who are here and settled being hoiked out by men in jackboots, although that's probably the kind of image quite a lot of people would try to portray in the run up to a vote.

[tonyh29]

My fiencee is an EU national and a large number of my friends here are EU or other forign nationals. I don't want to be caught on this side of the border once the barriers go up.

 

so no rational reason then ...

 

as awol said above really  ...so this

[LondonLax]

Yeah yeah, well it could play out any number of ways.

Personally I'm very happy with the free movement of people around europe so I would rather be in a country that supports that rather the being in a country on the outside.

I'm not British, I don't have a nationalistic tie to this country. I will just move to a different one if this one loses it's free movement of people.

Edited January 24, 2013 by LondonLax