Bollitics Europe - in / out / shake it all about

[AVFCforever1991]

You make it out like we would end up like North Korea...

Edited January 24, 2013 by AVFCforever1991

[LondonLax]

It just seems like a total step backwards to me.

[tonyh29]

fair enough , apologies if any offence caused  with my "rational" comment

[snowychap]

Eurozone is growing at somethign like 1 %  , India , China and Turkey at around 7% .. so this fallacy that if we pull out of Europe we are dead is just scaremongering ..there are better markets we can make our own deals with

The problem with looking at it in those terms is that it presupposes that trade that is happening at the moment (with other EU member states) will continue as is, doesn't it?

I don't have an issue with a referendum but I wouldn't see the different sides being put forward in such a way that a vote would take place in anything other than a theatre of scaremongering, misinformation and, probably, outright lies.

I also doubt there'll be a referendum, even if Cameron were still PM in 2017.

[snowychap]

You make it sound like leaving the EU means the country becoming Colditz! I don't think there is any chance of people who are here and settled being hoiked out by men in jackboots, although that's probably the kind of image quite a lot of people would try to portray in the run up to a vote.

If a country leaves the EU (under article 50, is it?), do they also leave the EEA and do they then have to renegotiate their way back in?

Edit: Having skimmed through this article in the Economist, it would seem that anything after leaving the EU would have to be negotiated (probably as part of discussions about renegotiating current relationships, if you get what I mean).

Edited January 24, 2013 by snowychap

[Jon]

A big IN from this Europhile.

[mjmooney]

I honestly don't know. I'm a complete duffer when it comes to finance and economics, so I don't feel I have enough information to make a decision. That's why I'd rather leave this sort of decision to the "experts" - even though I know they have political dogma biases, and probably don't fully understand it themselves either (it would seem that nobody does, hence the shit we're in).

 

My voting to stay in would be for essentially emotive reasons - I'm broadly in favour of a move away from nation states and towards a more human-race-based view of the world. I'm well away that this is probably naive and overly idealistic, but it's no more or less valid than the "other" view, where people would vote us out because they adhere to a good-old-days view of Britain vs. Johnny Foreigner.

[Awol]

If a country leaves the EU (under article 50, is it?), do they also leave the EEA and do they then have to renegotiate their way back in?

As I understand it, Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is invoked and the EU is then legally bound to negotiate a free trade agreement with the departing nation. How it affects the EU nationals residing in Stalag Luft III at the point of UK departure I don't know, but logic would dictate that maasive repatriations are not going to happen, just as I wouldnt expect Brit's to be forced the other way on mass.

The scare stories that get deployed around this debate over time are going to be horrendous though.

[leviramsey]

My view isn't really worth much, but my view of the UK being in the EU is basically the same way I view the monarchy and the House of Lords:

In the absence of substantial constitutional reform to limit/separate the government from the Commons, just about any institution which even symbolically serves as a brake on what the government can do is essential. Not one of those brakes actually works in practice, but unless and until better brakes are installed, I'm not about to support cutting any of them.

Edited January 24, 2013 by leviramsey

[chrisp65]

is it actually an 'english' concept that 'we' all want to stay 'british'?

 

It's played right into the hands of the Scotty Nationals that one of the main attacks against Sots Independence was that they wouldn't be allowed in the EU. They can now claim, quite legitimately, that staying in the UK is more likley to result in an EU exit.

 

Cameron has volunteered to remove one of the main arguements the Scottish no campaign had.

 

I think, but have nothing to substantiate this, that Scotland and Wales are net benefactors from euro funding and grants.

[snowychap]

The scare stories that get deployed around this debate over time are going to be horrendous though.

Including using the phrase 'Stalag Luft'?

I think my point is that it's a much more complex thing than how it is presented on both sides. I really don't think it would be a case of 'logic dictating massive repatriations are not going to happen' - your opinion is that this would not happen and I'd tend to agree but I wouldn't rule it out (probably through incompetence and the bureaucratic intransigence that appears to be the backstop position of our Home Office/Border Agency).

Bearing in mind that one of the points oft repeated regarding the coalition's immigration policies is that they can't apply their changes to EU nationals (and all those in the EEA?) then I would have thought, unless the UK were able to specifically negotiate entry in to the EEA on leaving the EU, that the immigration policies that at that time applied to non-EEA nationals would therefore apply to all (as they would all be non EEA nationals). To get around this, the UK would need statutory transitional arrangements to apply to those EEA nationals here at this time and that may open up a much bigger can of worms.

[Awol]

Including using the phrase 'Stalag Luft'?

that was the image in my head after reading LL's post.

I think my point is that it's a much more complex thing than how it is presented on both sides. I really don't think it would be a case of 'logic dictating massive repatriations are not going to happen' - your opinion is that this would not happen and I'd tend to agree but I wouldn't rule it out (probably through incompetence and the bureaucratic intransigence that appears to be the backstop position of our Home Office/Border Agency).

Bearing in mind that one of the points oft repeated regarding the coalition's immigration policies is that they can't apply their changes to EU nationals (and all those in the EEA?) then I would have thought, unless the UK were able to specifically negotiate entry in to the EEA on leaving the EU, that the immigration policies that at that time applied to non-EEA nationals would therefore apply to all (as they would all be non EEA nationals). To get around this, the UK would need statutory transitional arrangements to apply to those EEA nationals here at this time and that may open up a much bigger can of worms.

It would undoubtedly be a complex process and I don't think anyone has the answers yet as to how the various scenarios play out, but in principle it seems unlikely that either the UK or any of the remaining EU nations (excluding the French) would be keen to poison the well, as it were.

Another factor that will undoubtedly shape this debate is the lifting of restrictions on movement within the EU for Bulgarians and Romanians in Jan next year. If as some predict the UK has another massive influx of unskilled labour from eastern Europe as a result then it's hard to imagine that not having a significant affect on this debate. Worth noting that the freedom of movement inside the EU is part of the single market agreement and not something Cameron is looking to reform.

[snowychap]

that was the image in my head after reading LL's post.

 

It would undoubtedly be a complex process and I don't think anyone has the answers yet as to how the various scenarios play out, but in principle it seems unlikely that either the UK or any of the remaining EU nations (excluding the French) would be keen to poison the well, as it were.

Which is why I think it would require transitional arrangements (foremost to cover the legal implications for employers) and that would be a very big discussion indeed (and one that we in the UK would have to take sole responsibility for at that point).

Another factor that will undoubtedly shape this debate is the lifting of restrictions on movement within the EU for Bulgarians and Romanians in Jan next year. If as some predict the UK has another massive influx of unskilled labour from eastern Europe as a result then it's hard to imagine that not having a significant affect on this debate.

True and I'd worry about how that will be used.

>Worth noting that the freedom of movement inside the EU is part of the single market agreement and not something Cameron is looking to reform.

That doesn't really matter if we were to leave the EU, does it? And isn't that part of the problem with Cameron's (public) position?

Edits: Messed up formatting.

Edited January 24, 2013 by snowychap

[Awol]

Snipped from the Condem Gov thread:

From a EU viewpoint, it could go either way - maybe it will harden attitudues towards the UK from the Continent, and they'll do less for or with us, or maybe they will decide that they don't want to "lose" us and it might stimulate changes.

Seems to be a split response: Southern Europe saying 'hell no', northern Europe saying 'maybe they've got a point here...', the French saying "we ate u anglo-saxon peeeigs".

The important part of that is the net contributors (excluding Les Bleus)to the EU are the one's who seem to be more open to this. Maybe that's because Cameron is saying he thinks the choice to make these changes should be opened up to all EU members and a few of the more dynamic nations might be thinking 'yes, we quite fancy a bit of that too'.

[Awol]

That doesn't really matter if we were to leave the EU, does it? And isn't that part of the problem with Cameron's (public) position?

Not if we leave it doesn't. Not sure exactly what you mean with reference to Cameron's position?

[snowychap]

Not if we leave it doesn't. Not sure exactly what you mean with reference to Cameron's position?

Isn't the backstop of his (public) position the UK leaving the EU (if x conditions are not met and the public say y)?

[rjw63]

Out.

[leviramsey]

Even if it meant no more Czech/Hungarian porn?

[LoughboroughLion]

In. 

 

Although the EU brings with it countless red tape and bureaucracy, I just don't think we would be in a better position if we left the single european economic marketplace. Plus I would imagine if we left we would face a lot of hostility from the traditional EU countries such as Germany, Spain etc. which wouldn't help with our trade levels. Unless we can propose a new single economic market with the BRIC countries, I see the EU as our best alternative.

 

For what it's worth also, I'm sure Cameron is simply using this referendum idea as a bargaining tool with the rest of Europe. A sort of bluff, if you want.

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

I think I would only vote 'out' if the Tories weren't in charge.

 

I know exactly what they would do and that is further their current line of action in making us a USA-lite. No thanks.

 

So, for me, this is the real issue. Am I happy for a more European way of life, and for the men upstairs to make decisions with little accountability, or take a risk and have more accountability in government, but a more American way of life?

 

In an ideal world the result of an 'in' vote would require the government at the time should look to change the EU as it currently stands, because right now it is not working.

 

A result of the 'out' vote would then require another referendum about getting rid/keeping the monarchy