DJBOB Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 23 hours ago, maqroll said: If Trump gets back in, it'll only be a matter of time before the army is unofficially operational inside Northern Mexico, commerce be damned. For the MAGA GOP it all boils down to brown people at the border, owning the LIbs in the culture wars and gutting the government agencies (and regulations) they don't want. I think for as much as he fantasizes about it - I'd be hard pressed to believe the corporate 'cabal' would actually want open warfare on the border. Bad for business. The border - like many of the other GOP fantasies - is a fun little tool to rile up the masses. But once in office, Trump has shown a reluctance to actually do anything and instead just use the trappings to enrich himself while Congress does a wet one doing nothing as well with the departmental administrations ignoring Congressional oversight in the never ending march towards increasing Executive power under GOP presidents. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 (edited) 23 hours ago, maqroll said: Will Farange-types in the U.K. view Trump's open hostility and threats to NATO as something to be worried about, or do they share a similar antipathy? It is truly incredible that the GOP is now unofficially platforming the idea that it's nominee for President is willing to extort America's historical allies under the threat of military annihilation. Or perhaps there would be no extortion at all, he'd just green light Putin and pull the US out of NATO, the bases in Germany and Italy, and whatever installations we have in Poland. Tbf, even the European bits of NATO would pummel the current Russian army conventionally in a defensive war. Poland's army is at this moment in time more than capable of doing that themselves, then you've got Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark with air superiority over pretty much anything Russia has, and a slowly awakening German\French industrial base. Trump wants us to panic over what he's said, I say we spend the 2% on Grippens, Leo2's, Caesars, NASAMs, Iris T, CV90's, Archers and the other more than on par kit we're producing in Europe. I'm quite sure that is what Trump is scared of with miltech companies in Europe being on par with your Lockheed Martins and General Dynamics. He's also likely angry that many NATO countries are looking to Europe and South Korea rather than overpriced US kit. Edited February 12 by magnkarl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 (edited) It’s a very valid point. Why do people think Trump will win, the fact he won once as the political unknown in 2016 against Hillary who wasn’t 100% liked within the Dem ranks and he was underestimated. Since then he’s been on a constant losing streak despite favourable polls…. Edited February 13 by nick76 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted February 13 VT Supporter Share Posted February 13 Biden is old and a rubbish President though. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68203820 Why US economy is powering ahead of Europe's Quote While countries around the world have struggled to recover from the economic setbacks brought on by the pandemic, one has emerged particularly strong. With a fast-growing economy, a strong labour market and falling inflation, the US has outpaced its counterparts in Europe and elsewhere. Quote In terms of GDP, it posted a 3.3% gain in the fourth quarter of 2023, far exceeding economists' expectations of 2%. That put the US at 2.5% over the course of the year, outpacing all other advanced economies and on track to do so again in 2024. "The US is holding up much better than other countries," said Ryan Sweet, Chief US Economist, Oxford Economics. "It seems like the engine of the US economy continues to hum along where it's sputtering in other nations." Quote The unemployment rate in the US has been below 4% since February 2022, which is on a par with historic lows. And while prices climbed steeply, real wages have risen too. Low-income households have seen some of the strongest real wage growth. The US has also enjoyed a productivity spike in 2023, growing at its fastest pace in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, sidcow said: Biden is old and a rubbish President though. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68203820 Why US economy is powering ahead of Europe's What the anti-Ukraine idiots in the GOP doesn't want to realise is that a lot of that growth is down to the Ukraine aid bills. Essentially every US dollar 'donated' went into US military industry and then they sent old kit to Ukraine. It baffles me that so many Republican senators are so against Ukraine aid when it's literally keeping their own states alive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr_Dogg Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, sidcow said: Biden is old and a rubbish President though. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68203820 Why US economy is powering ahead of Europe's The US economy has defied economic theory where inflation has dropped or stabilised without unemployment rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, sidcow said: Biden is old and a rubbish President though. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68203820 Why US economy is powering ahead of Europe's Biden isn't a rubbish President (although he is old), but from an economic standpoint there's a lot of good arguments to be made that the level of covid stimulus under Biden was excessive. It's helped improve GDP figures over the past couple of years but it's also one of the main factors contributing to inflation over there, and it's added a lot to the (already pretty enormous) US debt pile. So it's maybe not the unambiguous win it looks like. 39 minutes ago, magnkarl said: What the anti-Ukraine idiots in the GOP doesn't want to realise is that a lot of that growth is down to the Ukraine aid bills. Essentially every US dollar 'donated' went into US military industry and then they sent old kit to Ukraine. It baffles me that so many Republican senators are so against Ukraine aid when it's literally keeping their own states alive. It's really not a lot at all when compared to the covid stimulus. Ukraine aid has been about ~$75bn, not all of which was spent on military hardware and quite chunk of what was was out of service (i.e. had already been replaced, so wouldn't generate new arms sales). Whereas the covid stimulus was ~$2.3 trillion. Even if we're being generous and say ~$50bn of Ukraine aid ended up being spent on new hardware from the US arms industry, it's only like... ~2% of the covid amount. Drop in the ocean really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 13 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said: Biden isn't a rubbish President (although he is old), but from an economic standpoint there's a lot of good arguments to be made that the level of covid stimulus under Biden was excessive. It's helped improve GDP figures over the past couple of years but it's also one of the main factors contributing to inflation over there, and it's added a lot to the (already pretty enormous) US debt pile. So it's maybe not the unambiguous win it looks like. It's really not a lot at all when compared to the covid stimulus. Ukraine aid has been about ~$75bn, not all of which was spent on military hardware and quite chunk of what was was out of service (i.e. had already been replaced, so wouldn't generate new arms sales). Whereas the covid stimulus was ~$2.3 trillion. Even if we're being generous and say ~$50bn of Ukraine aid ended up being spent on new hardware from the US arms industry, it's only like... ~2% of the covid amount. Drop in the ocean really. Which is true, but the covid stimulus is done, Ukraine aid is now. If you divide the 2% into the states that actually make the hardware it does make up a fair few jobs in small rural counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 33 minutes ago, magnkarl said: Which is true, but the covid stimulus is done, Ukraine aid is now. If you divide the 2% into the states that actually make the hardware it does make up a fair few jobs in small rural counties. Sure, I fully agree with that. I was just pointing out that it's not true to say it makes up a lot of the US growth in the linked article; it's a relatively small factor overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 hours ago, sidcow said: Biden is old and a rubbish President though. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68203820 Why US economy is powering ahead of Europe's Quietly whispers, “The huge increase in illegal immigration is adding to the workforce at a time when other developed countries are aging out….” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedClaretAndBlue Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Good speech. “Are you with America or Trump” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 hours ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said: Good speech. “Are you with America or Trump” Excellent speech (minus a bit of slurring). Hopefully made it crystal clear that funding for Ukraine is actually funding for US companies and US citizens to close off the myth it vanishes out of the country. The bit about Trump also crystal clear. He’s a danger, and a threat to what they consider a free and safe America. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Suozzi (D) NY03 win last night. This is why I’m losing more faith in polls, even up to yesterday the average poll was +1 for Suozzi but he ended up winning by ~+8.5. This is Santos’ old seat and even the press were thinking it was too close. The red wave of ‘22 didn’t happen and the sentiment is still there and Suozzi pushed hard on Republicans not agreeing to the bi-partisan negotiated border deal and it was a winning argument. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Polling has been in an awkward place for a while because of the rise of social media, the respondents, and the weird nature of the Trump era. Besides my own tinfoil theory that more republicans answers polls (I personally don’t answer any number that doesn’t have a name attached to it), polling has a hard time capturing the anti-Trump vote. I’ve posted many times that I think Biden is a better president in terms of actual results that many give him credit for, but even I think he’s too old. But when it comes to the ballot box, I just find it incredibly hard to believe there’s some magical people who voted Trump > Biden > Trump again. What is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, nick76 said: I don't think they like to admit it, but the pollster response rate is too low to have a high degree of accuracy in the +/- margin. The demographics of the response rates are so skewed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr_Dogg Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 How much of an impact, if any, is RFK Jr going to have in the election? He's polling well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, Mr_Dogg said: How much of an impact, if any, is RFK Jr going to have in the election? He's polling well. The next Stein, Gabbard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 38 minutes ago, Mr_Dogg said: How much of an impact, if any, is RFK Jr going to have in the election? He's polling well. 32 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: The next Stein, Gabbard. This one - RFK Jr is going to be another scam artist, siphoning money away into his campaign fund. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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