Relegation

[Big_John_10]

I think the experience will help some of our players a lot.But for me I just can't see this defence somehow clicking next year.It needs improvement, either with new players or the manager organising better.

Yeah but that's fine. If the 'careful additions' need to be in defence then make them there. Overall, as I said, a few additions and the overall maturing of the squad and we shouldn't be struggling next season.

Sorry missed the careful additions part.

Yeah, I'd hope that the experience this year combined with a couple of smart signings and maybe one or two quality players from the youth team would see us looking a much better squad next season.

[VillaForever1970]

I can see two wins and two draws from the last 4 games.

I see us beating Sunderland tonight. The DiCanio "revival" was a win in a local derby against Newcastle, a completely woeful Newcastle and a win against an "on the beach" Everton. One side is woeful, the other have had nothing to play for for weeks. We have home advantage, I see us winning, it's the first time they'll come up against a team that actually cares

Norwich away - I see us winning this one too, they are on the slide and we won there 4-1 in the cup QF, we're looking a better side than then, they are looking worse. I think we have the measure of them now (at the start of the season they were the better side)

Chelsea at home, I've gone for a draw but I can realistically see us actually winning too. This is Chelsea's least important fixture in an 11 day period assuming they qualify for the EL final on May 15th. 6 days before its Man Utd away, 3 days before Its Spurs at Home, two tough games that will probably shape their approach to the game and tire them at the business end of the season, no matter what, if they go through against Basle (likely) they will also have one eye on a European final which despite its second string appeal will mean something to Benitez at least, its his only chance to not be a failure and being the type of manager he is, I'd expect him to rest players in our game too.

Wigan away. Draw. I suspect WIgan may need a point from this game and we'll already be safe, typical end of season draw.

I might be mad but that is how I see our run in

That'll do me!

Far more confident than most i think..

[VillaCas]

 

Well I find it hard to consider our worst start in premiership history signs of improvement - We had a bad start, understandable given the absolute mess that Lambert inherited but the facts are that we gradually improved from that up until Xmas

 

And when discussing where the club would be come the start of January I think you'll find myself and Morpheous were pretty much spot on when compared to what you thought - Before Xmas I started a thread asking where people thought we would finish. Given the decent run we were on I thought 11th, but that was based in part on Lambert being supported properly during the transfer window. 11th in fact was the most popular answer, the majority of posters at the time thought that we would finish 11th-13th. I've just re-read the thread and notice that neither you nor Morpheous had the courage of your convictions to name a finishing position. Although unlikely 11th-13th is still possible although I'm guessing that's not an outcome you are hoping for?

There's no doubt we've improved recently, hopefully that improvement will be enough to keep us up but at the moment that's not a given just yet.

No, I think you'll find its you who is being selective. You're the one picking certain period and certain aspects - which period is that then? all of last season and all of this season!!!!!

I'm looking at everything involved in last season and this. League position, points, goals scored, wins, goals conceded and losses. I'm not selecting one area to base my opinion on and I'm not selecting certain periods that suit my argument - I've looked at average points return for ALL of last season and ALL of this season....not selective in any way

Potential to be better is much higher with Lambert over Mcleish and at times the football is much better to watch - which is exactly what I've been saying??

 

[BOF]

This is a much quoted stat recently but the fact is we were 17th on 31 December and we are 17th now so whatever improvement there has been hasn't been enough to help us climb the table (unlike Southampton who have risen from 18th to 13th over the same period). We were on the same points as Wigan (now 2 ahead) 2 behind Newcastle (now 3), 3 behind Fulham (now 6), 3 behind Sunderland (now 3), and so it goes on...

 

The reality is we have just about managed to edge ahead of Wigan and as long as we keep our heads we will just about force them into the final relegation place.

 

That's the long and short of our performance this calendar year and any talk of "mid-table" performance levels is misplaced.

Well at least we know the roundabout in this thread is 40 pages big

You are right that the turnaround hasn't been enough to pull us clear of trouble, but then that's not even nearly the point that's being made here. Everyone knows that once you are down there, it is very difficult to pull free. You need almost champions league chasing form to pull yourself totally clear of all other relegation threatened sides. Even Southampton, who went on a mad run a month back, could find themselves uncomfortable if we win tonight and Wigan (will) win their game in hand at home to Playa del Swansea. I'm getting to the point being made ...

Firstly the actual facts. Our form has been midtable since the new year. That is unarguable because it is quantifiable and contained within the table in my linked post. And now to the point that is actually being made.

If we were to start next season with the trend of results that has happened since the new year then next year we wouldn't be IN this season's trouble in the first place. In other words that form would be fine as it wouldn't be happening from a position of 17th. We'd probably have a Fulham-esque type season of mediocrity. This season you are right that it hasn't been enough, because of the hole we dug ourselves into early on. But when talking about how a squad is progressing you have to look not only at the subjective stuff that I see i.e. the players maturing. There is at least a correlation to reality and the results they're picking up.

I know it's an inexact science. Wigan prove every year that the side that finishes the season is rarely the same Wigan that starts the next one. But then we go back to what we're trying to achieve here and how we're going about it. Wigan's problem is rarely experience and age. It's usually off-season pillaging. Which brings me back to my original point. If we can keep this group together and strengthen it in some of the weaker areas then we'll be more than fine IMHO.

[CI]

Well we will know a lot more at 10pm tonight.

We may know well before FT

[VillaCas]

 

Or form since that disastrous new year period has been pretty much mid table form. That's pretty encouraging for next season in my view.

This is a much quoted stat recently but the fact is we were 17th on 31 December and we are 17th now so whatever improvement there has been hasn't been enough to help us climb the table (unlike Southampton who have risen from 18th to 13th over the same period). We were on the same points as Wigan (now 2 ahead) 2 behind Newcastle (now 3), 3 behind Fulham (now 6), 3 behind Sunderland (now 3), and so it goes on...

 

The reality is we have just about managed to edge ahead of Wigan and as long as we keep our heads we will just about force them into the final relegation place.

 

That's the long and short of our performance this calendar year and any talk of "mid-table" performance levels is misplaced.

 

 

A league table for just 2013 would have us 10th. That's "mid-table" form in anyone's book

 

Across the whole season our form is represented by our overall 17th place position

 

Why are you so resistant to the idea that LAmbert and the team are gradually putting things right?

[romavillan]

Nice post BOF, pretty much sums up what i think about our current situation too. I think with more time to work with this group and with some smart signings (not a load of new faces needed imho) PL could have us top half next year.

 

To not take 2 steps backwards to get one forward though we need to stay in this division whilst a point tonight wouldn't be a disaster it would mean we have to beat norwich and not lose to wigan to stay up. 3 points tonight is a big step to safety as it puts less pressure on the norwich game. 4 points from the two matches may well be enough, 6 points and we're safe though and don't have to care about anyone elses results.

 

bookies have us as favourites so lets hope they are right tonight. If we do go down it'll mean relying on our own academy products to get us back up straight away, getting more experience along the way to then get the smart signings in to add to the group to kick on. it's put the projetc back a couple of years really.

[Big_John_10]

Before Xmas I started a thread asking where people thought we would finish. Given the decent run we were on I thought 11th, but that was based in part on Lambert being supported properly during the transfer window. 11th in fact was the most popular answer, the majority of posters at the time thought that we would finish 11th-13th. I've just re-read the thread and notice that neither you nor Morpheous had the courage of your convictions to name a finishing position. Although unlikely 11th-13th is still possible although I'm guessing that's not an outcome you are hoping for?

I don't think it's a lack of courage of my convictions. I stated way back last summer that I felt we'd be in a relegation battle. You're guessing that finishing 11th to 13th is not an outcome I'm hoping for? What are you basing such an absurd comment on?

which period is that then? all of last season and all of this season!!!!!

Comparing the whole of last season to this one shows no improvement. Like I said wins are balanced out by losses and goals scored are balanced out by goals conceded. League position and points are very similar.

I've looked at average points return for ALL of last season and ALL of this season....not selective in any way

Isn't it exactly the same right now? We averaged a point a game last season and average the exact same now. That could increase or decrease tonight though.

[Stevo985]

Done the BBC predictor. I was fairly pessimistic (not totally pessimistic)

Had us getting a point tonight and a win against Norwich. Nothing against Chelsea.

 

Anyway, this is how I had the table going into the final day

 

 

*gulp*

[abdulaziz1]

BJ ..

 

January also was awful for us .. Count from February towsrds now !

 

Or in other words .. last 10 games ..

[BOF]

Just did the BBC predictor and without manufacturing it that way, I have both us and Newcastle finishing joint 17th/18th on 38pts with -28 GD. Wigan were a point ahead of us.

[VillaCas]

 

Before Xmas I started a thread asking where people thought we would finish. Given the decent run we were on I thought 11th, but that was based in part on Lambert being supported properly during the transfer window. 11th in fact was the most popular answer, the majority of posters at the time thought that we would finish 11th-13th. I've just re-read the thread and notice that neither you nor Morpheous had the courage of your convictions to name a finishing position. Although unlikely 11th-13th is still possible although I'm guessing that's not an outcome you are hoping for?

I don't think it's a lack of courage of my convictions. I stated way back last summer that I felt we'd be in a relegation battle. You're guessing that finishing 11th to 13th is not an outcome I'm hoping for? What are you basing such an absurd comment on? - I'm basing it on the fact that you seem delighted that your prediction of relegation may come true and thus prove you right in some way

which period is that then? all of last season and all of this season!!!!!

Comparing the whole of last season to this one shows no improvement. Like I said wins are balanced out by losses and goals scored are balanced out by goals conceded. League position and points are very similar - The point is, as the overwhelming majority of posters here seem to appreciate, is that last season we were average for a while and then shit and this season were shit and have improved to being average - an upward trajectory instead of a downward one! Are you saying that you really can't see an improvement between the team that finished last season and the current team?

I've looked at average points return for ALL of last season and ALL of this season....not selective in any way

Isn't it exactly the same right now? We averaged a point a game last season and average the exact same now. That could increase or decrease tonight though - Not the point we were arguing is it. You claimed I had taken my data from a "selective period". I hadn't.

 

Anyway enough of this, I'm off to support Lambert's rapidly improving young Lions. Where do you drink before the game? I'll pop in a buy you one - I'll know which one's you as I'm sure your glass will be half empty!!

[bickster]

I do wish people would use the quote function correctly

[pacbuddies]

Going on our remarkable inability to win at home over the last few seasons and the immense pressure that the players are undoubtedly under at the moment I am predicting a generous draw against Sunderland and another generous draw away at Norwich and another generous draw at home to Chelsea leaving us on 37 points going into our last game away at Wigan by which time I will be in the South of France about to embark on my journey home and without access to a live stream and relying on internet access on my phone to find out what the f**k is happening!

[briny_ear]

 

This is a much quoted stat recently but the fact is we were 17th on 31 December and we are 17th now so whatever improvement there has been hasn't been enough to help us climb the table (unlike Southampton who have risen from 18th to 13th over the same period). We were on the same points as Wigan (now 2 ahead) 2 behind Newcastle (now 3), 3 behind Fulham (now 6), 3 behind Sunderland (now 3), and so it goes on...

 

The reality is we have just about managed to edge ahead of Wigan and as long as we keep our heads we will just about force them into the final relegation place.

 

That's the long and short of our performance this calendar year and any talk of "mid-table" performance levels is misplaced.

Well at least we know the roundabout in this thread is 40 pages big

You are right that the turnaround hasn't been enough to pull us clear of trouble, but then that's not even nearly the point that's being made here. Everyone knows that once you are down there, it is very difficult to pull free. You need almost champions league chasing form to pull yourself totally clear of all other relegation threatened sides. Even Southampton, who went on a mad run a month back, could find themselves uncomfortable if we win tonight and Wigan (will) win their game in hand at home to Playa del Swansea. I'm getting to the point being made ...

Firstly the actual facts. Our form has been midtable since the new year. That is unarguable because it is quantifiable and contained within the table in my linked post. And now to the point that is actually being made.

If we were to start next season with the trend of results that has happened since the new year then next year we wouldn't be IN this season's trouble in the first place. In other words that form would be fine as it wouldn't be happening from a position of 17th. We'd probably have a Fulham-esque type season of mediocrity. This season you are right that it hasn't been enough, because of the hole we dug ourselves into early on. But when talking about how a squad is progressing you have to look not only at the subjective stuff that I see i.e. the players maturing. There is at least a correlation to reality and the results they're picking up.

I know it's an inexact science. Wigan prove every year that the side that finishes the season is rarely the same Wigan that starts the next one. But then we go back to what we're trying to achieve here and how we're going about it. Wigan's problem is rarely experience and age. It's usually off-season pillaging. Which brings me back to my original point. If we can keep this group together and strengthen it in some of the weaker areas then we'll be more than fine IMHO.

 

Well, these are difficult times for all Villa fans and,if it helps people to describe our performance since January as "mid-table", it seems churlish to try to disabuse them. The only point is that, since we have made no progress whatsoever up the table during that time, the form of everyone around us must have been "mid-table" as well, so the term is virtually meaningless. 

 

We've probably scratched enough wins against weaker clubs to stay up and hopefully we can get 3 tonight which will make everything seem so much more comfortable.

 

As for next season, who knows? I'm pretty sure that if we keep basically the squad we have now, we will struggle again,so it's not worth speculating until we see what happens in the transfer market, both outs and ins.

 

(Oh, and thanks for not mentioning the "project" this time round.  )

[BOF]

(Oh, and thanks for not mentioning the "project" this time round.  )

Hardest thing I've ever done

[CI]

Lot of people fooling themselves in here. 10 of our meagre points haul has come courtesy of QPR and Reading.

[Morpheus]

 

 

PS this chart is a big hit with some of our friends here especially Morpheus and BJ10 - hard to argue with the facts though isn't it.

I noticed this chart that you loved posting and used to argue your improvement by picking a select time seemed to disappear after the Chelsea game.

I don't think anyone has disagreed that we've improved recently.

However in terms of a whole season we still average the exact amount of points a game and are sitting in around the same league position.

The improvements in wins and goals scored are balanced out by losing more and conceding more.

 

 

 

 

 

You say that we are no better than last season but that is you being selective - last season we started averagely and ended awfully and this season has been exactly the opposite. Sunderland, Newcastle, Wigan and Norwich are our rivals at the moment and our form this year is better than all of them.

 

 

 

Not being selective at all. Your focusing on parts of the season rather than the whole. At the moment we haven't been better than last season and the current table proves that. But keep trying VillaCas.

[VillaForever1970]

If you believe a few Villa fans we were going to finish bottom, never score again and QPR would easily stay up with their players.

So I think it's pretty easy to discount anything we say.

[briny_ear]

I do wish people would use the quote function correctly

??????

 

More details pl.