Relegation

[KennyPowers]

 

 

A potential downside is that they guy who scouted Benteke is no longer with us.

 

Do we actually know that? 

 

 

He's a good signing and all but come on the guy scored for Belgium against Netherlands two weeks before we signed him, he was hardly a nobody we unearthed. 

 

We should probably be taking more chances on foreign players though, like Newcastle have, instead of spending money on English players. Saddens me to say that but that's the reality of the premier league right now. 

 

I would say Africa is still somewhat untapped, Japan/Korea has a lot of potential. Not sure I would bother with South America, too many 'cultural' issues with their players. 

[KSV]

Which result would you accept now.

 

Going to wigan needing to win...draw or having 1 point ahead of Wigan before the final match?

 

Me personally.. id rather we needed the win to stay up. If we were there 1-2 points infront.. i dont trust this side holding out for a draw/win. Id rather we were the desperate ones putting them under pressure at home.

 

Whichever it is.. its certainly looking like going to the last day. Well Done Sky.

[KennyPowers]

There are many attributes that relate to an improving football team.

While its clear to see some of the improvements, there is equally a disappointing few that have not improved at all.

 

I think this is the biggest issue. I realise it's partly because of financial constraints but also out of choice we have been patient with promising youth players like Clark and Bannan , waiting for them to come through, hoping they will form the basis of our immediate future and it just doesn't look like working out. 

[ciggiesnbeer]

I would rather we were safe before the game. After we thrash Sunderland & Norwich we will be fine.

Edited April 25, 2013 by ciggiesnbeer

[leviramsey]

QPR: 0% stay up, 0% 18th, 27% 19th, 73% 20th

Reading: 0% stay up, 1% 18th, 72% 19th, 27% 20th

Aston Villa: 69% stay up, 31% 18th

Wigan: 31% stay up, 68% 18th, 1% 19th

Moving away from the quick and dirty Monte Carlo, since it's a two-horse race:

Probabilities for remaining Villa games before Wigan:

Sunderland @ Villa: Sunderland win: 43%, Draw: 35%, Villa win: 22%

Villa @ Norwich: Villa win: 15%, Draw: 27%, Norwich win: 58%

Chelsea @ Villa: Chelsea win: 82%, Draw: 13%, Villa win: 5%

0 pts: 20%

1 pt: 30%

2 pts: 12%

3 pts: 18%

4 pts: 13%

5 pts: 2%

6 pts: 4%

7 pts: 1%

9 pts: 0%

Probabilities for remaining Wigan games before Villa:

Spurs @ Wigan: Spurs win: 70%, Draw: 20%, Wigan win: 10%

Wigan @ WBA: Wigan win: 11%, Draw: 26%, WBA win: 63%

Swansea @ Wigan: Swansea win: 60%, Draw: 28%, Wigan win: 13%

Wigan @ Arsenal: Wigan win: 1%, Draw: 7%, Arsenal win: 92%

0 pts: 24%

1 pt: 30%

2 pts: 13%

3 pts: 15%

4 pts: 11%

5 pts: 3%

6 pts: 3%

7 pts: 1%

8-12 pts: 0%

So heading into Wigan game, here are the chances (as I see them) of the various situations:

Villa ahead by 4+ points: 43%

Villa ahead by 3 points: 20%

Villa ahead by 2 points: 14%

Villa ahead by 1 point: 9%

Level: 7%

Wigan ahead by 1 point: 4%

Wigan ahead by 2 points: 2%

Wigan ahead by 3 points: 1%

Wigan ahead by 4+ points: 0%

Assuming that Villa can't close the goal-difference gap, then

Villa safe: 43%

Villa need a win/draw: 43%

Villa need a win: 13%

Villa down: 1%

Villa @ Wigan: Villa win: 29%, Draw: 22%, Wigan win: 49%

69% chance of staying up

Note that I don't think it's likely that we win another game this season...

[VillaCas]

 

Probabilities for remaining Villa games before Wigan:

Sunderland @ Villa: Sunderland win: 43%, Draw: 35%, Villa win: 22%

Villa @ Norwich: Villa win: 15%, Draw: 27%, Norwich win: 58%

Chelsea @ Villa: Chelsea win: 82%, Draw: 13%, Villa win: 5%

 

 

I like a good stat as much as the next man, however I feel that the Monte Carlo simulation is something of a blunt instrument. Am I right that you are using data from across the whole season to apply to these last four games? Can you run your simulation again but just using current form, say the last six-eight matches - this would be much more representative of what is likely to happen. Whilst I can agree with the Chelsea analysis, surely our chances of a win against Sunderland and Norwich must be better

 

Personally, I expect us to get at least a win (Sunderland), two draws (Wigan & Norwich) and a defeat (Chelsea) from the last four games for 5 points. Which I hope will  just about see us safe.

[CI]

WBA play Wigan and Norwich in the run in. Can anyone else see WBA throwing both games

[Papillon]

Sunderland have 43% chance of winning at Villa Park and we have 22%? Don't know what this is based on but it is very wrong. Just look at the current odds, we are twice the money back and they are tripple.

[ciggiesnbeer]

Nah. We will not lose another game this season. Hows dat for yer numbers abacus head?

 

[jacketspuds]

Did we not stumble across Benteke when Lambert went to watch Vossen?

In terms of relegation i've accepted it so if we stay up great we will deserve it. If not, oh well, ewe will also deserve it.

Hopefully we can get 1 more point from our next 3 games than Wigan manage in their next 4, but if we go down then fair enough. There are more people to blame than just Paul Lambert.

[8pints]

jacketspuds, on 25 Apr 2013 - 09:26 AM, said:

Did we not stumble across Benteke when Lambert went to watch Vossen?

In terms of relegation i've accepted it so if we stay up great we will deserve it. If not, oh well, ewe will also deserve it.

Hopefully we can get 1 more point from our next 3 games than Wigan manage in their next 4, but if we go down then fair enough. There are more people to blame than just Paul Lambert.

 

 

What did I do?

Edited April 25, 2013 by 8pints

[NormandyVillan]

I think Saturday’s Wigan v Spurs game is massively important for two reasons:

 

 

1) If you look at the League table WITHOUT VILLA, Wigan are very probably going to finish third from bottom of that table (7 points ahead of the bottom two, but 6 points behind the teams above them with a far inferior goal difference, thus needing to make up 7 points on the likes of Stoke and Sunderland). I’d say there’s about an 80 to 90 % chance that Wigan will end up third from bottom of this 19-team League. This means that finishing above Wigan is very probably what we need to do to stay up. Thus, in terms of Villa beating relegation, Wigan’s results are almost as important as our own.

 

2) The result of the Wigan match may have some effect on the way Sunderland perform at Villa Park. If Wigan lose, then Sunderland will be in a fairly comfortable position (6 point lead over Wigan plus vastly superior goal difference, with 4 games to play) and the game at Villa becomes a little bit less important for them.

 

It goes like this (discounting draws for simplicity):

 

If Wigan beat Spurs, then for Sunderland:

Win at Villa = practically safe, Lose at Villa = back under threat.

 

If Wigan lose to Spurs, then for Sunderland:

Win at Villa = almost certainly safe, Lose at Villa = still relatively safe.

 

Of course, Sunderland will want to win whatever the Wigan result. It’s their chance to practically guarantee that they stay up, so they’ll have that “carrot” in any case. But if Wigan lose to Spurs, then there won’t be so much of a “stick” in terms of relegation threat if they lose to Villa.

 

I’m not saying that Wigan losing will automatically mean that Villa will beat Sunderland. Far from it. But I do think Sunderland being in a “comfort zone” could improve our chances a bit in that game. It could be case of “one good thing leads to another”.

 

So for Saturday... COYS!!!!

[Zatman]

WBA play Wigan and Norwich in the run in. Can anyone else see WBA throwing both games

 

you said they would throw the game vs Newcastle and they didnt

 

you also said Warnock tried scoring deliberate own goals which he wasnt either

[CI]

They were awful v Newcastle .

I said the Warnock OG's were odd and I wasnt alone.

Let's see how WBA play those games. I don't expect much help from WBA .

[Zatman]

West Brom battered them in 2nd half and should have won. 

[roonst83]

WBA play Wigan and Norwich in the run in. Can anyone else see WBA throwing both games

 

This is my fear.

[PieFacE]

WBA wont throw any games. They will want to finish as high as possible, the higher they finish the more money they get. I don't think they are that bothered about Villa to be honest. 

 

I mean, what do you expect Clarkes team talk willl be?

 

"Go out there and play shit so we increase the chance of Villa getting relegated?"

 

That's just stupid.

Edited April 25, 2013 by PieFacE

[NormandyVillan]

 

WBA play Wigan and Norwich in the run in. Can anyone else see WBA throwing both games

 

This is my fear.

 

I don't think there's any chance they will actually "throw" any games.

 

I do think the West Brom fans' support for their team may be a bit "tepid" if they think a Wigan win could help to send us down, so I suppose there's a danger that could rub off on the team's performance.

[villa-revolution]

 

 

WBA play Wigan and Norwich in the run in. Can anyone else see WBA throwing both games

 

This is my fear.

 

I don't think there's any chance they will actually "throw" any games.

 

I do think the West Brom fans' support for their team may be a bit "tepid" if they think a Wigan win could help to send us down, so I suppose there's a danger that could rub off on the team's performance.

 

 

 

I also worry that West Brom won't exactly be on a leash in these games but that is just a fear that most fans share I would imagine. Logically, I believe the Albion fans would take great delight in helping our demise but fortunately I believe the  West Brom  Management & players will not share this view & will adopt a professional approach to these games.

 

Bottom line though is that if we take care of business ourselves we simply won't have to worry about Wigan, West brom, or anybody else for that matter.

[Pongotastic]

Be honest, has anyone had a small/large flutter on us going down just to soften the blow if our worst fears are realised?