If there was a general election tomorrow...

[LondonLax]

I might be being daft but this non-dom thing, it seems a bit mad to me, they do pay taxes on earnings in this country don't they? Its just they don't pay UK tax on earnings in other countries? Isn't that the correct state of affairs, you get taxed in the country where the money is earned? Seems like thats the way it should be, or am I missing something?

Yes, if you are living here but not domiciled you don't have to pay tax on your earnings abroad so the UK acts as a bit of a tax haven. I think there was a new rule brought in though that non-doms had to pay the government £30,000 if they had been living here a long time and still wanted to be considered non-domicile.

[Awol]

Pound suffers sharpest fall in more than a year as prospect of hung parliament looms

The pound fell the most in more than a year as foreign-exchange markets reacted with shock to the prospect that a hung parliament will fail to tackle Britain's deficit.

In a dramatic morning's trading, sterling fell 4 1/2 cents against the dollar to trade below $1.48 for the first time since May. By lunchtime it had recovered some of its poise but was still down 3 1/2 cents at just over $1.49 and on course for its worst day since at least February 2009.

The steep declines followed an opinion poll published in the Sunday Times showing that the Conservatives' lead has narrowed to just two percentage points over the Labour Party. Experts reckon if that voting pattern were replicated on polling day - widely expected to be May 6 - Labour would win enough seats to lead a hung parliament in which neither of the main parties has a majority.

If Labour (and Brown) get back in then UK Plc is dead.

[tonyh29]

it's strange that one poll can send sterling tumbling ..

especially from such a flawed source ... yougov do their sampling online , just about the most flawed form of surveying going .. had it been F2F with a Nat rep I would imagine you'd see a different result .. as happened the other week where one poll showed labour closing the gap and another showed it widening

saying that maybe it's part of my conspiracy theory and the markets are trying to say to everybody ..this is what will happen if you reelect brown

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

Speaking of falls, the tory lead has fairly crashed hasn't it!

Strange tbh, they've not done much wrong. apart from being tories of course.

[bickster]

Speaking of falls, the tory lead has fairly crashed hasn't it!

Strange tbh, they've not done much wrong. apart from being tories of course.

Both parties are tories

[drat01]

If Labour (and Brown) get back in then UK Plc is dead.

Absolute and utter rubbish

[tonyh29]

If Labour (and Brown) get back in then UK Plc is dead.

Absolute and utter rubbish

couldn't agree more ....

It's already dead :-)

[drat01]

Bloody cockney :-)

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

From the Yougov website, by Peter Kellner

Could Labour win after all?

Posted on: 01 March 2010

YouGov’s latest poll for the Sunday Times has caused a stir. It shows the Conservatives just 2 points ahead of Labour; given the bias in Britain’s political geography this would leave Labour with more seats than the Tories – even if the Tories do secure a bigger swing in Labour marginals than the rest of Britain. (My own guesstimate is that there would be around 300 Labour MPs, 270 Conservatives and 50 Liberal Democrats; if we assume a uniform swing, the figures are: 317-263-41.)

Since the Sunday Times published our results, a number of people have asked, quite reasonably, are our figures right? Could ours be a rogue poll?

Well, we haven’t repealed the laws of probability. All surveys, however they are conducted, are subject to a margin of error. Normally, figures are presented at the 95% confidence level. So, if the sampling error is given as “plus or minus 3%”, this means that the figures for each party should be within 3 points of the published figure 19 times out of 20. But one time in 20, the truth will lie outside that range.

However, conventional sampling calculations don’t apply to YouGov. Our panel-based methods allow us to sample our respondents, and weight the raw data, with greater sophistication than other companies. In particular we go to great lengths to ensure that our weighted data accurately reflect the political loyalties of British electors. That doesn’t mean we are subject to no sampling error, simply that it can’t be calculated the normal way. Taking account of YouGov’s record, I believe that two times out of three (the “one sigma” level) our results will be accurate to within one point, and nineteen times out of twenty (the “two sigma” level), accurate to within two points.

That is certainly consistent with our record of accurate eve-of-election prediction polls, such as the final poll in the 2005 general election, London’s mayoral election and last year’s Euro-election.

What we can be sure of, then, is that the Conservative lead has narrowed since late January. What we can’t be sure is whether it is precisely two points – or, even if it is, whether it will remain that low. One of the reasons for conducting daily polls is to monitor the fluctuations in party support. Over the next few days, our polls for the Sun will tell us whether our Sunday times poll reflects a blip or a trend – just as it takes us a few days before we can judge whether a one-day 100-point movement in the FTSE 100 share index is a short-term wonder or part of a longer-term change in market sentiment.

What we can say is that the recent dip in Tory fortunes is connected with the economy. YouGov has not had a double-digit Tory lead – the margin they need to be sure of a working overall majority – since the second week of January. It looks as if the economy is the main reason. As Britain emerges slowly from recession, doubts are mounting that David Cameron and George Osborne are the best people to steer Britain back to prosperity. For the first time since Gordon Brown’s honeymoon period as Prime Minister, Labour has edged ahead of the Tories as having the better team to run the economy. The Tories’ most urgent task is to reverse this slide in perceptions of their economic competence.

[Rodders]

poll means jackall. It changes all the time. Plenty of votes to be won during the campaign anyway

[markavfc40]

You'd have to say if the Tories don't win the next election you'd have doubs about them ever getting elected again. Due to the world wide recession they have been given a massive window of opportunity to take advantage of but due to incompetent leadership ( in the form of Cameron and the baffoon Osbourne ) and lack of policies it appears they may well **** it up.

[Awol]

If Labour (and Brown) get back in then UK Plc is dead.

Absolute and utter rubbish

Is it ****! The markets are putting us on notice, any more of the mentally deranged bully boy and the flight of capital from the UK /collapse of credit to the UK will be catastrophic.

You can fool some of the people, some of the time.... The markets don't deal in spin Ian.

[bickster]

If Labour (and Brown) get back in then UK Plc is dead.

Absolute and utter rubbish

Is it ****! The markets are putting us on notice, any more of the mentally deranged bully boy and the flight of capital from the UK /collapse of credit to the UK will be catastrophic.

You can fool some of the people, some of the time.... The markets don't deal in spin Ian.

But the markets are reacting to a possible hung parliament not a Labour win, your point is therefore completely invalid. As you know I'm no Labour supporter but I do like there to be at least some intelligence in a debate. Interpreting this as anti-Labour is just making things up to suit your argument afaic. Markets like strong government, stable government on the whole, they do not like hung parliaments as they are weak.

[drat01]

Exactly Gareth - Jon your obsession for anyone but Labour is now clouding any sort of sane argument that you have

The people are questioning Cameron and Gideon to see if they are suitable Gvmt material and the impression is (rightly IMO) that they are not and a hung parliament is looking likely if you believe the polls.

[Awol]

Some intelligence? How about patronising someone else, fella? A hung parliament will most probably equal a lab/lib coalition and no effective action to cut the deficit. That is why the markets have shit themselves. A hung parliament equals a Brown government. Do try to keep up.

Edit: Looks like we'll suck it and see Ian.

[bickster]

Some intelligence? How about patronising someone else, fella? A hung parliament will most probably equal a lab/lib coalition and no effective action to cut the deficit. That is why the markets have shit themselves. A hung parliament equals a Brown government. Do try to keep up.

No, its a coalition government, one that can break apart at any time due to the vested interests of each side, it matters not who the parties in coalition are, coalition government by its very nature is weak, they are reacting to the news of a possible coalition government regardless of the shades of colour that make up the alliance. If it were a Tory / Lib coalition they would react the same if not more extremely due to the increased capacity for incompatibility in ideology.

You see a point is unintelligent in my view when it uses one piece of evidence to back up its claim, when the piece of evidence used doesn't actually do that but what the heck, lets just use it anyway. Politicians do it all the time, they are largely unintelligent when they do

[Awol]

Even if Labour don't win the popular vote, on the Sunday Times poll numbers they would still be the biggest party due to the gerrymandering of electoral boundaries by Labour over the past 10 years. You may or may not be aware that in this situation the incumbent PM is invited to form a Government, hence a tory/lib pact is not a viable outcome - again, based on the poll, which is after all what we're discussing.

So again, please, save the cheap jibes for someone who is fooled that you know what you're on about.

Edit: Too many Mays.

[tonyh29]

No, its a coalition government,

and a step closer to Ashdowns "it's inevitable" merger of the labour party and the Libs dems ..million € question is what deal will it take to bring the libs to the table ..Gordon promising to stand down for Clegg ?

anyway it's all pure pish , wait til the electioneering starts and the Murdoch wagon kicks in.. there are whispers abound that the Brown Bully story was a red herring and the real events are far far worse

[bickster]

Even if Labour don't win the popular vote, on the Sunday Times poll numbers they would still be the biggest party due to the gerrymandering of electoral boundaries by Labour over the past 10 years. You may or may or may not be aware that in this situation the incumbent PM is invited to form a Government, hence a tory/lib pact is not a viable outcome - again, based on the poll, which is after all what we're discussing.

So again, please, save the cheap jibes for someone who is fooled that you know what you're on about.

What cheap jibes? You're point is and remains unintelligent. The markets are reacting to the possibility of a hung parliament, not the make up of said parliament. You see if Labour and Liberal can't form a Govt, then the Queen has no option but to offer the Conservatives as second largest party the opportunity to form a government. I don't see it as likely I do see it as possible though. But here is the crux of the point, the markets wouldn't have reacted like that if the poll said Labour were going to win outright (or Tories for that matter) IT IS THE HUNG NATURE OF THE PARLIAMENT THEY ARE REACTING TOO not the colour of the parties involved

Also, you specifically state a "Brown" govt, it could quite easily be someone else in a very short space of time as Brown may then be considered a failure for Labour and he would get swiftly replaced as Labour tries to build to win the next election without the help of the Libs

And the gerrymandering line is hilarious, its not like the Tories never did that now is it? But then again the electoral commission is meant to be independent, but hey ho, bent politicians complaining about bent political practices that they've carried out themselves is just a bit too silly, its probably why Cameron hasn't said a word on the issue

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

Yeah that's what I like to hear, hang the parliament!