Race for Champions League - 2023/2024

[Stevo985]

It’s quite funny that Man Utd got absolutely **** battered by Brentford and fluked a point… then shortly after we absolutely battered Brentford and threw away a victory to get a point. 
 

Yet we’re the ones who are going to collapse to at least 5 defeats in our next 6 and Man Utd are the ones who are going to go on a run of 6 victories to pip us to 5th

 

Mad how people twist things in their heads 

[omariqy]

8 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

But nobody is talking about the prospect of losing one game against Arsenal. In talking about the people convinced we’re going to slip down to 6th by losing all of our games. 
 

It isn’t going to happen. We’re going to pick up wins and despite what you say, Man Utd are not capable of winning all of their games. There is literally no metrics from this season that suggests they are capable of anywhere near that sort of form. It’s fantasy. 

Not even the top 3 are capable of winning every game at the moment. 

[omariqy]

Just to add a 5th Scenario i.e. if City and Arsenal go out.

Scenario 5 - Madrid, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through

Assume whoever goes through gets a draw away from home and a win at home

Current points totals are as follows

Germany - 16.357

England - 16.250

Scenario 5

Man City - 0.125

Arsenal - 0.125

Bayern - 0.571

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham - 0.125

Dortumund - 0.143

Villa - 0.375

Germany - 17.642

England - 17.500

Scenario 5a - Madrid beat Bayern, Liverpool and Leverkusen get to the final, Villa go to the final

Bayern - 0.143

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.500

Villa - 0.500

Germany - 18.285

England - 18.500

So not all hope is lost if both City and Arsenal lose. It just depends the manner of the defeats and if we can get 2 of Liverpool/West Ham/Villa into the final. 

[Delphinho123]

We need another 5 points in my book. It then becomes virtually impossible for anybody to catch us. United as an example would need 17 points from 7 games. 5 wins and 2 draws or 6 wins. No chance.

2 wins Villa, 2 wins. Not even that. 
We should go all out to beat Bournemouth and we’re almost there!

[Delphinho123]

4 minutes ago, omariqy said:

Just to add a 5th Scenario i.e. if City and Arsenal go out.

Scenario 5 - Madrid, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through

Assume whoever goes through gets a draw away from home and a win at home

Current points totals are as follows

Germany - 16.357

England - 16.250

Scenario 5

Man City - 0.125

Arsenal - 0.125

Bayern - 0.571

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham - 0.125

Dortumund - 0.143

Villa - 0.375

Germany - 17.642

England - 17.500

Scenario 5a - Madrid beat Bayern, Liverpool and Leverkusen get to the final, Villa go to the final

Bayern - 0.143

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.500

Villa - 0.500

Germany - 18.285

England - 18.500

So not all hope is lost if both City and Arsenal lose. It just depends the manner of the defeats and if we can get 2 of Liverpool/West Ham/Villa into the final. 

The way I see it is, it’s pretty much done if Arsenal go through.

[zak]

19 minutes ago, duke313 said:

 

So I think if you take the odds of England getting extra spot (currently c.70%) Villa have a 77.5% chance of getting champs league next year

[DJBOB]

10 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

We need another 5 points in my book. It then becomes virtually impossible for anybody to catch us. United as an example would need 17 points from 7 games. 5 wins and 2 draws or 6 wins. No chance.

2 wins Villa, 2 wins. Not even that. 
We should go all out to beat Bournemouth and we’re almost there!

I'm kind of in this boat now. And it might not be the purist way of competing every match but if we beat Bournemouth and Palace, then the best way we can help ourselves with 5th place is to go all in for conference league to keep picking up coefficient points because it's going to end up being very close.

[Tomaszk]

3 hours ago, PaulMcGrath_5 said:

4th or 5th is totally irrelevant if the coefficient points work out, couldn't care less either way.

You don't care about 4th or 5th? Strange one. How can you not prefer 4th?

If we're 4th we'll be done with a few games left and be able to rest players for the European final we could be in.

Wonder if there's a scenario where we need to win that final to give us our first title in years, and also get us into the Champions League through the PL.

[omariqy]

5 minutes ago, Tomaszk said:

You don't care about 4th or 5th? Strange one. How can you not prefer 4th?

If we're 4th we'll be done with a few games left and be able to rest players for the European final we could be in.

Wonder if there's a scenario where we need to win that final to give us our first title in years, and also get us into the Champions League through the PL.

There is. I've just posted it. 

[PaulMcGrath_5]

5 minutes ago, Tomaszk said:

You don't care about 4th or 5th? Strange one. How can you not prefer 4th?

If we're 4th we'll be done with a few games left and be able to rest players for the European final we could be in.

Wonder if there's a scenario where we need to win that final to give us our first title in years, and also get us into the Champions League through the PL.

If both positions earn Champions League, I don't care. I am hoping for that to be effectively confirmed by the end of next week. If we are 5th at that point, we can do the same in terms of resting because Man United won't catch us.

[rodders129]

25 minutes ago, DJBOB said:

I'm kind of in this boat now. And it might not be the purist way of competing every match but if we beat Bournemouth and Palace, then the best way we can help ourselves with 5th place is to go all in for conference league to keep picking up coefficient points because it's going to end up being very close.

With the added incentive of trying to win the UECL trophy! If we win the UECL trophy this year it’ll be massive. Massive. You saw the scenes at VP last year to just qualify for the competition. That’s how much it means

[rodders129]

I’ve really come round to just wanting the lads to win something. I’m not that bothered about just qualifying for UCL tbh. I keep looking at Newcastle season or even Spurs over the last ten years. I don’t follow Villa for the business/commercial side. I’m a romantic. I just want to experience a little piece of glory. I was eight years old watching the 96 Coca-Cola cup final on TV and it was the best day of my life. The childhood fan in me wants to feel that again and my kids now to feel that. 

[PaulMcGrath_5]

1 minute ago, rodders129 said:

I’ve really come round to just wanting the lads to win something. I’m not that bothered about just qualifying for UCL tbh. I keep looking at Newcastle season or even Spurs over the last ten years. I don’t follow Villa for the business/commercial side. I’m a romantic. I just want to experience a little piece of glory. I was eight years old watching the 96 Coca-Cola cup final on TV and it was the best day of my life. The childhood fan in me wants to feel that again and my kids now to feel that. 

Oh, that's a different story all together--if I was offered the choice between finishing 6th and winning Conference League or finishing 4th and exiting to Lille, I would go for the former. 

[rodders129]

If we miss out on 4th and we miss out on 5th being UCL then so be it. I’m not going to throw my toys out the pram. Regroup and win the Europa League next year. And if a few of our players don’t want to stay next season, so be it. We’ll get good fees for them and I back Unai to replace. Once you start viewing this through a broader lens I guarantee you’ll enjoy it more. I’m done with the granular PPG projections and hand wringing on every game and point…it’s neurotic and unenjoyable. Get your heads up, chest out, support the lads through the ups and downs and live in hope for a piece of glory. If anyone’s delivering it it’s Unai

[chrisvilla4]

I think we will beat Arsenal and put the cat amongst the pigeons. Or lion amongst the cocks. 

Edited April 8 by chrisvilla4

[Tomaszk]

19 minutes ago, PaulMcGrath_5 said:

If both positions earn Champions League, I don't care.

OK.

19 minutes ago, PaulMcGrath_5 said:

I am hoping for that to be effectively confirmed by the end of next week. If we are 5th at that point, we can do the same in terms of resting because Man United won't catch us.

Too many matches still to play IMO. Across Europe as well as PL. Every match counts towards coefficient even if the tie is over. 6-0 Arsenal in leg 1 v Bayern probably isn't a great result for us.

Because I'm insane as well... Newcastle have a very easy run in, we won't be resting anyone while they can mathematically catch us in 5th.

On 05/04/2024 at 23:29, omariqy said:

So I have looked at a few different scenarios 

Scenario 1 - Man City, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through

Scenario 2 - Madrid, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through

Scenario 3 - Madrid, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Lille go through

Scenario 4 - Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through

Assume whoever goes through gets a draw away from home and a win at home

Current points totals are as follows

Germany - 16.357

England - 16.250

I’ve ignored the points totals of the non German/English teams below

Scenario 1 

Man City - 0.500 points in total

Bayern - 0.571 points

Arsenal - 0.125

Liverpool - 0.500 

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham 0.125

Dortmund - 0.143

Villa - 0.375

Germany - 17.660

England - 17.875

England have 3 teams and Germany have 2 teams through. Man City v Bayern in the semi is the deciding game you would think in that scenario. 

 

Scenario 2

Bayern - 0.571

Man City - 0.125

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham - 0.125

Dortmund - 0.143

Villa - 0.375

Germany - 17.642

England - 17.375

In this scenario you are relying on Madrid to beat Bayern and Villa and Liverpool to get to/win their finals

 

Scenario 3

Man City - 0.125

Arsenal - 0.500

Bayern - 0.143

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham - 0.125

Dortmund - 0.143

Villa - 0.125

Germany - 17.214

England - 17.5

In this scenario, you only have Leverkusen left who can get a maximum of 1.142 points for Germany if they win the whole thing. You’d be relying on Liverpool or Arsenal to get to the final/win it

 

Scenario 4 - probably the most likely scenario 

Man City - 0.500

Arsenal - 0.500

Bayern - 0.143

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham - 0.125

Dortmund - 0.143

Villa - 0.375

Germany - 17.214

England - 18.25

In this scenario, only Leverkusen left with a maximum of 1.142 points available - i.e. max Germany can get is 18.356. England would just need to draw one game to get 2nd place in this scenario. I am discounting France and Spain as they are so far behind. 

+

Just to add a 5th Scenario i.e. if City and Arsenal go out.

Scenario 5 - Madrid, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through

Assume whoever goes through gets a draw away from home and a win at home

Current points totals are as follows

Germany - 16.357

England - 16.250

Scenario 5

Man City - 0.125

Arsenal - 0.125

Bayern - 0.571

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham - 0.125

Dortumund - 0.143

Villa - 0.375

Germany - 17.642

England - 17.500

Scenario 5a - Madrid beat Bayern, Liverpool and Leverkusen get to the final, Villa go to the final

Bayern - 0.143

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.500

Villa - 0.500

Germany - 18.285

England - 18.500

So not all hope is lost if both City and Arsenal lose. It just depends the manner of the defeats and if we can get 2 of Liverpool/West Ham/Villa into the final. 

We need to pin this to the top of the thread somehow.

[omariqy]

Posted again so it is all in one place.

 

So I have looked at a few different scenarios 

Scenario 1 - Man City, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through

Scenario 2 - Madrid, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through

Scenario 3 - Madrid, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Lille go through

Scenario 4 - Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through

Assume whoever goes through gets a draw away from home and a win at home

Current points totals are as follows

Germany - 16.357

England - 16.250

I’ve ignored the points totals of the non German/English teams below

Scenario 1 

Man City - 0.500 points in total

Bayern - 0.571 points

Arsenal - 0.125

Liverpool - 0.500 

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham 0.125

Dortmund - 0.143

Villa - 0.375

Germany - 17.660

England - 17.875

England have 3 teams and Germany have 2 teams through. Man City v Bayern in the semi is the deciding game you would think in that scenario. 

 

Scenario 2

Bayern - 0.571

Man City - 0.125

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham - 0.125

Dortmund - 0.143

Villa - 0.375

Germany - 17.642

England - 17.375

In this scenario you are relying on Madrid to beat Bayern and Villa and Liverpool to get to/win their finals

 

Scenario 3

Man City - 0.125

Arsenal - 0.500

Bayern - 0.143

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham - 0.125

Dortmund - 0.143

Villa - 0.125

Germany - 17.214

England - 17.5

In this scenario, you only have Leverkusen left who can get a maximum of 1.142 points for Germany if they win the whole thing. You’d be relying on Liverpool or Arsenal to get to the final/win it

 

Scenario 4 - probably the most likely scenario 

Man City - 0.500

Arsenal - 0.500

Bayern - 0.143

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham - 0.125

Dortmund - 0.143

Villa - 0.375

Germany - 17.214

England - 18.25

In this scenario, only Leverkusen left with a maximum of 1.142 points available - i.e. max Germany can get is 18.356. England would just need to draw one game to get 2nd place in this scenario. I am discounting France and Spain as they are so far behind. 

+

Just to add a 5th Scenario i.e. if City and Arsenal go out.

Scenario 5 - Madrid, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through

Assume whoever goes through gets a draw away from home and a win at home

Current points totals are as follows

Germany - 16.357

England - 16.250

Scenario 5

Man City - 0.125

Arsenal - 0.125

Bayern - 0.571

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham - 0.125

Dortumund - 0.143

Villa - 0.375

Germany - 17.642

England - 17.500

Scenario 5a - Madrid beat Bayern, Liverpool and Leverkusen get to the final, Villa go to the final

Bayern - 0.143

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.500

Villa - 0.500

Germany - 18.285

England - 18.500

So not all hope is lost if both City and Arsenal lose. It just depends the manner of the defeats and if we can get 2 of Liverpool/West Ham/Villa into the final. 

Edited April 8 by omariqy

[Mantis]

I think people should be less worried about Man United catching us and a little more worried about 5th place not getting the Champions League spot.

[ender4]

2 hours ago, M_Afro said:

I’ve just re-done my predictions and I have Spurs finishing above us on goal difference! 

2 hours ago, Pinebro said:

Spurs will beat Burnley, SU and Chelsea IMO. Think they'll get a draw against Newcatle. Puts them at 70 points

2 hours ago, duke313 said:

We will beat Bournemouth, Brighton and Palace, and draw with Chelsea.  Puts us on 70.  Looks like it's going down to goal difference.

Yep, literally what i'm getting as well with a new prediction. Both teams get 10 more points and we both finish on 70. I'm getting same goal difference as well hahaha.

[jayEm]

21 minutes ago, omariqy said:

Posted again so it is all in one place.

 

So I have looked at a few different scenarios 

Scenario 1 - Man City, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through

Scenario 2 - Madrid, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through

Scenario 3 - Madrid, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Lille go through

Scenario 4 - Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through

Assume whoever goes through gets a draw away from home and a win at home

Current points totals are as follows

Germany - 16.357

England - 16.250

I’ve ignored the points totals of the non German/English teams below

Scenario 1 

Man City - 0.500 points in total

Bayern - 0.571 points

Arsenal - 0.125

Liverpool - 0.500 

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham 0.125

Dortmund - 0.143

Villa - 0.375

Germany - 17.660

England - 17.875

England have 3 teams and Germany have 2 teams through. Man City v Bayern in the semi is the deciding game you would think in that scenario. 

 

Scenario 2

Bayern - 0.571

Man City - 0.125

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham - 0.125

Dortmund - 0.143

Villa - 0.375

Germany - 17.642

England - 17.375

In this scenario you are relying on Madrid to beat Bayern and Villa and Liverpool to get to/win their finals

 

Scenario 3

Man City - 0.125

Arsenal - 0.500

Bayern - 0.143

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham - 0.125

Dortmund - 0.143

Villa - 0.125

Germany - 17.214

England - 17.5

In this scenario, you only have Leverkusen left who can get a maximum of 1.142 points for Germany if they win the whole thing. You’d be relying on Liverpool or Arsenal to get to the final/win it

 

Scenario 4 - probably the most likely scenario 

Man City - 0.500

Arsenal - 0.500

Bayern - 0.143

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham - 0.125

Dortmund - 0.143

Villa - 0.375

Germany - 17.214

England - 18.25

In this scenario, only Leverkusen left with a maximum of 1.142 points available - i.e. max Germany can get is 18.356. England would just need to draw one game to get 2nd place in this scenario. I am discounting France and Spain as they are so far behind. 

+

Just to add a 5th Scenario i.e. if City and Arsenal go out.

Scenario 5 - Madrid, Bayern, Liverpool, Leverkusen, Ath Madrid, Villa go through

Assume whoever goes through gets a draw away from home and a win at home

Current points totals are as follows

Germany - 16.357

England - 16.250

Scenario 5

Man City - 0.125

Arsenal - 0.125

Bayern - 0.571

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.571

West Ham - 0.125

Dortumund - 0.143

Villa - 0.375

Germany - 17.642

England - 17.500

Scenario 5a - Madrid beat Bayern, Liverpool and Leverkusen get to the final, Villa go to the final

Bayern - 0.143

Liverpool - 0.500

Leverkusen - 0.500

Villa - 0.500

Germany - 18.285

England - 18.500

So not all hope is lost if both City and Arsenal lose. It just depends the manner of the defeats and if we can get 2 of Liverpool/West Ham/Villa into the final. 

Does your scenario four account for the fact that if both Arsenal and City go through, we’re guaranteed more points because they play each other in the semi finals? Sorry if you’ve covered that already!