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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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1 minute ago, Adam2003 said:

I only watched some but interesting to read that vs the stats - Everton had 23 shots at Old Trafford! That can’t happen too regularly even these days. But trust your eye test - sometimes games can still feel very comfortable even if the stats are skewed, especially with an early lead.

Loads of shots don't have to mean quality chances.

Everton huffed and puffed without causing any big problems.

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4 minutes ago, Pinebro said:

Loads of shots don't have to mean quality chances.

Everton huffed and puffed without causing any big problems.

 

Everton had the better chances aside from the penalties but never looked like they believed they would score. Man Utd still have no control of matches which will be a problem v more ruthless teams.

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1 hour ago, colhint said:

This year we got 8 places because West ham won the ECL last year and qualified for EL despite finishing outside top 7. Giving us 8 places in Europe. This season Liverpool will probably win it but they will probably qualify for CL through league position. So back down to seven. This year Germany had 7 teams in Europe. I gives us an advantage to have more teams picking up points for the following season.

How is at an advantage to have more teams though?

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1 hour ago, allani said:

More of our rivals also playing weekend - midweek - weekend and having to manage those extra games rather than being able to rest between league matches.  Newcastle and Brighton have both struggled at times this season in part because of the extra matches they've had to play, the quick turnaround and the extra demands that puts on their players and squads.

Emery's been able (so far) to balance this to an extent by us not having to play at the same intensity in our European matches - which will be more difficult next season assuming we qualify for either the CL or the Europa. 

I meant purely in terms of more teams in Europe to acquire points for the 5th CL spot the following season. It doesn't really matter how many teams are involved if they do well. You don't really want only one because they might just crash out, but that's irrelevant when England will always have at least 7 teams.

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1 minute ago, fightoffyour said:

I meant purely in terms of more teams in Europe to acquire points for the 5th CL spot the following season. It doesn't really matter how many teams are involved if they do well. You don't really want only one because they might just crash out, but that's irrelevant when England will always have at least 7 teams.

OK.  In that case yes - it is better to have 5 teams that will progress deep into the competitions they are in, than 8 where 3 teams drop out early and the other 5 progress deep (as I think the coeffecient points are pro-rataed based on the number of team who entered European competitions rather than the number left).

I had been thinking more in terms of minimising the impact on our league campaign of playing more games than our rivals.  🙂

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43 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

How is at an advantage to have more teams though?

Each team contributes to there own counties total. So if we win or Liverpool,Man  C etc. It all goes to the premiere league total. This season the premiere league had 8 teams contribute whereas Germany only had 7. If the 6  teams all win next week but Brighton still go out. That would mean we still have 5 teams in the last 8 but Germany would only have 3 still contributing to the total. Man U and newcastle still contributed with any win or draw even though they went out early.

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8 minutes ago, colhint said:

Each team contributes to there own counties total. So if we win or Liverpool,Man  C etc. It all goes to the premiere league total. This season the premiere league had 8 teams contribute whereas Germany only had 7. If the 6  teams all win next week but Brighton still go out. That would mean we still have 5 teams in the last 8 but Germany would only have 3 still contributing to the total. Man U and newcastle still contributed with any win or draw even though they went out early.

Except the coefficient is amended based on the number of teams that enter.  So each point gained is then adjusted by the number of teams in competition.  So each win for Germany's 7 teams earns them slightly more coefficient points than a win for England's 8.  (At least that is how I think it works but it's a bit complicated!)

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11 minutes ago, colhint said:

Each team contributes to there own counties total. So if we win or Liverpool,Man  C etc. It all goes to the premiere league total. This season the premiere league had 8 teams contribute whereas Germany only had 7. If the 6  teams all win next week but Brighton still go out. That would mean we still have 5 teams in the last 8 but Germany would only have 3 still contributing to the total. Man U and newcastle still contributed with any win or draw even though they went out early.

But it's divided by the total number of teams at the beginning...

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Yes I know but as teams get knocked out it improves your chances. So if we win 5 next week, going into the last 8, if all of our teams win in the first leg of the quarter final that would equate to, two points for a win divided by 8 totalling 1.25 points. Germany's 3 teams win equates to 3*2/7 equal 0.85 points.

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I don’t give a crap about other English teams. We finish 4th and it’s job done. I’d love it if We get 4th and both City and Liverscum lose in the Finals so 5th doesn’t get CL. 

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6 minutes ago, Sulberto21 said:

I don’t give a crap about other English teams. We finish 4th and it’s job done. I’d love it if We get 4th and both City and Liverscum lose in the Finals so 5th doesn’t get CL. 

I think everyone agrees with that, but as long as we might not finish 4th we have to hope for the extra place.

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2 hours ago, Pinebro said:

Man Utd just reminds me of that one annoying mosquito that just won't go away

Yep. Win tomorrow will be an absolutely huge step. Lose, and spurs are right on our arse and man u still hovering. I am under no illusions man u could shithouse their way to 8 or 9 wins in a row.

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8 hours ago, omariqy said:

True to an extent but it Bayern Dortumund Leverkusen and Freiburg get to the final or semi final then there's still a chance they picked up enough points to beat England regardless of 2 English teams winning the tournaments 

Italy and Spain will miss out then unless there's some weird formula where they get bonus points just for reaching Quarters or SF.

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11 minutes ago, VillaJ100 said:

Yep. Win tomorrow will be an absolutely huge step. Lose, and spurs are right on our arse and man u still hovering. I am under no illusions man u could shithouse their way to 8 or 9 wins in a row.

They won't.

Their chance was after beating us and they blew it by losing at home to Fulham, will have a few more results like that in the run in.

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12 minutes ago, VillaJ100 said:

Yep. Win tomorrow will be an absolutely huge step. Lose, and spurs are right on our arse and man u still hovering. I am under no illusions man u could shithouse their way to 8 or 9 wins in a row.

I don’t think they could, that view is just based the old Ferguson Man Utd.  This Man Utd will win some and lose some, they can be just as bad as anything.  If they overtake us, it’s because we’ve collapsed somewhat.  If they win 8 out of 10, they’ll be on 71 points which means we need 16 points from 11 games/33 points, which means we have dropped to 1.5ppg, so we’d have to be worse than that which is a collapse for us under Emery.

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18 minutes ago, VillaJ100 said:

Yep. Win tomorrow will be an absolutely huge step. Lose, and spurs are right on our arse and man u still hovering. I am under no illusions man u could shithouse their way to 8 or 9 wins in a row.

I had a quick look at their fixtures, looks hard to get any momentum going, they've got Chelsea away and can get a big boosting win... Followed by Liverpool, they've got Bournemouth and can win that but followed by Newcastle, they've got palace and Burnley followed by arsenal 

If they win 8 or 9 in a row and catch us then as bad as they look fair play to them they will deserve it, I say that because no way in hell do they do it 

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4 minutes ago, nick76 said:

I don’t think they could, that view is just based the old Ferguson Man Utd.  This Man Utd will win some and lose some, they can be just as bad as anything.  If they overtake us, it’s because we’ve collapsed somewhat.  If they win 8 out of 10, they’ll be on 71 points which means we need 16 points from 11 games/33 points, which means we have dropped to 1.5ppg, so we’d have to be worse than that which is a collapse for us under Emery.

True but we have had a spell of getting only 8 points from 7 games so you can never say never. 

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